Resilient Challenge of "Oil's Foreign Dependence"

In China, the issue of the foreign dependence of crude oil has become a heavy topic since 1993 that cannot be solved, opened up, or solved. For such a matter involving the national energy security plan, from the national government to the people of Lebanon, all are worried about it.

In particular, with the war in the Middle East and North Africa and the high level of world oil prices fluctuating, people’s nerves are closely affected by China’s excessive dependence on foreign oil.

The so-called degree of external dependence on crude oil refers to the foreign dependence on crude oil consumed by a country. The question of the dependence of crude oil on foreign countries, in the final analysis, is related to the issue of national energy security. In general, the higher the degree of foreign dependence, the greater the security risk.

However, some people think that the dependence of crude oil on some developed countries has been high, and it has not hindered economic development and has not encountered other risks. In fact, this is only a fluke. If there is a military war, oil decay, import disruption, etc., the consequences will be disastrous.

Data evolution "dependence" rises

In the face of the heavy topic of increasing dependence on crude oil in China, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have successively given different data, and compared with the United States over the same period of time, it has aroused the attention of the industry and beyond.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology disclosed in its report “The Economic Operation of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry in the First Half of 2011” that the apparent domestic oil consumption (output plus net imports) reached 198 million tons from January to May this year, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. Maintain rapid growth. Among them, the apparent consumption of crude oil was 191 million tons, an increase of 8.5%, and the foreign dependence rate was 55.2%, which exceeded the dependency ratio of 53.5% in the United States. The National Development and Reform Commission announced in the first half of the year that China's dependence on foreign crude oil was 54.8%, which was lower than the US level of 61% over the same period.

The two departments give slightly different degrees of dependence on crude oil, but they differ in calculation methods and angles. Although the degree of dependence on the degree of dependence on the United States has a large difference, we do not have much significance compared to the United States, because The country’s geopolitics, degree of development, and resource occurrence are all quite different. It can be said that there is not much comparable. It is better to concentrate on the study of China’s own oil issue and effectively resolve China’s own oil issue.

According to the National Statistics Bureau’s Industrial Statistics Express, from January to June 2011, the country’s crude oil production was 103 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. At the same time, according to the information provided by the State General Administration of Customs, from January to June 2011, the country’s crude oil imports totaled 126 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and the average monthly imports exceeded 21 million tons. As crude oil imports grew faster than domestic production, China’s crude oil dependence on foreign trade reached 55.4%.

According to relevant information, China's current oil consumption growth rate is 10.5%, which exceeds the growth rate of domestic GDP. The growth of oil consumption over GDP growth shows the basic characteristics of China's urbanization and industrialization economic development stage, namely, the rapid economic development and rapid increase in energy demand. The rapid growth of energy consumption has brought tremendous pressure on energy production, energy conservation and emission reduction.

Although it is not unexpected that China's crude oil dependence on the foreign economy continues to rise, but it is rising so fast and still rising in rigidity, it is something we do not want to see. Let us trace back to 1993, when China became the first net importer of oil, its foreign dependence was only 6%. Since then, it has been rising at a rate of around 2% each year, rising to 45% in 2006, 47% in 2007, 49% in 2008, and breaking the 50% alert line (51.3%) by 2009, reaching 53.7 in 2010. %.

According to data released by the National Energy Administration at the end of January 2010, China produced 189 million tons of crude oil in 2009. At the same time, net imports of crude oil reached 199 million tons. Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, oil imports have increased by about 10 million tons every year, and the degree of foreign dependence has been rising. Today, the imported oil has exceeded half of the annual consumption.

The prediction of the National Mineral Resources Planning (2008-2015) announced at the beginning of 2009 shows that if the exploration and transformation of economic development methods are not strengthened, China’s oil dependence will increase to 60% by 2020.

The Energy Blue Book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2010 predicts that after 10 years, China’s crude oil dependence on foreign markets will reach 64.5%.

The "China Energy Development Report (2009)" also made the same prediction that China's foreign oil dependence will increase to 64.5% by 2020.

The IEA's predictions are even more alarming. If China's crude oil demand growth rate remains unchanged in the future, the degree of import dependency may rise to 80%.

