Although the Baltic Dry Index has fallen, it has not stopped the iron ore price. This pricing blame that clearly violates the "supply and demand principle" is becoming a reality under the strong stimulus of "China's demand theory", and foreign mines are also planning to expand production. The Chinese steel industry, which has been “frustrated†for many years in the iron ore pricing system, is trying to increase its voice by mastering overseas mining resources and launching the China Index. Phenomenon: Iron ore sudden "unilateral rise" The author was informed that mainly due to the sluggish demand for large sea-going vessels transported by iron ore, the Baltic Dry Index has fallen more than 20% this year. This undoubtedly means that the global iron ore market as a whole is in a downturn. However, it is worth noting that domestic iron ore prices have risen "contrarian" in such an environment. At the beginning of this month, iron ore on the market was still in a downtrend channel and prices have fallen back to $170 per tonne. At that time, the industry speculated that iron ore may continue to fall to around $165 per ton. Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel, even issued a judgment: "The pattern of global iron ore shortage is gradually coming to an end, and iron ore prices may plummet in the future." However, iron ore has staged a "unilateral rise" in this case. Play code. According to the latest data from the United Metals Network, after several weeks of price increases, the current market price is at a high level. On the 29th, the mainstream price of the 63.5-print outer disk is around 182-184 US dollars per dry ton. Data show that iron ore prices and BDI index are basically in the same trend of "same rise and fall." In the period of the surge in iron ore imports in the first half of 2008, not only did the iron ore import price push to a record high of $200/ton, but the BDI index also broke through the high of 11,000 points. Li Xuerong, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, believes that domestic steel prices and mineral prices have been pushing each other up. The rise of iron ore against the trend may increase the future price increase of the mine price. If the iron ore price continues to rise, it will push the price of steel products to rise. The steel industry has a high degree of correlation with other industries, and its products are widely used, which has a great impact on the national economy. Quest: Foreign institutions still sing more demand for Chinese ore . The Baltic Dry Index, which is known as the “barometerâ€, has continuously released the “iron ore market downturn†signal, which is a huge contrast with the domestic price of the mine. In contrast to the Baltic Dry Index, the confidence of foreign mines in China’s demand seems to have never stopped, and plans to expand production. BHP Billiton announced that it will invest $7.4 billion in the development of the Western Australian iron ore project and the expansion of the port. The goal of BHP Billiton is that the annual average increase in iron ore production will be 10%. Rio Tinto plans to increase its iron ore production capacity in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, from the current 230 million tons to 333 million tons in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 9%. Rio Tinto also plans to develop the Simandou project to produce 95 million tons of iron ore annually by 2016. Vale announced a total investment of US$24 billion in 2011, most of which was used for iron ore production. FMG plans to reach 355 million tons of iron ore capacity by 2017, with an average annual production capacity growth rate of 24%. In addition, a large deep-water port was built in Anketell, Pilbara. It can be seen that foreign miners are still very optimistic about the needs of their big customers in China, and are actively arranging their future expansion plans, investment, mergers and acquisitions, building ports, repairing railways, mining and increasing production. Despite the expansion plans of the miners, the expansion of production capacity is not well controlled and may be postponed, but their overall capacity growth is still a bit "warm". Commodity analyst WoodMackenzie reported on July 20 that it is expected that China's construction spending will slow down after 2020, and iron ore demand will not fall sharply until 2015. The report said that strong demand growth last year has stimulated domestic iron ore production, but due to high domestic costs and low quality local iron ore resources, China will still need to import 1 billion tons of iron ore. Therefore, WoodMackenzie expects that the spot price of iron ore will remain above $150 per ton by 2015. He Peide, the global planner and general manager of UBS's raw materials, is particularly optimistic about the prospects of iron ore in the next few years. He said that in addition to China's consumption, the price of iron ore has risen, and there are many pushers behind it, plus India's demand. It will grow substantially and the price of iron ore will double again in the next few years. Countermeasure 1: The "China Index" grabs the right to speak . Li Xinchuang, deputy secretary-general of the Steel Association, said recently that the association has developed a formula for the iron ore index and expects to launch the index soon. Li Xinchuang said that the index will be compiled on the basis of