Since the Shanghai rebar futures bottomed out at 4,000 yuan/ton mark on May 23, the thread price has followed the overall rebound of the commodity market and maintained a small slow-moving market. The recent main contract RB1210 has stabilized at 4,100 yuan/ton. Due to the first interest rate cut by the central bank in more than three years in early June and the satisfactory results of the Greek parliamentary elections in the euro zone, market sentiment is gradually optimistic about the market outlook. On the one hand, with the gradual loosening of funds, house prices have maintained a low rebound for several months, and the expectation for the warming of the real estate market has gradually increased. On the other hand, the euro zone speculation has temporarily subsided due to the Greek election results, and crude oil is at the level of 80 US dollars. Get support. Therefore, in theory, the rebar price has a reason to continue the rebound, and from the actual situation of the current fundamentals, rebar still lacks the momentum to increase significantly. First of all, capacity expansion has been too fast this year, capacity utilization has been declining, and the problem of oversupply has intensified. According to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, the annual output of China's crude steel in 2011 was 680 million tons, the production capacity was 840 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was only 81.46%. In the first five months of 2012, China's crude steel production capacity increased by more than 80 million tons. More than 920 million tons. If measured according to the output of 290 million tons in the first five months of this year, the capacity utilization rate has actually dropped further to below 80%. As long as the capacity utilization rate does not go up, it means that there is still a lot of room for growth. Once the price rises significantly, it will inevitably lead to more production and the price will fall again. Moreover, due to the slowdown in economic growth, external demand is not strong, and the apparent consumption of steel is slower than the growth rate of production. Although with the gradual decline of economic growth and the reduction of inflationary pressures, “stable growth†has gradually become the focus of government work. In the later period, a series of major project investment construction is expected to accelerate, and monetary policy tends to be moderately loose, but the real estate regulation policy does not Under the sway, the investment in infrastructure investment on steel consumption is also difficult to make up for the decline in demand in the real estate market, and it is difficult for the overall consumption to rise sharply. Therefore, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to improve effectively. Secondly, the price of steel furnace charge is weak with the shock of steel prices, and the cost is not supported. From the perspective of iron ore, although the price of imported iron ore has rebounded slightly in the past few months, in the medium and long term, the probability of falling mine prices is still high. On the one hand, due to the new capacity of the three major foreign mines, there will be a large release in 2012-2013. In addition, more than 300 iron ore mining projects in more than 40 countries are under construction and planning. It is expected to produce more than 1.6 billion tons of ore production capacity. In 2013, it will increase production capacity by 380 million tons. With the loosening of the ore market, the source of China's imported mines has gradually diversified. The import volume of non-three major mines is increasing, and the monopoly of the ore market is declining, which makes the price inevitably form competition, and it is difficult to maintain high prices. At the same time, due to the weak domestic steel prices, major steel mills have reduced ore stocks. Therefore, the current domestic port iron ore is already at a high level, and the demand for ore prices has been lowered in the short term. From the perspective of another large upstream coke, in the past three months, the coke prices in most of the country have fallen sharply. Overcapacity is still an important factor in the weakening of coke prices, but it is also very important that compared with steel mills, coke enterprises are in a weak position in negotiations, due to the current low steel prices and poor profitability, so this year The price reduction of coke for steel mills has been sustained. Therefore, regardless of iron ore or coke, the latter will remain weak, and the price will not increase. From the overall market point of view, in the short term, after entering the plum rain season, it will enter the off-season, the steel mill will carry out extensive maintenance, supply and demand will all fall back, so the price fluctuation of rebar will not be affected too much. In general, due to the weak fundamentals, it is still difficult to change the current weak shock pattern in the later period of steel prices, and the rebound is difficult to sustain.
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Jiangmen Synno Lighting Co., Ltd. , https://www.synnoled.com