1. Analysis of price trend 1.1 Successful realization of “V†type reversal Since 2000, with the increase in the demand for platinum in the automotive, jewelry, and industrial sectors, the price of platinum has continued to rise. In 2005, the price of platinum rose to 1,000 US dollars per ounce. Compared with 2000, it has more than doubled. From 2006 to 2007, the supply shortage of platinum caused platinum prices to enter a fast-rising channel. In early 2008, due to the increase of power crisis in South Africa, which affected the supply of platinum, the price of platinum rose to 2,200 US dollars per ounce. In the second half of 2008, when the financial crisis broke out, the price of platinum was severely weighed down and plummeted to below $800/oz. At the beginning of 2009, the price of platinum rebounded, investment demand continued to increase, and platinum prices rose unilaterally. At the end of the year, it was close to 1,500 US dollars per ounce. From 2009 to 2010, platinum prices successfully achieved a "V" reversal.
1.2 Continuity does not change the upward trend of platinum prices In 2010, platinum prices took a rapid upward trend in 2009. The biggest consumption highlights of platinum are in autos, and China's emerging markets such as emerging markets have a new record of auto production. Western developed countries’ auto market has begun to recover, driving demand for platinum. The investment demand has reduced the spot supply, which is one of the main drivers of the rise in platinum prices. Contrary to the unilateral upward trend in 2009, the platinum price was repeatedly affected by the European debt crisis and profit-taking. However, South Africa’s supply remained tight. The good fundamentals of platinum kept it from declining and the shock did not change. trend. The impact of physical demand on platinum prices is still there, investment demand has continued to emerge, can be described as "a wave of unequal, one after another wave", the platinum price rose to 1,800 US dollars / ounce or more.
In 2010, as the global economy continued to recover, consumer confidence increased, and global vehicle production continued to increase. Not only China, India, Brazil, and other countries’ monthly production of automobiles set a record in history, but Europe and the United States suffered heavy losses in the country’s car production during the financial crisis. It also bottomed out, and the boom in the automotive market requires a lot of platinum as a catalyst. At the beginning of 2010, New York, the United States introduced platinum-palladium-to-ETF, and the platinum-metals investment interest is unprecedentedly high. On January 8, 2010, the U.S. platinum-palladium ETF triggered a large amount of investment demand after its listing. The platinum price quickly broke through the important threshold of US$1600/ounce and created a new rebound. The excessive rise has brought worries to the market and platinum prices have been under pressure. In particular, the Eurozone countries, such as Greece, have successively incurred a debt crisis. The euro has been sold. The dollar has risen. It has risen from 77 to 81 in just one month, and platinum prices have fallen. The minimum price has reached below 1,500 US dollars per ounce. At the end of February, the dollar’s ​​upward trend was suspended and oscillated around 81. The news that automobile sales increased in the United States and other countries caused platinum prices to rise again and exceeded US$1600/ounce by mid-March. At the EU spring summit held in Brussels from March 25th to 26th, the heads of the 16 countries in the euro zone passed the EU's mechanism to rescue Greece. Investor confidence increased, the dollar index fell in a row. Platinum once again became a target of investment, rising continuously. It quickly broke through the $1,700/oz mark in early April. From April to early May, platinum traded at a high of $1,700.
Since the second half of May, the debt crisis in Europe has become increasingly severe, which has hit investor confidence and the dollar index has continued to rise, breaking 88. The price of platinum dropped to less than 1,500 US dollars per ounce, and a three-month adjustment began. The unilateral rise in platinum was broken. From June to August, the platinum price was adjusted between 1,500 and 1600 US dollars per ounce, returning to "rationality." At the end of August, due to the demand of manufacturing industry and the influence of miners in South Africa, the price of platinum rose linearly from the support level of 1,500 US dollars per ounce. In early October, it exceeded 1,700 US dollars per ounce.
