Foreword: At the end of the year and the end of the year, looking back, the global shipbuilding industry in 2013 can be described as faltering and difficult. Stop in the distance, in the new year, where is the ship industry going?
Since the reform and opening up, China's shipbuilding industry has been striving to open up the international market and successfully built itself into an export-oriented industry. However, this has also led to a high degree of external dependence on the shipbuilding industry, which has been deeply affected by the international economic downturn in recent years.
Since 2008, due to the financial crisis, international trade and investment have gradually declined, and global shipping demand has weakened, and the shipping market has been hit hard. The downturn in the shipping industry has severely hit the demand of the shipbuilding industry.
The housing leaks have been in the rain all night. Under the influence of the financial crisis, the liquidity of the banking industry has made the international shipbuilding industry worse.
In addition to financing difficulties, the shipbuilding industry currently has a predicament of overcapacity. Since the Chinese shipbuilding industry entered the golden age in 2004, the number of Chinese shipyards has begun to grow rapidly. According to incomplete statistics, there are now more than 1,600 shipyards in mainland China.
A number of unfavorable factors have been attacked. Since the end of 2011, a large number of shipbuilding enterprises in Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Shandong Province and other major shipbuilding provinces have been caught in the predicament of underemployment or work stoppage. Enterprises have declared bankruptcy and bankruptcy.
In order to find a way out, most of the domestic powerful ship companies are looking at the offshore engineering equipment industry. Unlike the new shipbuilding market, the offshore market is relatively less affected by the world economy and has a bright future under the influence of global energy demand. In this respect, the old rival Korean shipbuilding company has given Chinese companies an unforgettable lesson: Although the throne of "the world's first shipbuilding" was taken away by China in 2010, the Korean shipbuilding industry immediately achieved orders with a large number of offshore equipment. Reversal, regaining the first. In recent years, offshore equipment has become the flagship product of several major shipping companies in Korea. It is conceivable that it is not a day's work for Korean shipping companies to make a big impact in the offshore market. It has been through careful market analysis and a lot of technical research and development before they can make a lot of money. Therefore, in the offshore industry, the Chinese shipbuilding industry still needs to catch up. On the other hand, in order to achieve China's goal of developing a marine economy and building a maritime power, China's mainstream shipping companies should advance into this dark blue sea as soon as possible, speed up the pace of product structure adjustment, and high-tech in icebreakers, drilling ships, and seabed pipelaying vessels. And high value-added products have made achievements, which will lay the foundation for the future development of the international market.
Shipbuilding price fell back 23 years ago
Most of the boats are operating at a loss
In 2013, the shipbuilding industry was in a state where old orders had been completed and new orders were too small. The downturn in the shipping industry and the downturn in the shipbuilding industry have directly led to the unsustainable days of shipyards.
"The price of the shipyard selling the ship is only the cost price of the labor cost and the material cost. In order to maintain the operation, the private ship company will take the order even if it loses money." This is the true survival of most boat companies in 2013. Once the shipyard is idle, most of the small boat factories will lose more than one million yuan a day. In order to maintain the daily operation of the shipyard, the shipyard would have to pay for it at a loss.
In fact, after most shipyards completed the orders they had taken earlier, the shipyards that entered 2013 were faced with no singles and no living conditions.
According to statistics, since the beginning of 2013, 153 shipyards have held orders. However, some analysts believe that more than half of the shipyards have no orders from next year (regardless of factors such as delayed delivery). In the words of the person in charge of a shipyard, "no order can only be given to workers."
From 2011 to now, a large number of shipbuilding enterprises in Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Shandong Province and other major shipbuilding provinces have been mired in the predicament of underemployment or shutdown. During this period, many large shipbuilding companies have successively declared bankruptcy and bankruptcy.
The reduction in orders has intensified competition in the shipbuilding industry, and the price of the ship in 2013 fell to a low point due to fierce competition. From the price chart of new shipbuilding, the new shipbuilding price in 2013 is generally the same as the ship price in 1991. It can be seen that since the shipbuilding price reached its peak in 2008, the current new shipbuilding price has fallen back to 23 years ago.
According to Shao Ping, chief representative of Platou's Shanghai office, the new ship price has continued to fall since the financial crisis. The overall level has fallen by 30% compared with the crisis, and the price of some subdivided ship types has dropped by 40% to 50. %.
