From the downstream of the machine tool industry, the automobile, machinery manufacturing, military and other industries are the main downstream industries of the machine tool industry, among which the automobile is the most important industry, accounting for about 45% of the downstream of the machine tool industry. However, the recovery of the downstream industry does not seem to spread to the machine tool industry. This year, the machine tool industry still has negative profit growth. We believe that this situation will change in the fourth quarter.
The long-term development of the global machine tool industry. From 2005 to 2008, the global machine tool industry grew at a rate of more than 10%, much higher than the growth rate of the global economy during the same period. In 2008, the global machine tool industry's total output value exceeded 80 billion US dollars. From the perspective of production, Japan, Germany, China, and Italy are the major producers of the machine tool industry: about 65% of the world. From the point of view of consumption, China, Germany, Japan, the United States, Italy, etc., in 2008, China's machine tool consumption reached 19.44 billion US dollars, maintaining the position of the world's first machine tool consumer country for seven consecutive years.
China's machine tool industry grew at an average annual rate of 26% from 2003 to 2008, much higher than the GDP growth rate during the same period, showing a huge room for growth in China's machine tool industry. From the perspective of the industry life cycle, China's machine tool industry is currently in the growth stage, showing that the industry is growing at a faster rate and its profitability is stabilizing. The domestic market share of domestic machine tools increased from less than 40% in 2000 to 61% in 2008. However, at present, most of China's high-end CNC machine tools rely on imports have not yet broken. China's domestic CNC machine tools are mostly simple and economical CNC machine tools with low added value. Imported high-end CNC machine tools with high added value, foreign companies are about Occupy 85% of the market share of high-end machine tools in China.
In the fourth quarter, the growth was expected from January to August. Under the stimulation of domestic demand policy, the machine tool industry bottomed out. The monthly production data has narrowed from the lowest point of -34% to -9%, showing a bottoming out trend. CNC machine tools performed better than ordinary machine tools. In August, the output growth rate of CNC machine tools was -5%, while all machine tools were -9%. As China's machine tool exports account for a relatively small proportion, the bottoming out of the machine tool industry is mainly affected by the domestic demand policy.
However, from the perspective of profit indicators, the total profit of the machine tool industry in January-August was still negative year-on-year. Even the negative growth of this index in August increased, which is in sharp contrast with the production indicators, indicating that the basis for the recovery of the machine tool industry is not stable.
From the main downstream of the machine tool industry, the automotive industry is the main downstream industry of machine tools. In the first three quarters, driven by relevant policies, China's auto industry experienced a blowout market, especially in August, when auto production reached a record high. From the perspective of the machine tool industry and the automobile industry, there was a high agreement between January 2007 and January 2009, but this coincidence relationship deviated after February 2009. We believe this is due to the lag in capacity expansion in the automotive industry, and this divergence cannot be maintained for a long time. In the fourth quarter, as the production of automobiles increases, this divergence will gradually shrink. Due to the low production base of the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter of 2008, the machine tool industry is expected to achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter.
From the perspective of the main raw material--steel price trend, China's steel production capacity is currently oversupplied, and the pressure on steel prices in the fourth quarter is relatively small. Therefore, the machine tool industry has a large profit margin in the fourth quarter, which will benefit the profitability of machine tool enterprises. situation.
From the perspective of secondary market performance, the performance of the machine tool industry is in line with the CSI 300 (3347.320, -21.96, -0.65%) index. It surpassed the CSI 300 index before June and lags behind the CSI 300 after June. index. We have three paths for stock selection.
First, in line with the trend. At present, China's machine tool industry is in the period of increasing numerical control rate, and numerical control will be the development trend of China's machine tool industry. Therefore, listed companies with higher numerical control rate have good development prospects. From the perspective of the numerical control degree of listed companies in China's machine tool industry, Huadong CNC (30.76, 0.68, 2.26%) has the highest numerical control rate, while Shenyang Machine Tool (8.55, 0.02, 0.23%) has the lowest numerical control rate.
Second, focus on profitability. China's machine tool industry is fiercely competitive. Many companies adopt price reduction methods to improve their competitiveness, which poses a threat to the profitability of enterprises. Therefore, we should choose those listed companies that have strong price transfer ability and relatively stable profits.
From the perspective of the profitability of listed companies, companies such as Huadong CNC, Kunming Machine Tool and Qinchuan Development have higher profitability, while companies such as Nantong Technology and Shenyang Machine Tool have weaker profitability.
From the point of view of listed companies in the machine tool industry, the downstream industries are different due to different products, and the downstream industry differences will affect the profitability of listed companies. In the fourth quarter, we continue to be optimistic about the growth of railways, automobiles, construction machinery and other industries, which will benefit from the downstream machine tool industry.
Third, technical strength + policy benefits. In the next few years, the industrial upgrading of the machine tool industry will show an accelerating trend, which puts high demands on the product innovation of enterprises. Those enterprises with strong R&D strength and technical strength will benefit significantly. In recent years, the "Major Special Planning for Machine Tool Industry" and "Major Special Projects for High-end CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipment" will be an important policy affecting the development of the machine tool industry, which will have an important impact on the development of the machine tool industry. Therefore, we are optimistic about those policy income companies.