From the end of October to the beginning of November, the U.S. dollar fell again, to a minimum of 76, and investors returned to the precious metals. In early November, the Fed announced the launch of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, which is to purchase 600 billion U.S. Treasury bonds within eight months, triggering an increase in commodity prices. Crude oil prices rose to nearly US$90/barrel, gold prices broke through US$1400/oz, and platinum was affected by this impact again. On November 9th, it stood at US$1800/oz, with the highest trading price of US$1805.5/oz, which has rebounded since the end of 2008. new highs.
However, in November, the price of platinum rose too quickly, the lowest close to 1,620 US dollars / ounce, is the lowest point since September, weaker than other precious metals performance. In December, South Africa’s national electricity may be in short supply due to continued adverse weather. The country’s precious metals mining industry faces challenges, among which platinum mining bears the brunt. The price of platinum was greatly affected by this, and soon it broke through the $1,700 and moved closer to $1800. In early 2011, it once again successfully stood at the threshold of $1800/oz.
1.3 Domestic platinum prices rose In January 2010, domestic platinum prices rose all the way by the impact of external disk and pre-holiday factors, reaching a maximum of 372 yuan/g on January 19th. During the Spring Festival, platinum prices remained low, dropping to 338 yuan/g. On March 1, the price of platinum rose sharply, and the price of 360 yuan/g and 380 yuan/g mark broke through easily. On April 26, the platinum-weighted price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 397.22 yuan per gram, a record high since the rebound. After being affected by the fall in international platinum prices, domestic platinum prices have been declining in May, and the lowest was 346.49 yuan/g on May 21st. At the end of May, the platinum price slowly recovered to 350 yuan/g or more. On June 21, the platinum price of Shangjin rose to 363.82 yuan/g. However, the basis for pushing up platinum prices was not solid, so platinum prices began to decline again in late June, from July 6 to the lowest of 340.44 yuan/g, and then slowly risen.
From late May to August, platinum prices oscillated mainly at 340-360 yuan/g. Starting in August, the platinum market began to recover from the downturn. Affected by higher international platinum prices and good domestic demand, domestic platinum prices have risen. At the end of September, the price of platinum rose to nearly 370 yuan/g. After the national holiday, the price of platinum rose again. On October 14, the platinum-weighted price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose to 381.28 yuan/g. In late October, the price of platinum slightly adjusted downwards, and the main trading range was 370-380 yuan/g. In early November, driven by the rise in gold prices, platinum prices rose sharply again, reaching 393.6 yuan/g on November 9, near the record of 397.22 yuan/g set in late April. As the U.S. dollar rose, the price of platinum fell in late November, which was the lowest at RMB 365/g. In the early months of the month, driven by the external market, platinum prices returned to the 380 yuan/g mark, and the weighted price reached 388.87 yuan/g at the end of December.
In 2009, Pt99.95 accumulated turnover of 56664 kilograms (two-way), and the transaction value was 15,528,427,300 yuan. In 2010, cumulative turnover of Pt99.95 reached 54,688 kg (bidirectional), a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; turnover was 1984,192.96 million yuan, an increase of 27.8% year-on-year. Monthly average trading volume of platinum in 2010 was 4558 kg, of which there were 4 months of trading volume of more than 5 tons, the highest volume of transactions in March, a total turnover of 6702 kg.
2. Economic recovery, international commodity prices will continue to rise. The latest data from the United States show that in 2010, the US economy grew by 2.9%, the fastest growth rate in five years, and it was the first time since the end of 2007 that the US economy had entered annual recession. The initial growth rate of US GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 reached 3.2%, which was the sixth consecutive quarterly increase. In the fourth quarter, personal consumer spending in the United States increased by 4.4%, which was a 2% increase over the third quarter. According to another report, consumer spending in the United States, which showed personal consumption expenditure, rose by 3% in December 2010, providing an important impetus for the US economic recovery. The market is very optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery in the United States. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, economists’ expected median value of US economic growth in 2011 increased to 3.2%, reaching the highest level in seven years.
