The latest foreign markets understand that because the credit market crisis has cast a shadow over the global economic outlook, coupled with the rise in raw material prices, corporate profits have been weakened, and the views of large Japanese companies on the prospects of business conditions are not as optimistic as last quarter. The results of the Tankan survey released by the Bank of Japan last Friday showed that the large-scale manufacturing aerodynamic index has fallen from 23 to three in three months. This is the first decline since the index was in March 2007 and the lowest level since October 2005. The index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies that believe the business status is worse than the percentage of companies that believe the business status is deteriorating. Many companies surveyed expect the business environment to deteriorate. These companies believe that the domestic and international demand for their products will decline, so it is predicted that the large manufacturing business climate index will fall further by 4 points to 15 in the next short-term survey in March 2008. With the weakening of US consumer demand and the rising exchange rate of the yen, the loss of profits has increased, and many large exporters have become less optimistic as they were three months ago. At the same time, the sharp rise in the prices of crude oil and other raw materials has led to a decline in the business climate index of industries such as chemicals, food, and metals. But unlike manufacturing and other industries, the automotive industry's business climate index rose by 8 points from three months ago, boosted by strong exports and good sales momentum in the domestic market. At the same time, the level of prosperity in the shipbuilding industry and the precision machinery industry has also increased. The Tankan survey also showed that the expectations of large manufacturing companies for their net profit growth for the current fiscal year increased by 2.8 percentage points from three months ago to 16%. At the same time, the expectations of these companies for their growth in capital expenditures are still as high as 11%, compared with a drop of 1.1 percentage points three months ago.
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