At present, the domestic ABS market has a strong festive atmosphere. Businesses and downstream manufacturers gradually withdraw from the market and the transaction is weak due to the traditional long vacation. Before the Spring Festival, the market lacked rigid demand. The downstream factories mainly focused on digesting their inventory, which limited the market demand. The market of ABS has no hope of rising under the influence of obvious guiding factors, but under the support of favorable factors such as strong upstream monomer and favorable external disk, the market is unlikely to go down. It is expected that pre-holiday markets will be dominated by stalemate stability, and the mainstream prices of domestic materials will be mostly between 17600 and 18800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream prices of imported materials will be between 18,500 and 19,300 yuan/ton.
Holiday factors dilute the demand Traditional Spring Festival is approaching, and the cold weather in the north. Some downstream factories have been on vacations and the demand is approaching freezing point. The factories in East China and South China are pursuing on-demand purchases. Some manufacturers are optimistic about the year-after-year market and purchase small quantities in small quantities. This increases the ABS market. There is a certain negative effect. The market price of ABS is at a high level. Downstream factories have a feeling of resistance to the price, and purchases are limited. With the arrival of the Spring Festival, stocking will gradually decrease, which will weaken the support for market demand.
At present, the household appliances and auto industries still maintain a low season, and the operating rate has dropped to around 50%. The market generally pays less attention to ABS. Due to the lack of demand, it is difficult for long positions to gather and traders generally wait and see. Near the Spring Festival, the holders of the goods were blocked, and the transactions gradually contracted; the middlemen were predisposed to the high risk of the holiday and favored the clearance operation for the New Year and the intention of stocking was not high; the well-funded merchants were ready to operate the market after the year, and it was difficult to drive the market demand before the Spring Festival. .
Lack of cost support At present, cost support is limited. The price of styrene and other monomers in the upstream raw material is at a high level, which has a limited effect on the downturn of the ABS market. However, before the Spring Festival, the upstream market is in a state of consolidation, and it is difficult to have a big job. It is difficult to provide the impetus for the ABS market price to rise.
Styrene market spot price is relatively strong, but the lack of buying conditions is difficult to change in a short time, the majority of market players are middlemen; a large number of ocean freight arrived in Hong Kong, making East China stocks jumped to more than 120,000 tons, sales pressure In spite of this, some small and medium-sized traders had strong intentions for clearance before the holidays, and their active shipments increased. In addition, although some domestic large-scale terminal operators have optimistic expectations for the medium and long-term market, due to the fact that there are more ** contracts in various homes, at least there is no intention to purchase before the holiday, and there is a lack of effective follow-up of demand, and it is reasonable to expect market prices to fall.
The supply and demand side of the acrylonitrile market is weak, and the market continues to be steady. The overall market conditions are stable, and the weak supply and demand situation is difficult to change. The current downstream ABS industry, small and medium-sized retailers started to cut down, the acceptance of high-priced acrylonitrile is limited, and purchase orders have been reduced. The market demand for butadiene has been exhausted, which has constrained the market's rise. The start-up of downstream ABS companies is not full, but the market price of butadiene is still consolidating at a high level. The situation of receiving goods in the downstream market is a little weak, and the high price effect has led to a more gradual atmosphere in the domestic butadiene market, and the downstream inquiry has not. Obviously better.
The three-fold favorable for the future market ABS market despite multiple negative factors, the same good can not be ignored:
The first is low inventory. At present, the operating rate of domestic ABS devices is approximately 85%. A production line in Shanghai Gaoqiao continues to stop and overhaul, and the remaining two lines start at about 60%. In the near future, the company's equipment is operating normally, the start of work is normal, and there are no sales pressures. At the same time, after downstream companies destocking, maintaining normal production requires replenishment.
Followed by a good external disk. The Asian ABS market continued to rise with butadiene and acrylonitrile prices, and the market price continued to rise. In Southeast Asia, Thailand IRPC spot market is in a state of recession. Due to technical problems, its 120,000 tons/year installation reduces the operating rate to 60%. IRPC plans to raise the operating rate to 80% in February, which increases the current market gap.
Again, there is ample funding. In January, the expected number of credit blowouts and credits exceeded RMB 500 billion in the first week, making the market’s take-up sentiment unprecedentedly higher. The domestic super currency will inevitably cause inflation, and only the price increase can stabilize the risk brought by the super-currency.
