Coking still has space to fall in the short term

Since the Spring Festival, the major coke contract 1309 has fallen from RMB 2015/t to RMB 1456/t, and it has oscillated slightly within the price range of RMB 1450-1600. As of the 6th, the main coke 1309 contract closed at 1,432 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton from the previous Thursday, and the open interest volume rose slightly. The market was actively trading.

First of all, the conflict between supply and demand for coke remains unsolved. In the context of continuous losses in the steel industry, coke prices have been suppressed by steel mills, and coke companies are not willing to produce. The high output of crude steel continued, and the demand for coke was high after the Spring Festival. The demand for coke was relatively small, resulting in a decline in coke inventories in coking plants and steel mills. Currently, inventory levels are low. This week, the port exhibited a surge in stocks and prices continued to fall. As of June 3, all types of coal in Qinhuangdao fell by 5 yuan, the first decline in nearly 5 weeks. The Bohai Rim thermal coal index fell by a record low of $1 to $610. Affected by sluggish demand and heavy fog, Qinhuangdao stocks rose sharply by 15% to 6.57 million tons. The total inventories of the 4 ports in the north rose by 8% to 17.07 million tons. The 6 major coastal power plants have not changed much, and the inventory days have remained for 23 days. The coastal coal freight index, which reflects demand indicators, fell by 0.6% and fell for nine consecutive weeks.

Imported coal hits the domestic market. Following the year-on-year increase in net imports of coking coal in China by 27% to 52.3 million tons in 2012, the cumulative net import of coking coal in the first four months of 2013 increased by 40.5% year-on-year to 23.75 million tons, of which an increase of 73% came from Australia. With this growth rate, the net import volume in 2013 is expected to increase to 73 million tons, and the import dependency will increase to 12%.

At present, the supply and demand situation of the coke market is that the stock is at a relatively low level compared to the past three years, but the downstream demand side is still weak, so the key to the future trend of coke is whether the demand in the later period can improve. The enthusiasm of the domestic land market for the coke market's transmission and urbanization measures will determine the future trend of coke prices. However, in the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand of coke and the impact of low-priced imported coal will also suppress domestic coke prices, and the decline in kinetic energy will remain large. It is recommended to pay close attention to the support of 1,309,400 below the main coke. If it can effectively stand firm, coke may stop falling and rise.