Iran reached new agreement

Because Iran signed a new six-month agreement with the six major countries to curb its nuclear program, President Obama urged Congress not to increase sanctions against Iran, suggesting that the country may export more crude oil in the future, and US crude oil fell by nearly 1%. However, the current geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as Libya, are still present and are expected to provide some support for oil prices. The crude oil market closed lower. NYMEX crude oil ** fell 0.92 US dollars to close at 91.80 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.99%.

Monday (January 13) Trend Description:

During the Asian session, U.S. crude oil continued to narrow within the range of US$92.20-92.50. At the beginning of the European session, U.S. crude oil fell slightly below US$92 and then oscillated between US$91.80-92.30. During the New York session, US crude oil extended its decline and went all the way down to the intraday low of $91.43/barrel, finally stabilizing above this position.

NYMEX crude oil ** hit a high of 92.88 US dollars / barrel for the day, the lowest test of 91.43 US dollars / barrel, down 0.92 US dollars to close at 91.80 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.99%.

Fundamental positive factors:

1. The Atlanta Fed ** Dennis Lockhart said on Monday that he is cautious about further reducing the scale of bond purchases, but he warned that the labor market has not fully recovered and there are signs of deflation in the economy.

2. According to data released by the US Treasury on Monday, the U.S. government recorded a budget surplus of 53.2 billion U.S. dollars in December, which was higher than the market forecast of 44 billion U.S. dollars.

3. The militants killed Libya’s Deputy Minister of Industry, Hassan al-Drowi, on Saturday (January 11) and the tension between government forces and rebel forces deteriorated.

Fundamental negative factors:

1. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Union said on Sunday that the agreement between Iran and the six major powers aims to pave the way for the resolution of Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions. The agreement will take effect on January 20.

Outlook outlook:

The world-renowned investment bank Goldman Sachs pointed out in its report on Monday that due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical risks of Libya and South and South Sudan in the near future, crude oil prices are positive in the short term, but the risks in the next three months are still neutral, while The expected rate of return is around 3%. In 2014, the average price of crude oil in the United States was expected to be US$90/barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil was US$100/barrel.

Bob Yawger, head of Mizuho Securities, said: "Today Iran has reached a nuclear agreement is undoubtedly a major event in the crude oil market. This six-month agreement will effectively help Iran's crude oil exports to re-affect the market. However, The current market is still in a state of oversupply, so Iran’s accession is a headache for other oil-producing countries.”

Yawger added, "I expect U.S. crude oil to test the $90 mark soon. Before that, traders will set an initial target at the eight-month low of $91.24/barrel. Even though U.S. crude oil has not been broken since April of last year, 90 US dollars, but things are unpredictable."