Looking ahead to the ABS market outlook, although the pre-holiday prices were blocked, the post-holiday situation was excellent. With the gradual increase in the operating rate of downstream companies and the low inventory, it is expected that the market will be very positive in the second half of February, and the gap between purchase intention and spot supply will be narrowed, which will bring a wave of rising prices to the ABS market.
Holiday factors dilute the demand Traditional Spring Festival is approaching, and the cold weather in the north. Some downstream factories have been on vacations and the demand is approaching freezing point. The factories in East China and South China are pursuing on-demand purchases. Some manufacturers are optimistic about the year-after-year market and purchase small quantities in small quantities. This increases the ABS market. There is a certain negative effect. The market price of ABS is at a high level. Downstream factories have a feeling of resistance to the price, and purchases are limited. With the arrival of the Spring Festival, stocking will gradually decrease, which will weaken the support for market demand.
At present, the household appliances and auto industries still maintain a low season, and the operating rate has dropped to around 50%. The market generally pays less attention to ABS. Due to the lack of demand, it is difficult for long positions to gather and traders generally wait and see. Near the Spring Festival, the holders of the goods were blocked, and the transactions gradually contracted; the middlemen were predisposed to the high risk of the holiday and favored the clearance operation for the New Year and the intention of stocking was not high; the well-funded merchants were ready to operate the market after the year, and it was difficult to drive the market demand before the Spring Festival. .
Lack of cost support At present, cost support is limited. The price of styrene and other monomers in the upstream raw material is at a high level, which has a limited effect on the downturn of the ABS market. However, before the Spring Festival, the upstream market is in a state of consolidation, and it is difficult to have a big job. It is difficult to provide the impetus for the ABS market price to rise.
Styrene market spot price is relatively strong, but the lack of buying conditions is difficult to change in a short time, the majority of market players are middlemen; a large number of ocean freight arrived in Hong Kong, making East China stocks jumped to more than 120,000 tons, sales pressure In spite of this, some small and medium-sized traders had strong intentions for clearance before the holidays, and their active shipments increased. In addition, although some domestic large-scale terminal operators have optimistic expectations for the medium and long-term market, due to the fact that there are more ** contracts in various homes, at least there is no intention to purchase before the holiday, and there is a lack of effective follow-up of demand, and it is reasonable to expect market prices to fall.
The supply and demand side of the acrylonitrile market is weak, and the market continues to be steady. The overall market conditions are stable, and the weak supply and demand situation is difficult to change. The current downstream ABS industry, small and medium-sized retailers started to cut down, the acceptance of high-priced acrylonitrile is limited, and purchase orders have been reduced. The market demand for butadiene has been exhausted, which has constrained the market's rise. The start-up of downstream ABS companies is not full, but the market price of butadiene is still consolidating at a high level. The situation of receiving goods in the downstream market is a little weak, and the high price effect has led to a more gradual atmosphere in the domestic butadiene market, and the downstream inquiry has not. Obviously better.
The three-fold favorable for the future market ABS market despite multiple negative factors, the same good can not be ignored:
The first is low inventory. At present, the operating rate of domestic ABS devices is approximately 85%. A production line in Shanghai Gaoqiao continues to stop and overhaul, and the remaining two lines start at about 60%. In the near future, the company's equipment is operating normally, the start of work is normal, and there are no sales pressures. At the same time, after downstream companies destocking, maintaining normal production requires replenishment.
Followed by a good external disk. The Asian ABS market continued to rise with butadiene and acrylonitrile prices, and the market price continued to rise. In Southeast Asia, Thailand IRPC spot market is in a state of recession. Due to technical problems, its 120,000 tons/year installation reduces the operating rate to 60%. IRPC plans to raise the operating rate to 80% in February, which increases the current market gap.
Again, there is ample funding. In January, the expected number of credit blowouts and credits exceeded RMB 500 billion in the first week, making the market’s take-up sentiment unprecedentedly higher. The domestic super currency will inevitably cause inflation, and only the price increase can stabilize the risk brought by the super-currency.
Looking ahead to the ABS market outlook, although the pre-holiday prices were blocked, the post-holiday situation was excellent. With the gradual increase in the operating rate of downstream companies and the low inventory, it is expected that the market will be very positive in the second half of February, and the gap between purchase intention and spot supply will be narrowed, which will bring a wave of rising prices to the ABS market.
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