In 2010, the global economy maintained its momentum of recovery. GDP growth rate was around 4.6%. Emerging economies are still the main driving force for global economic growth. The world’s advanced economies continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policies, and some countries with strong growth momentum have increased inflationary pressure. The global economy continues to recover, and the United States’ second round of quantitative easing monetary and other policies has increased inflation expectations. In 2010, the international commodity market rose sharply in the shock: crude oil once broke through 92 US dollars/barrel; Lunbron reached a record high of US$9392/ton, and Lon Aluminium also rose above US$2,450/ton; agricultural products rebounded very quickly. The CRB index representing the international commodity index reached a record high, reaching 614.79 points, surpassing the high point set in July 2008. The market almost unanimously believes that the commodity market will enter a new bull market and will continue in 2011.
1.2 Continuity does not change the upward trend of platinum prices In 2010, platinum prices took a rapid upward trend in 2009. The biggest consumption highlights of platinum are in autos, and China's emerging markets such as emerging markets have a new record of auto production. Western developed countries’ auto market has begun to recover, driving demand for platinum. The investment demand has reduced the spot supply, which is one of the main drivers of the rise in platinum prices. Contrary to the unilateral upward trend in 2009, the platinum price was repeatedly affected by the European debt crisis and profit-taking. However, South Africa’s supply remained tight. The good fundamentals of platinum kept it from declining and the shock did not change. trend. The impact of physical demand on platinum prices is still there, investment demand has continued to emerge, can be described as "a wave of unequal, one after another wave", the platinum price rose to 1,800 US dollars / ounce or more.
In 2010, as the global economy continued to recover, consumer confidence increased, and global vehicle production continued to increase. Not only China, India, Brazil, and other countries’ monthly production of automobiles set a record in history, but Europe and the United States suffered heavy losses in the country’s car production during the financial crisis. It also bottomed out, and the boom in the automotive market requires a lot of platinum as a catalyst. At the beginning of 2010, New York, the United States introduced platinum-palladium-to-ETF, and the platinum-metals investment interest is unprecedentedly high. On January 8, 2010, the U.S. platinum-palladium ETF triggered a large amount of investment demand after its listing. The platinum price quickly broke through the important threshold of US$1600/ounce and created a new rebound. The excessive rise has brought worries to the market and platinum prices have been under pressure. In particular, the Eurozone countries, such as Greece, have successively incurred a debt crisis. The euro has been sold. The dollar has risen. It has risen from 77 to 81 in just one month, and platinum prices have fallen. The minimum price has reached below 1,500 US dollars per ounce. At the end of February, the dollar’s ​​upward trend was suspended and oscillated around 81. The news that automobile sales increased in the United States and other countries caused platinum prices to rise again and exceeded US$1600/ounce by mid-March. At the EU spring summit held in Brussels from March 25th to 26th, the heads of the 16 countries in the euro zone passed the EU's mechanism to rescue Greece. Investor confidence increased, the dollar index fell in a row. Platinum once again became a target of investment, rising continuously. It quickly broke through the $1,700/oz mark in early April. From April to early May, platinum traded at a high of $1,700.
Since the second half of May, the debt crisis in Europe has become increasingly severe, which has hit investor confidence and the dollar index has continued to rise, breaking 88. The price of platinum dropped to less than 1,500 US dollars per ounce, and a three-month adjustment began. The unilateral rise in platinum was broken. From June to August, the platinum price was adjusted between 1,500 and 1600 US dollars per ounce, returning to "rationality." At the end of August, due to the demand of manufacturing industry and the influence of miners in South Africa, the price of platinum rose linearly from the support level of 1,500 US dollars per ounce. In early October, it exceeded 1,700 US dollars per ounce.
From the end of October to the beginning of November, the U.S. dollar fell again, to a minimum of 76, and investors returned to the precious metals. In early November, the Fed announced the launch of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, which is to purchase 600 billion U.S. Treasury bonds within eight months, triggering an increase in commodity prices. Crude oil prices rose to nearly US$90/barrel, gold prices broke through US$1400/oz, and platinum was affected by this impact again. On November 9th, it stood at US$1800/oz, with the highest trading price of US$1805.5/oz, which has rebounded since the end of 2008. new highs.
