In April, macroeconomic data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the central government's major functional departments were intensively introduced. Under the weight of the international financial crisis, China's macroeconomic trends in the first quarter have aroused widespread concern. Does the Chinese economy pick up?
Behind the series of data, it reflects the development trend of China's economy in 2009.
Data: As an important indicator of macroeconomics, the Manufacturing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded for four consecutive months in March and broke through the 50-point watershed, climbing to 52.4 points.
Analysis: Expert analysis pointed out that the PMI remained above 50, indicating that the domestic destocking adjustment is gradually coming to an end, and the output growth begins to recover.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the PMI index in March exceeded 50% for the first time in less than 50% for six consecutive months. In particular, the production index and the new order index have remained above 50% for two consecutive months, indicating the economy. Growth has changed from low to high.
The decline in electricity consumption in the whole society is gradually reduced. Data: From January to March this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 780.99 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.02%. In March, the electricity consumption of the whole society fell by 2.01% year-on-year.
Analysis: Although the electricity consumption still has a year-on-year decline, the monthly decline in the monthly decline has become a trend. According to the statistics of the State Grid, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in March was -1.46%, which was 6.1 times higher than that in December last year. Percentage points have shown signs of stabilizing electricity demand. Behind the change in electricity consumption is the fact that industrial electricity has a certain degree of "recovery".
Xue Jing, head of the statistics department of the China Electricity Council, said: "In terms of comprehensive indicators, the current social power consumption is at the bottom of the shock, and gradually move toward the good side." Tsinghua University China and World Economic Research Center Director Li Daokui pointed out that in combination with the PMI index and the increase in corporate orders, it can be expected that the worst period of the Chinese economy is passing.
March foreign trade import and export growth in March Data: Customs statistics, China's total import and export value in March was 160.22 billion US dollars, down 20.9% year on year, exports fell 17.1%, imports fell 25.1%. Compared with the previous two months, the year-on-year decline was reduced by 6.3, 4 and 9.1 percentage points respectively. Calculated by the comparable caliber of the average working day level, the chain ratio increased by 23.8%, 32.8% and 14% respectively.
Analysis: The General Administration of Customs said that these indicators indicate that China's foreign trade began to show signs of improvement in March. Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economics Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that the decline in China's foreign trade import and export has narrowed. But this does not mean that external demand has improved, but China's policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth and the independent adjustment of enterprises have begun to see some results.
New RMB loans in the first quarter of 4.58 trillion yuan: Central bank data show that new loans in March reached 1.89 trillion yuan, plus new loans in the first two months, RMB loans increased by 4.58 trillion yuan in the first quarter. , an increase of 3.25 trillion yuan year on year.
Analysis: Compared with the huge amount of new credit, people are more concerned about the structural changes of new credit. Among the new money supply in March, broad money supply (M2) increased by 25.51% year-on-year, and narrow money supply (M1) increased by 17.04% year-on-year. Both indicators have surged significantly compared to previous periods.
Experts pointed out that the rapid rebound of M2 reflects the characteristics of China's abundant liquidity. This abundant liquidity is of great significance for stimulating the economy; M1 maintains high growth, indicating that the funds used by enterprises for investment operations are increasing, and the destocking of enterprises is coming to an end.
However, Chen Yong, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities, also pointed out that this round of credit growth is mainly targeted at large projects and large companies led by the central and local governments, that is, banks commonly known as “Tiegongji†(infrastructure construction such as railways and highways). Projects, while private enterprises, SME loan gates still feel tight.
CPI and PPI continue to decline data: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, China's consumer price (CPI) fell by 0.6% in the first quarter, with a decrease of 1.2% in March. The industrial product price (PPI) fell by 4.6 in the first quarter. %, which fell by 0.3% in March.
Analysis: It is worth noting that although the two price indicators continue to show negative values, their declines are narrowing. As far as CPI is concerned, the year-on-year decline in March was lower than the 1.6% negative growth in February, while the PPI year-on-year decline has expanded, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed month by month, with a decrease of 1.4% in January and a decrease of 0.7% in February. The chain fell by 0.3% in March.
“This reflects the fact that companies closely related to the 4 trillion yuan investment have begun to stop destocking, and demand has gradually increased,†said Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the Asian Bank's representative office in China.
Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Southwest Securities, said that from the CPI trend, the deflation cloud is dissipating. He expects that the growth rate of PPI and CPI will rebound sharply during the year. Tang Jianwei, a senior macroeconomic researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Department, said: "The Chinese export situation during the year may prompt many companies to export their domestic products, which will increase domestic commodity supply and put downward pressure on domestic prices."