According to a report in The Gulf Times, Vienna, September 5, 2011, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in its latest report that despite the Chinese government’s efforts to curb domestic energy use, however, China's oil demand will increase the most next year, an increase of 5.4% over 2011. OPEC also pointed out in the report that in addition to China, the oil demand of the Middle East, India, Brazil, and other non-OECD countries will increase next year.

According to "Peak Peak" theoretical research experts predict that according to the current domestic economic development, the domestic oil demand in 2020 and 2030 will be 530 million tons and 650 million tons, respectively. China's oil production is expected to decrease after peaking in 2015, with peak output not exceeding 200 million tons. This means that China’s oil imports will increase. In 2020 and 2030, the domestic supply and demand gap will be 336 million tons and 488 million tons, respectively.

Research by the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission also confirms these predictions: China's oil demand in 2020 will be 450-600 million tons. At that time, the domestic oil production is estimated to be 180 million tons, and the import volume will be 270 million tons to 430 million tons, and the import dependence will be between 60% and 70%.

From all aspects of the prediction, one by one, similar data, although not impossible and may not be very accurate, but China's crude oil dependence on the degree of increasing year by year is an indisputable fact.

Difficult growth in oil consumption growth

As a developing country, China’s rapid economic development will inevitably accompany the growth of energy consumption. However, China’s dependence on crude oil growth is too fast, with an annual rate of about 3 percentage points. Coupled with the continued rise in crude oil prices, China’s energy pressure is constantly increasing. Increase.

The rapid development of China's economy will inevitably bring about an increase in energy demand, and will promote high dependence on crude oil imports. In recent years, China's economic average annual growth rate of 9% of GDP, especially the sustained and significant increase in car ownership, has made domestic oil resources far from satisfying the growth of demand and can only rely on imports from the international market. At present, China's energy demand is apt to increase.

The increase in China’s oil reserves will inevitably increase crude oil imports. Looking back at history, when New China was just established, China had been searching hard for oil because of oil imports. One of the important purposes is to solve the problem of the start-up of planes and cannons, that is, defense issues. But today, oil has changed from "national defense blood" to "economic blood." Today, China is building a crude oil strategic reserve base and is preparing to complete construction of oil depots and other hardware facilities in three phases in 15 years. This means that China’s crude oil imports will remain at a high level in the next few years.

The continuous increase in the number of cars will inevitably increase oil consumption. It is an indisputable fact that automobiles are the major oil consumers in China. According to data from the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, as of the end of August 2011, the number of motor vehicles in the country reached 219 million vehicles. Among them, the number of car ownership exceeded 100 million for the first time, accounting for 45.88% of the total number of motor vehicles.

Officials from the Department of Industrial Coordination of the National Development and Reform Commission recently pointed out that according to China's current growth rate of automobiles, the annual increase of refined oil consumed by automobiles is equivalent to the creation of a new 20-million-ton refinery. The newly added 100 million tons of oil refining capacity during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period was almost consumed by the 35 million new automobiles added in five years. According to the annual fuel consumption of 2.14 tons of domestic automobile cycles in 2009, the domestic automobile oil will reach 375 million tons in 2020.

It is understood that from 2001 to 2010, China’s oil consumption increased from 229 million tons to 439 million tons, and the degree of dependence on foreign oil increased from 30.2% to 53.7%.

“Although so far, the national energy authority has not released the “12th Five-Year Plan” energy development plan, but the main direction is clear.” On September 5, 2011, Xu Mingming, the counselor of the State Council and director of the National Energy Experts Advisory Committee, was When disclosing the main targets of energy development of the country during the 12th Five-Year Plan, it is said that providing safe, stable, economic, and clean energy security for economic and social development is the fundamental task of energy development during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”.

The three major goals of the "12th Five-Year Plan" for energy development are basically clear. One is the total goal. The total primary energy consumption is controlled at 4 billion tons of standard coal. Among them, the total coal consumption is controlled at about 4 billion tons, and the net import is 200 million tons; the total oil consumption is controlled at about 500 million tons, and the net import is 300 million tons. The second is structural goals. Non-fossil energy accounts for 11.4% of primary energy consumption, of which hydropower, nuclear power and wind power generate 920 billion, 320 billion and 180 billion kwh respectively, equivalent to approximately 460 million tons of standard coal. The third is the people's livelihood goal. Per capita energy consumption per capita reached 2.9 tons of standard coal, and the average annual per capita electricity consumption reached 4300 kWh, which was an increase of 20% and 30% respectively from 2010.