A market person in a large joint venture shipbuilding company said that some customers are willing to place orders at low prices. Although the number of new ship orders this year is higher than last year, the profits are not comparable to those of previous years. “Now the profit rate is too bad. Although the price is higher than last year, it is still in a trough, which is about 30% lower than the peak period.â€
It is difficult for a clever woman to have no rice. Not only are many shipbuilding companies difficult to accept orders, but even large ship companies are tightening their belts. The shipyard’s income is ashamed to see people. According to statistics, from January to October 2013, 80 key monitoring enterprises in the shipbuilding industry completed a total industrial output value of 289.6 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises were 149 billion yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year; ship supporting enterprises were 21 billion yuan, down 18.7% year-on-year; ship repairing enterprises were 9.9 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year.
According to other data, from January to October 2013, 80 key monitoring enterprises in the shipbuilding industry achieved a revenue of RMB 20 billion from the main business, down 13.9% year-on-year; total profit was 5.23 billion yuan, down 49.8% year-on-year.
CSSC announced in the third quarterly report of 2013 that the company's net profit loss for the first three quarters was 947.83 million yuan, and the loss increased by 37 times.
China’s largest civil shipbuilding company, Rongsheng Heavy Industry, also had a salary in the early July of this year due to the inability to pay wages in time for some of the Rongsheng heavy labor dispatchers. Although Chang Jianhua, the company's vice president, responded that the wage-paying workers were due to the arrears of wages of the labor service companies, rather than the heavy wages of the heavy-duty workers, the industry still questioned the status of the Rongsheng heavy industry capital chain.
Fortunately, in 2013, the price of the ship has fallen, and the international shipowners took the opportunity to bargain-hunt and buy a ship. This has also made some of the “hungry and thirsty†ship companies reborn.
According to the economic performance of the national shipbuilding industry released by China Shipbuilding Industry Association from January to October 2013, from January to October, the country's new ship orders were 46.44 million DWT, an increase of 183% over the same period of last year; According to the latest statistics of the company, in the first 10 months, the global new ship orders totaled 35.56 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 74%.
In the face of the substantial increase in orders for new ships, some ship companies believe that this is a precursor to the recovery of the shipbuilding industry. So, is this a signal of the recovery of the shipbuilding industry?
In this regard, the reporter consulted a number of shipbuilding companies and industry analysts, the answer is no. Most people are not optimistic about the shipbuilding industry today. Most of them think that "this year's new orders will be mostly concentrated in large shipbuilding enterprises, and most SMEs still have no single order."
This can only show that the days of those small boat factories that look forward to the recovery of the industry and get a chance to survive will be more and more difficult. With the increasing number of new shipbuilding orders from China's first-line shipyards, the number of shipyards that start construction will continue to decline, and a large number of small boat factories will face increasing pressure. Under such circumstances, I am afraid that a large number of unskilled and competitive small boat factories will be abandoned by the market, and the industry concentration of the shipbuilding industry will be strengthened. Future orders will be concentrated on large and powerful shipbuilding enterprises.
Shipbuilding industry overcapacity is difficult to remove
Over 800 shipping companies face shuffling
Since the Chinese shipbuilding industry entered the golden age in 2004, the number of Chinese shipyards has begun to grow rapidly. Any business owner who is in contact with shipbuilding, or even a business owner who is irrelevant, has swarmed and become a member of the shipbuilding army.
"There are too many shipbuilding companies in China." Wu Yousheng, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and honorary director of the China Ship Science Research Center, once sighed at the media. According to Wu Yousheng, from 2006 to 2010, the number of shipbuilding enterprises with a capacity of 300,000 tons increased from 7 to 33, and the number of shipyards with 100,000 tons increased from 17 to 59. In Taizhou, Zhejiang alone, there are more than 200 shipbuilding companies, of which nearly 60% are established after 2004.
Rapid growth directly leads to overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry. Some analysts believe that the overcapacity of the shipbuilding industry is closely related to the shipbuilding boom from 2005 to 2008. However, some market participants pointed out that the industrial revitalization policies introduced by relevant departments during the global financial crisis also played a certain role.