The long-term development of the global machine tool industry. From 2005 to 2008, the global machine tool industry grew at a rate of more than 10%, much higher than the growth rate of the global economy during the same period. In 2008, the global machine tool industry's total output value exceeded 80 billion US dollars. From the perspective of production, Japan, Germany, China, and Italy are the major producers of the machine tool industry: about 65% of the world. From the point of view of consumption, China, Germany, Japan, the United States, Italy, etc., in 2008, China's machine tool consumption reached 19.44 billion US dollars, maintaining the position of the world's first machine tool consumer country for seven consecutive years.
China's machine tool industry grew at an average annual rate of 26% from 2003 to 2008, much higher than the GDP growth rate during the same period, showing a huge room for growth in China's machine tool industry. From the perspective of the industry life cycle, China's machine tool industry is currently in the growth stage, showing that the industry is growing at a faster rate and its profitability is stabilizing. The domestic market share of domestic machine tools increased from less than 40% in 2000 to 61% in 2008. However, at present, most of China's high-end CNC machine tools rely on imports have not yet broken. China's domestic CNC machine tools are mostly simple and economical CNC machine tools with low added value. Imported high-end CNC machine tools with high added value, foreign companies are about Occupy 85% of the market share of high-end machine tools in China.
In the fourth quarter, the growth was expected from January to August. Under the stimulation of domestic demand policy, the machine tool industry bottomed out. The monthly production data has narrowed from the lowest point of -34% to -9%, showing a bottoming out trend. CNC machine tools performed better than ordinary machine tools. In August, the output growth rate of CNC machine tools was -5%, while all machine tools were -9%. As China's machine tool exports account for a relatively small proportion, the bottoming out of the machine tool industry is mainly affected by the domestic demand policy.
However, from the perspective of profit indicators, the total profit of the machine tool industry in January-August was still negative year-on-year. Even the negative growth of this index in August increased, which is in sharp contrast with the production indicators, indicating that the basis for the recovery of the machine tool industry is not stable.
From the main downstream of the machine tool industry, the automotive industry is the main downstream industry of machine tools. In the first three quarters, driven by relevant policies, China's auto industry experienced a blowout market, especially in August, when auto production reached a record high. From the perspective of the machine tool industry and the automobile industry, there was a high agreement between January 2007 and January 2009, but this coincidence relationship deviated after February 2009. We believe this is due to the lag in capacity expansion in the automotive industry, and this divergence cannot be maintained for a long time. In the fourth quarter, as the production of automobiles increases, this divergence will gradually shrink. Due to the low production base of the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter of 2008, the machine tool industry is expected to achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter.
From the perspective of the main raw material--steel price trend, China's steel production capacity is currently oversupplied, and the pressure on steel prices in the fourth quarter is relatively small. Therefore, the machine tool industry has a large profit margin in the fourth quarter, which will benefit the profitability of machine tool enterprises. situation.
From the perspective of secondary market performance, the performance of the machine tool industry is in line with the CSI 300 (3347.320, -21.96, -0.65%) index. It surpassed the CSI 300 index before June and lags behind the CSI 300 after June. index. We have three paths for stock selection.
First, in line with the trend. At present, China's machine tool industry is in the period of increasing numerical control rate, and numerical control will be the development trend of China's machine tool industry. Therefore, listed companies with higher numerical control rate have good development prospects. From the perspective of the numerical control degree of listed companies in China's machine tool industry, Huadong CNC (30.76, 0.68, 2.26%) has the highest numerical control rate, while Shenyang Machine Tool (8.55, 0.02, 0.23%) has the lowest numerical control rate.
Second, focus on profitability. China's machine tool industry is fiercely competitive. Many companies adopt price reduction methods to improve their competitiveness, which poses a threat to the profitability of enterprises. Therefore, we should choose those listed companies that have strong price transfer ability and relatively stable profits.
From the perspective of the profitability of listed companies, companies such as Huadong CNC, Kunming Machine Tool and Qinchuan Development have higher profitability, while companies such as Nantong Technology and Shenyang Machine Tool have weaker profitability.
From the point of view of listed companies in the machine tool industry, the downstream industries are different due to different products, and the downstream industry differences will affect the profitability of listed companies. In the fourth quarter, we continue to be optimistic about the growth of railways, automobiles, construction machinery and other industries, which will benefit from the downstream machine tool industry.
Third, technical strength + policy benefits. In the next few years, the industrial upgrading of the machine tool industry will show an accelerating trend, which puts high demands on the product innovation of enterprises. Those enterprises with strong R&D strength and technical strength will benefit significantly. In recent years, the "Major Special Planning for Machine Tool Industry" and "Major Special Projects for High-end CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipment" will be an important policy affecting the development of the machine tool industry, which will have an important impact on the development of the machine tool industry. Therefore, we are optimistic about those policy income companies.
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