import prices and domestic production. The iron ore pricing of most iron ore producers and steel mills has always relied on the index published by Platts. Xinhua News Agency and United Steel Network have also launched relevant indexes, but they have not been adopted by domestic and foreign companies. In fact, there are currently three more common iron ore pricing indices in the world, which are price indices issued by Platts, Metal Bulletin and Steel Index. At present, the most widely used spot iron ore market in China is the Platts resource price index, which is also used by the iron ore giants. Li Xinchuang said that although the Platts resource price index is widely used, the index does not truly reflect the market supply and demand situation. He said: "China needs to compile its own price index in order to protect its rights." He added: "The reason why the Big Three chose the Platts Index is because the index can best protect their interests." Countermeasure 2: Mastering overseas Resource and ore self-sufficiency data show that China's imports of iron ore from Brazil, Australia and India accounted for 62.3% of all demand in 2010, and China's steel production still relies heavily on imported iron ore. In order to reduce the proportion of imported iron ore in all demand below 50%, it is important to increase the control of overseas resources. Recently, Liu Han, chairman of the Board of Directors of Sichuan-based Hanlong Group, confirmed to the outside world that its subsidiary Hanlong Mining has made a wholly-off offer to Australian listed company, iron ore exploration and development company Sundance Resources ("SDL"). The acquisition, the total amount of the acquisition is about 1.44 billion Australian dollars. SDL has an absolute controlling stake in the Mubara Iron Ore Project in Cameroon, which is the third largest undeveloped iron ore mine in the world. Once the successful acquisition of Sichuan Hanlong will help increase the Chinese steel enterprises in the world iron ore trade. The right to speak. According to Baifang, the external propaganda office of WISCO, the source of imported iron ore in China has diversified. The large domestic iron and steel enterprises such as Wuhan Iron and Steel have formed “China prices†with small iron ore suppliers in countries such as Venezuela and Brazil. Iran imports a large amount of iron ore. At present, the actions of Chinese mining enterprises in overseas markets are very obvious. Private enterprises, including private enterprises, are actively implementing the strategy of going global. However, due to resource acquisitions, the progress of overseas markets is not obvious. It has changed from the previous full holding to partial holding, and this strategic shift will effectively increase the success rate of M&A. In the development of iron ore resources, the construction of infrastructure, such as supporting railways, ports and other mining areas, will bring new markets to Chinese companies. Expert opinion: China's index still has two major shortcomings. The analyst told the author that the relevant domestic departments are planning to establish a Chinese iron ore price index, or that China will launch an iron ore price index led by the steel industry. From the resolute opposition of the past, to the active launch today, of course, is not a small improvement. However, this upcoming "China Iron Ore Price Index" has two obvious shortcomings. The first is to launch later. Based on the keen judgment of the market development trend, some institutions in the world have taken the lead in launching the iron ore price index and have been put into practical use. Among them, the Platts index has been widely used, especially by the mining giants as the pricing basis, becoming its mainstream index standard. This means that the global iron ore pricing index is further concentrated, reflecting the fierce competition of international authorities to seize the iron ore pricing service market and its iron ore pricing service market. It was not until the international giants had put on a strategic layout that we began to realize the importance of the iron ore price index before we were ready to launch the price index. There is no doubt that we have lost the opportunity. Secondly, the formulator is not an independent interest agency. Therefore, we have formulated and launched the China Iron Ore Price Index. The ultimate goal is that its price index is widely recognized, especially by the world mining giants, and it is the main basis for determining the price of iron ore. It is by no means an index for the index, in order to confront other indexes. Looking at the above three international iron ore price indices, the founders are all third-party institutions, neither mining enterprises nor steel manufacturers. Our Iron and Steel Association once once represented the Chinese steel companies and the world mining giants in iron ore price negotiations. In fact, it is the leader of the athletes of the competition and has become a stakeholder. In this capacity, the China Iron Ore Price Index is clearly established. Not suitable, it is bound to encounter price determination of the other side, the world mining giants questioned. If our price index cannot be recognized by the price-mining world mining giant and becomes the main basis for determining the price, then what is necessary?
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