In June 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promulgated the “Detailed Rules for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Shipbuilding Industryâ€, which requires increased credit support for production and operation, increased credit for import buyers, and encourages the purchase of abandoned ships. By 2011, shipbuilding output reached 50 million tons, and in 2011 China's shipbuilding completions accounted for more than 35% of the world's shipbuilding completion.
Under the stimulus of the policy, shipyards have sprung up like mushrooms, and the shipbuilding industry has also set off a wave of expansion.
While the shipbuilding industry is booming, the total number of orders received by Chinese shipyards has directly jumped to the top in the world. However, the rapid increase and expansion of shipyards has also produced overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry, which is still a major problem in the industry today.
Officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that at the end of 2012, China's ships had an annual production capacity of 80.1 million DWT and a capacity utilization rate of 75%. However, according to the latest statistics, in the first three quarters of 2013, the capacity utilization rate of China's shipbuilding industry was only 50% to 55%. How to solve the problem of overcapacity has been put on the agenda.
Officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told reporters that there are currently about 800 domestic shipping companies, which is far from the international average. If compared with only 20 shipping companies in Korea, the number of domestic shipping companies is 40 times that of Korean shipping companies.
It can be seen from the above figures that the domestic shipyards are in line with the international average level, and the difficulty can be imagined. Most people in the industry are not optimistic about this. Most small and medium-sized shipbuilding companies are holding the industry downturn and waiting for the industry to recover.
Officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have said that they hope that those shipbuilding enterprises waiting for the industry to pick up will see the situation and withdraw from the market early, so as not to be lucky. The market is getting better, and it is hard to say whether 800 shipping companies can survive.
In order to resolve the problem of overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry, the State Council issued the “Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2013-2015)†in August 2013, proposing adjustment and implementation to promote the early retirement of old transport vessels and single-hull tankers. Updated policy to December 31, 2015.
Two months later, on October 15, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Severe Overcapacity", which provides guidance on the current contradiction between the five major industries of steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and ships. Sexual opinion. Among them, the shipbuilding capacity utilization rate is only 75%, which is significantly lower than the international average.
On November 13, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Standard Conditions for the Shipbuilding Industry", aiming at further strengthening the management of the shipbuilding industry, resolving the contradiction of overcapacity, accelerating structural adjustment, upgrading the technical level, promoting transformation and upgrading, and guiding the sustainable and healthy development of the shipbuilding industry.
In order to solve the problem of overcapacity, the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have successively announced three measures in a three-month period. The strength of the policy is not small.
At the same time, the problem of overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry has been on the rise. Not only has the blind expansion of domestic shipbuilding capacity been curbed, but the total capacity has not increased. At the same time, with the steady advancement of shipbuilding enterprises' mergers and acquisitions, the concentration of the shipbuilding industry has begun to increase.
However, although the blind expansion of shipbuilding capacity has been curbed, this does not mean that the overcapacity problem in the industry has been resolved. In the conversation between the reporter and many insiders, at present, although the number of new orders has increased, this does not mean that the shipowner is short of the ship, but because the ship price is too low, there will be speculative shipowners. In fact, there are still some hidden capacity in the current shipping market. Under this premise, no one can predict when the shipbuilding industry will recover.
Shipbuilding industry set off a wave of transformation
Super hundred shipbuilding companies flock to the offshore equipment industry
Overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry, ship prices falling into a trough, no new orders to pick up, etc., all factors directly lead to many small and medium shipyards have closed down, the small boat factory that is still stuck without collapse is also in a state of closure at any time. More insiders pointed out that shipbuilding enterprises will face a crisis of bankruptcy without transformation.
The most important thing is that 70% of the domestic shipbuilding industry competes in the low-end market at the same time, which directly intensifies the overcapacity in the low-end market of the domestic shipbuilding industry and the lack of high-end market. Transformation and upgrading is the best way to solve the shortcomings of the shipbuilding industry.
In order to save the shipbuilding industry in the trough, the State Council and relevant departments have successively issued a series of planning documents on the shipbuilding industry. Such as "Shipbuilding Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", "Shipbuilding Industry Twelve Development Plan", as well as "National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions issued "Aerospace Engineering Equipment Industry Innovation Development Strategy", "Maritime Engineering Equipment Manufacturing Medium and Long-term Development Plan" 》.