However, he does not worry about the analysis that if you add up the plates of energy consumption, the total energy consumption of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will exceed 5 billion tons of standard coal. Such consumption patterns will be unsustainable.

Reserves are bound to change

Petroleum safety is an important part of the national energy management mechanism. Therefore, to establish an oil security system, we must first start from the national level, such as accelerating the establishment and improvement of the petroleum strategic reserve system, and building a comprehensive oil crisis response mechanism. At the same time, domestic oil companies must actively cooperate with the government and earnestly assume the responsibility of ensuring oil security.

A major feature of China’s oil imports is the relatively concentrated source of imports, mainly from the Middle East and Africa. In 2008, 146 million tons of crude oil were imported from these two areas, accounting for 74.2% of the total imports. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that once war breaks out in the Middle East and Africa, disruption of the supply chain of crude oil will cause huge losses to China's economy. This scene is not a fantasy, the United States, Japan, Europe and other Western developed countries and regions on the oil crisis of the 1970s broke out in the panic caused by the panic has still been vividly remembered.

Under the existing energy structure, it is our necessary choice to broaden our import channels, diversify our oil import channels, change our reliance on sea-route imports, speed up the construction of land-based import energy strategic channels, and avoid or reduce the impact of geopolitical issues. At present, China's crude oil import channels have been gradually diversified. In addition to some countries in the Middle East, imports from Venezuela, Russia and other countries are also increasing. In particular, the opening of China-Russia crude oil pipeline has added a more stable crude oil import channel.

Recently, China's energy diplomacy steadily progressed in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, and the construction of three oil and gas pipelines started in succession. The powers and responsibilities of Central Asia in China's energy import strategy have further increased and the cooperation space is even broader.

An important way to protect domestic supply is to increase the "overseas oil search" and strive to get more shares of oil. However, it seems to be more and more difficult now. Expert analysis has two reasons: First, there is a risk of war or policy changes in the crude oil producing country. The latter risk mainly refers to the nationalization of assets, even if the oil field is divided into contracts. It also cannot guarantee production; Second, the current international oil and gas market is difficult to get the oil field share contract, and most of the cooperation has already begun to transform into an oilfield service contract.

In addition, there are other oil reserve options available compared to the share of oil. Lin Boqiang, for example, said that the China-Russian oil exchange agreement has been a move. China has provided 25 billion U.S. dollars to Russia in exchange for Russia’s 20-year total supply of 300 million tons of crude oil. In this cooperation, China did not invest in or participate in oilfield projects in crude oil sources, but instead signed a trade contract, which the experts dubbed “contract reserves”. In addition, if a contract in the form of trade can become the basis for lawsuits once the changes in cooperation are made, it seems to be more stable than the share of oil.

Safeguard ability still exists

From the point of view of a number of experts, the following consensus has basically emerged: Although China's dependence on oil imports exceeds 50%, it does not mean that China has lost its energy supply and demand protection capabilities. The effective measures to ensure the security of China's energy supply are also manifold. There is no need to panic or lose confidence.

China's oil supply has 190 million tons of output since the production, which is conducive to China's comfortable response to the international energy crisis.

China's energy structure has its own particularities. Coal resources are very abundant, accounting for about 70% of primary energy structures. Petroleum accounts for only 20% of energy consumption and is far below the international average of 34.8%.

China's oil and natural gas resources have huge potential. The second oil and gas resource evaluation data shows that China's oil resources are 94 billion tons, and natural gas is 38 trillion cubic meters. At present, the average proved degree of land petroleum resources is only 38%, while the exploration of natural gas resources is even lower, only about 6%, which is far lower than the proven rate of 45.6% of the world's oil and 22.45% of natural gas.

China's oil and gas supply is building a diversified supply system, and its overseas oil and gas business is developing rapidly. At present, China’s three major oil companies have more than 100 oil and gas projects in nearly 60 countries and regions in the world. The overseas oil and gas production and the production of equity have continued to increase. .