However, in November, the price of platinum rose too quickly, the lowest close to 1,620 US dollars / ounce, is the lowest point since September, weaker than other precious metals performance. In December, South Africa’s national electricity may be in short supply due to continued adverse weather. The country’s precious metals mining industry faces challenges, among which platinum mining bears the brunt. The price of platinum was greatly affected by this, and soon it broke through the $1,700 and moved closer to $1800. In early 2011, it once again successfully stood at the threshold of $1800/oz.
1.3 Domestic platinum prices rose In January 2010, domestic platinum prices rose all the way by the impact of external disk and pre-holiday factors, reaching a maximum of 372 yuan/g on January 19th. During the Spring Festival, platinum prices remained low, dropping to 338 yuan/g. On March 1, the price of platinum rose sharply, and the price of 360 yuan/g and 380 yuan/g mark broke through easily. On April 26, the platinum-weighted price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 397.22 yuan per gram, a record high since the rebound. After being affected by the fall in international platinum prices, domestic platinum prices have been declining in May, and the lowest was 346.49 yuan/g on May 21st. At the end of May, the platinum price slowly recovered to 350 yuan/g or more. On June 21, the platinum price of Shangjin rose to 363.82 yuan/g. However, the basis for pushing up platinum prices was not solid, so platinum prices began to decline again in late June, from July 6 to the lowest of 340.44 yuan/g, and then slowly risen.
From late May to August, platinum prices oscillated mainly at 340-360 yuan/g. Starting in August, the platinum market began to recover from the downturn. Affected by higher international platinum prices and good domestic demand, domestic platinum prices have risen. At the end of September, the price of platinum rose to nearly 370 yuan/g. After the national holiday, the price of platinum rose again. On October 14, the platinum-weighted price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose to 381.28 yuan/g. In late October, the price of platinum slightly adjusted downwards, and the main trading range was 370-380 yuan/g. In early November, driven by the rise in gold prices, platinum prices rose sharply again, reaching 393.6 yuan/g on November 9, near the record of 397.22 yuan/g set in late April. As the U.S. dollar rose, the price of platinum fell in late November, which was the lowest at RMB 365/g. In the early months of the month, driven by the external market, platinum prices returned to the 380 yuan/g mark, and the weighted price reached 388.87 yuan/g at the end of December.
In 2009, Pt99.95 accumulated turnover of 56664 kilograms (two-way), and the transaction value was 15,528,427,300 yuan. In 2010, cumulative turnover of Pt99.95 reached 54,688 kg (bidirectional), a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; turnover was 1984,192.96 million yuan, an increase of 27.8% year-on-year. Monthly average trading volume of platinum in 2010 was 4558 kg, of which there were 4 months of trading volume of more than 5 tons, the highest volume of transactions in March, a total turnover of 6702 kg.
2. Economic recovery, international commodity prices will continue to rise. The latest data from the United States show that in 2010, the US economy grew by 2.9%, the fastest growth rate in five years, and it was the first time since the end of 2007 that the US economy had entered annual recession. The initial growth rate of US GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 reached 3.2%, which was the sixth consecutive quarterly increase. In the fourth quarter, personal consumer spending in the United States increased by 4.4%, which was a 2% increase over the third quarter. According to another report, consumer spending in the United States, which showed personal consumption expenditure, rose by 3% in December 2010, providing an important impetus for the US economic recovery. The market is very optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery in the United States. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, economists’ expected median value of US economic growth in 2011 increased to 3.2%, reaching the highest level in seven years.
In 2010, the global economy maintained its momentum of recovery. GDP growth rate was around 4.6%. Emerging economies are still the main driving force for global economic growth. The world’s advanced economies continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policies, and some countries with strong growth momentum have increased inflationary pressure. The global economy continues to recover, and the United States’ second round of quantitative easing monetary and other policies has increased inflation expectations. In 2010, the international commodity market rose sharply in the shock: crude oil once broke through 92 US dollars/barrel; Lunbron reached a record high of US$9392/ton, and Lon Aluminium also rose above US$2,450/ton; agricultural products rebounded very quickly. The CRB index representing the international commodity index reached a record high, reaching 614.79 points, surpassing the high point set in July 2008. The market almost unanimously believes that the commodity market will enter a new bull market and will continue in 2011.
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