In August 2013, the State Council of China issued the “Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2013-2015)â€, emphasizing efforts to improve product structure, upgrade technical structure, optimize organizational structure, adjust layout structure, and resolve the contradiction of overcapacity. Improve the core competitiveness of the industry.
Li Yanqing, director of the China Ship Information Center, said that the plan is aimed at the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the development of China's shipbuilding industry, with the strategic goal of building a shipbuilding power and a maritime power.
With the support of the policy, the shipbuilding industry has set off a wave of large-scale transformation and upgrading. Among them, the most popular shipbuilding enterprises are the transformation of marine engineering equipment industry. More market forecasts suggest that “the average annual investment in world offshore oil and gas development from 2013 to 2018 is above US$327 billion. If estimated at 20%-25%, the annual demand for offshore equipment market will be US$65 billion to US$81 billion. between".
Under the temptation of a bright future, more and more shipbuilding companies are swarming. According to the incomplete statistics of the "Securities Daily" reporters, at present, more than one hundred shipbuilding enterprises have been transformed into the marine engineering equipment industry.
The industry generally believes that marine development will be a major focus of future economic development. This kind of cognition has made the offshore industry extremely prosperous, and many shipbuilding companies want to enter the offshore industry. However, the technical threshold of offshore business is high, which blocks most shipbuilding enterprises from entering. Even if the enterprises with successful transformation, how to gain competitive advantage will be a new problem for enterprises.
In 2013, some of the ship companies that have already been transformed have gained a lot. After completing the repair work of the first jack-up rig, Pacific (Zhoushan) Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. received an order for a marine engineering life platform worth US$250 million this year. It is expected to be completed in about one and a half years.
In addition, Zhenhua Heavy Industry also publicly stated this year that the company has successfully obtained orders for 1+1 400-ton jack-up rigs from European customers. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding & Ocean Engineering Co., Ltd. also signed a 2+2 offshore platform supply vessel contract with Singapore Shipowners this year.
It is considered by the market that the most successful transformation is China Heavy Industry. The company announced that the order announcement from January to September 2013 showed that the company’s military and military trade and marine economic business sectors experienced explosive growth. The new orders from January to September were 55.484 billion yuan. . Military industry and military trade accounted for the majority, and marine economic business grew by about 7 times year-on-year.
For the successful transformation of China Heavy Industry, some analysts pointed out that while the domestic development of marine business is vigorously carried out, the relevant military industry that protects the marine business has also emerged, and China Heavy Industry has become a leader.
The transformation of the ultra-100 shipping companies into the offshore engineering equipment industry is not an easy task, nor is it a "fall in the sky." This should start from the changes in the international ship market.
The top three producers of the international shipping industry are South Korea, Japan and China. Among them, South Korea is at the forefront, benefiting from the gradual withdrawal of Korean shipbuilding companies from the low-end market of offshore engineering equipment, turning to the opportunity of high-end market development in marine engineering, domestic shipbuilding. Enterprises can take the opportunity to enter the offshore engineering equipment industry.
Of course, the withdrawal of Korean shipbuilding companies from the low-end marine engineering equipment industry is not due to the gentleman's demeanor, but the high returns brought by its mid-range and high-end products.
According to a shipyard owner who has been transformed into a marine engineering equipment industry, the company disclosed that although the company also produces offshore equipment products, the company's profits are not high, only a small profit.
Although China's shipbuilding industry is mainly engaged in low-end equipment manufacturing, some large domestic shipbuilding companies are working hard to enter the high-end market. In view of factors such as lack of experience and restrictions on survival patterns, domestic shipbuilding companies still have a way to go.
From the previous historical experience, it is obviously not feasible for domestic shipbuilding enterprises to build low-end ships. In the face of the transformation of the offshore engineering equipment industry by over 100 companies, the industry is also worried, lest the industry will once again have overcapacity. In this regard, most industry insiders put forward pertinent suggestions, and hope that shipbuilding enterprises can increase investment in special ships within their capabilities.