China has formed a reserve of alternative energy technologies, and renewable energy resources are also abundant. The country is accelerating the development of hydropower, and the increase in the supply of hydropower will undoubtedly ease the pressure on dependence on imported petroleum.

The construction of China's petroleum strategic reserve system has been accelerating. The first phase of the oil reserve project has been successfully completed. The new national oil reserve base and several Sinopec commercial oil reserve projects have also started construction.

The diversification trend of China's oil import channels has basically taken shape. It has signed agreements with Russia, Brazil, Venezuela and other countries for more than 600 billion U.S. dollars for the exchange of oil, and can obtain 75 million tons of oil security each year.

Although the relationship between foreign oil dependence and oil security is direct, the overall energy conditions and the characteristics of oil consumption in China also determine that we have great room for maneuvering. Despite the increasing dependence on foreign oil, China’s overall energy dependence on foreign energy is very low, and more than 80% of its energy is self-sufficient. The new oil consumption is mainly concentrated on the life-improving automobile oil. Such oil is very sensitive to the price and has little impact on the national economy. Even if there is a temporary shortage of oil, it can be regulated so as to increase the oil supply factor.

In spite of this, we must not take it lightly. Historically, the risk of oil safety problems directly caused by high external dependence has remained. This is especially true in countries where energy consumption structures are not yet mature. Therefore, it is not time to establish a sound strategic system to ensure oil security.

Calmly deal with not have to panic

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, China’s energy, especially oil and gas demand, will enter a period of sustained and full-scale growth in the future, and oil imports will continue to increase. Importing large quantities of oil from the international community will be an inevitable choice for China and depend on external factors. This curve will continue to rise. All kinds of predictions seem to be conveying a message: the high degree of foreign dependence on oil, China's future energy security will be in a "high risk" state.

Since oil is different from general commodities and has strategic attributes, it should pay enough attention to the fact that foreign dependence continues to rise. However, it should also be noted that whether or not a country's energy security involves many factors does not depend entirely on the degree of dependence on foreign oil. From the prospect of international oil supply and demand in the coming period of time, China’s oil security is basically flawless. Moreover, although China is the world’s second-largest consumer of oil, it is also the world’s fourth largest crude oil producer. The real gap is not the largest, and the security issue has not reached a point of jeopardy.

Some experts believe that oil security is related to two issues: First, can we buy oil, and second, can we afford oil?

At present, the world's oil market has a balance between supply and demand. In the coming decades, oil will be in a relatively safe period. The reasons are as follows: First, the world's remaining recoverable reserves of oil are still rising slowly; Second, OPEC-based oil producing countries are generally in restricted production in the past 20 years; Third, the future energy varieties tend to be diversified. The proportion of primary energy sources will continue to decline. Looking back at the past 100 years of history of human oil use, except for the two world wars, oil supply has never been interrupted, and the international oil market has never been oil-free.

In the era of economic globalization, oil consuming countries and producing countries are the interests of the community. Consumer countries need supply security, and producing countries need demand security. The dependence of oil-exporting countries on oil is even greater than that of importing countries. As a rising consumer power, China has become a strategic buyer in the international market. The Middle East, Russia, Central Asia, Africa, and South America all hope that China will become a stable export market. Our country must seize the favorable opportunity to change the single situation mainly imported from the Middle East and realize the diversification of oil supply. This is the key to safeguarding energy security.

In the open global market, the world is not short of oil. For China, the biggest problem is what kind of cost to obtain these external oils. This depends on China's ability to control global oil and gas resources, its right to speak in the world's oil pricing mechanism, and its market influence in the international trading system.

Judging from the oil supply situation in countries around the world, countries rich in oil resources do not necessarily guarantee security. Consumers that lack resources are not necessarily dangerous. How much resources are not sufficient conditions for oil security. Iraq has many oil and gas reserves and large production volumes, but it is under the control of people. There is no safety at all. Libya’s oil resources are rich, but it faces the situation of being divided; oil-rich foreign countries in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States and other developed countries are more dependent on foreign countries, but these The country’s capital has extensively penetrated into the world's major resource-producing regions and oil companies, securing its own security by obtaining share of oil. This is exactly the weak link that China urgently needs to strengthen.