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It is understood that as the weather gets warmer, the demand for large-diameter thick-walled seamless steel pipe steel will gradually start. However, due to the rapid release of production capacity and the rapid increase in steel inventories, the contradiction between oversupply in the domestic market is still outstanding, and the steel prices in the later market are facing downward pressure.
1. The economy is developing steadily and healthily, driving the growth of steel demand
In his government work report at the First Session of the 12th National People's Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that in 2013 China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The national economy will continue to develop healthily and the growth target is set at around 7.5%. The previous year was slightly lower, but it is still growing rapidly. From the contents of the 2013 National Economic and Social Development Plan reviewed by the National Development and Reform Commission for consideration at the First Session of the 12th National People's Congress, this year's consumption has played a more important role in boosting economic growth. The expected growth target of total retail sales of social consumer goods is 14.5%, higher than last year's 0.5. The investment will continue to play a key role in economic growth. The annual fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 18%, slightly lower than the actual growth of 19% in the previous year. It is still growing rapidly; urbanization is the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand. The urbanization rate target for this year is 53.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous year. The urban affordable housing has basically completed 4.7 million sets and newly started 6.3 million sets. In addition to the affordable housing projects and urban infrastructure construction, the “three rural issuesâ€, Annual fixed asset investment in major infrastructure such as transportation and energy, energy conservation and emission reduction, eco-environmental protection, and underdeveloped regions will continue to grow. This year, the newly-built railway has a production mileage of more than 5,200 kilometers, 80,000 kilometers of new roads, 200,000 kilometers of newly built rural roads, 100 berths of more than 10,000 tons of coastal ports, and about 10 transport airports. The healthy development of the national economy has driven demand for steel to maintain growth.
2. Crude steel output hit a record high, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has intensified
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in January-February, the cumulative production of pig iron, crude steel and large-diameter thick-walled seamless steel pipes (including duplicate materials) was 115.79 million tons, 125.45 million tons and 158.27 million tons, respectively, up 7.8% year-on-year. 10.6% and 14.2%, respectively, increased by 5.0, 7.3 and 3.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; the national average daily crude steel volume reached 2,216,300 tons, the highest level in the same period of history; according to customs statistics, in January and February, China's cumulative export of steel products was 9.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%; the cumulative import of steel products was 2 million tons, down 6.3% year-on-year. Imported steel billet was 100,000 tons, up 47.7% year-on-year; the total billet was equivalent to a net export of 7.52 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 2.29 million tons over the previous year. According to the above data, the domestic average daily crude steel supply reached 2 million tons in January-February, an increase of 200,000 tons over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 10.8%. In the case of limited market demand growth, steel production has increased substantially, which has further aggravated the contradiction between oversupply in the domestic steel market.
3, steel stocks increased rapidly, steel prices fell downward pressure
Since the beginning of this year, the social inventory of large-diameter thick-walled seamless steel pipes has shown a rapid recovery. By the beginning of March, the social stocks of the 26 major steel markets and five types of steel (middle plate, cold rolled sheet, hot rolled sheet, wire and rebar) increased by 8.1 million tons from the end of the previous year, an increase of 68.15%; Compared with the same period of the year, the inventory increased by 1.16 million tons, an increase of 6.15%, which was the first year since September last year. Steel stocks rebounded rapidly, which had a greater impact on the later market, and the downward pressure on steel prices rose.
The main issues that need to be addressed in the later market:
First, the level of steel production is high, and the market is still in a situation of oversupply. In the first two months of this year, the country's cumulative production of crude steel was 125.45 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 2,216,300 tons, the highest level in history. Due to the high level of steel production, the situation of oversupply in the market has further intensified, and steel companies should increase their control over production.
Second, the increase in social inventories has an impact on the later market. At the beginning of March, the social stocks of five steel products in major cities nationwide increased by 8.1 million tons from the end of the previous year, of which rebar and wire stocks increased by 6.35 million tons, accounting for 78.5% of the total increase, up 98.8% from the end of the previous year. The rapid growth of long-term social stocks will have an impact on the later market.
Third, the price of production factors has risen, and the cost pressure of large-diameter thick-walled seamless steel pipe enterprises has increased. Since February 20 this year, the state has adjusted the railway freight rate by an average of 0.015 yuan per ton. Since February 25, the state has raised the price of refined oil. Gasoline and diesel oil have risen by 300 yuan/ton and 290 yuan respectively. /Ton. In the future, with the increase in energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection, the prices of resources and energy will rise, which will push up the cost of steel.
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