In 2013, in addition to the booming marine engineering equipment industry, green environmental protection and energy-saving ships became the darling of the ship industry in 2013. In view of the high oil prices, the shipowners' requirements for ships are more likely to save energy and reduce emissions, thereby relieving the shipping company's operating cost pressure. Most of the new orders in 2013 were mainly based on such ships.
The east side is not bright and the west side is bright. Summarizing the shipbuilding industry in 2013, there is a big meaning that “transformers have eternal lifeâ€. Even if they do not reach eternal life, at least in the process of shuffling the shipbuilding industry, the hope of survival is greater.
For the future of the shipbuilding industry, some insiders believe that China's shipbuilding industry may undergo such new changes in the next few years. The backward and excess capacity will be phased out, and production will flow to high-end areas. China not only occupies a quantitative advantage in the world shipbuilding industry. It will also reveal technical advantages.
Shipbreaking subsidies "eccentric" shipping industry
The shipbuilding industry has had a bad time in 2013, but what does it mean for the shipbuilding industry after the release of the shipbreaking subsidy policy in December?
According to the four ministries and commissions (Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Finance, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) jointly issued the "Reconstruction Plan for the Early Retirement of Old Transport Vessels and Single-Shell Tankers" (hereinafter referred to as the "Program"), It mainly encourages the retiring and renewal of old Chinese transport vessels and single-hull tankers with ocean and coastal operation qualifications. The basic subsidy amount is 1,500 yuan/total ton. The subsidy funds are divided into 50% of the proportions after completion of shipbreaking and shipbuilding. Issued twice.
Since the introduction of the shipbreaking subsidy policy, the industry has a different attitude towards this policy.
Some analysts believe that this policy is good news for the shipbuilding industry. On the one hand, this policy helps to promote the withdrawal of old transport vessels from the market and promote the structural adjustment of the shipbuilding industry; on the other hand, the creation of orders for the shipbuilding industry through policy means is conducive to expanding the market demand for ships and stabilizing ship production.
However, some insiders pointed out that when the policy comes out, it means that those shipping companies that want to buy a new ship if they want to get a ship-breaking subsidy can get a 50% ship-breaking subsidy without buying a new ship. Some people think that this policy will undoubtedly make the shipbuilding industry without orders available even worse.
Regardless of whether the focus of the new shipbreaking policy is biased towards the shipping industry, the introduction of this policy does not benefit all shipping industries.
According to the provisions of the “Proposalâ€, the mandatory retirement age or the single-shell tanker elimination time is 1 to 10 years ahead of time. Take the dry bulk carrier as an example. Generally, the age of forced scrapping is about 33 years, that is to say, Ships with a ship age of 23 years or more can be subsidized if they are scrapped in advance.
This means that in recent years, newly established shipping companies cannot enjoy preferential policies for ship recycling subsidies. Since the age limit is more than 23 years, the beneficial ship companies will be established for at least 23 years. Some analysts pointed out that *ST Ocean Shipping, COSCO Shipping, CSCL, China Shipping Development, China Merchants Steamship and other established shipping companies will benefit a lot.
Wang Kangtian, chief accountant of China Shipping Development, publicly stated that now we have six to seven 20,000-ton boats that have been sealed and not in operation. These ships basically meet the subsidy standards for shipbreaking listed in the policy and are expected to be demolished. Wang Kangtian said that the company's 30 old ships built in the 1990s finally had "capital" eliminated.
In addition, *ST Ocean Shipping Secretary-General Guo Huawei's attitude toward shipbreaking subsidies is relatively indifferent. He told reporters that the company has been constantly adjusting the company's ships because of the long time of the company's establishment and the number of old ships. It stated that the company will not adjust the ship structure due to policy changes.
At present, the industry's introduction of this policy can speed up the renewal and transformation of the shipping industry and the wait-and-see attitude of upgrading, whether it can be effective or not.
In addition, the current policies also support the construction of official ships such as maritime administrative law enforcement vessels, salvage salvage, resource surveys, and scientific investigations. Although this part of the order will not be too much, the policy also supports maritime security facilities, equipment and fishing boat renewal, which also brings orders for many shipyards, especially the large-scale investment in fishing boat renovation.
With the development and diversion of shipbuilding companies in different refinement areas, the shipbuilding industry in the future will avoid the homogenization and low-end competition in the previous industry, and thus turn to the development of specialization.
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