Li Daokui still reminds that the outlook should not be too optimistic. The macroeconomic changes are not immediately transmitted to the lives of ordinary people. The employment problem of college students and the income increase of rural and urban residents are difficult to follow with the macro economy. Changes in data are resolved at one time. Behind the data, solving employment and protecting people's livelihood are still issues that need to be focused on.
Behind the series of data, it reflects the development trend of China's economy in 2009.
Data: As an important indicator of macroeconomics, the Manufacturing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded for four consecutive months in March and broke through the 50-point watershed, climbing to 52.4 points.
Analysis: Expert analysis pointed out that the PMI remained above 50, indicating that the domestic destocking adjustment is gradually coming to an end, and the output growth begins to recover.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the PMI index in March exceeded 50% for the first time in less than 50% for six consecutive months. In particular, the production index and the new order index have remained above 50% for two consecutive months, indicating the economy. Growth has changed from low to high.
The decline in electricity consumption in the whole society is gradually reduced. Data: From January to March this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 780.99 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.02%. In March, the electricity consumption of the whole society fell by 2.01% year-on-year.
Analysis: Although the electricity consumption still has a year-on-year decline, the monthly decline in the monthly decline has become a trend. According to the statistics of the State Grid, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in March was -1.46%, which was 6.1 times higher than that in December last year. Percentage points have shown signs of stabilizing electricity demand. Behind the change in electricity consumption is the fact that industrial electricity has a certain degree of "recovery".
Xue Jing, head of the statistics department of the China Electricity Council, said: "In terms of comprehensive indicators, the current social power consumption is at the bottom of the shock, and gradually move toward the good side." Tsinghua University China and World Economic Research Center Director Li Daokui pointed out that in combination with the PMI index and the increase in corporate orders, it can be expected that the worst period of the Chinese economy is passing.
March foreign trade import and export growth in March Data: Customs statistics, China's total import and export value in March was 160.22 billion US dollars, down 20.9% year on year, exports fell 17.1%, imports fell 25.1%. Compared with the previous two months, the year-on-year decline was reduced by 6.3, 4 and 9.1 percentage points respectively. Calculated by the comparable caliber of the average working day level, the chain ratio increased by 23.8%, 32.8% and 14% respectively.
Analysis: The General Administration of Customs said that these indicators indicate that China's foreign trade began to show signs of improvement in March. Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economics Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that the decline in China's foreign trade import and export has narrowed. But this does not mean that external demand has improved, but China's policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth and the independent adjustment of enterprises have begun to see some results.
New RMB loans in the first quarter of 4.58 trillion yuan: Central bank data show that new loans in March reached 1.89 trillion yuan, plus new loans in the first two months, RMB loans increased by 4.58 trillion yuan in the first quarter. , an increase of 3.25 trillion yuan year on year.
Analysis: Compared with the huge amount of new credit, people are more concerned about the structural changes of new credit. Among the new money supply in March, broad money supply (M2) increased by 25.51% year-on-year, and narrow money supply (M1) increased by 17.04% year-on-year. Both indicators have surged significantly compared to previous periods.
Experts pointed out that the rapid rebound of M2 reflects the characteristics of China's abundant liquidity. This abundant liquidity is of great significance for stimulating the economy; M1 maintains high growth, indicating that the funds used by enterprises for investment operations are increasing, and the destocking of enterprises is coming to an end.
However, Chen Yong, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities, also pointed out that this round of credit growth is mainly targeted at large projects and large companies led by the central and local governments, that is, banks commonly known as “Tiegongji†(infrastructure construction such as railways and highways). Projects, while private enterprises, SME loan gates still feel tight.
CPI and PPI continue to decline data: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, China's consumer price (CPI) fell by 0.6% in the first quarter, with a decrease of 1.2% in March. The industrial product price (PPI) fell by 4.6 in the first quarter. %, which fell by 0.3% in March.
Analysis: It is worth noting that although the two price indicators continue to show negative values, their declines are narrowing. As far as CPI is concerned, the year-on-year decline in March was lower than the 1.6% negative growth in February, while the PPI year-on-year decline has expanded, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed month by month, with a decrease of 1.4% in January and a decrease of 0.7% in February. The chain fell by 0.3% in March.
“This reflects the fact that companies closely related to the 4 trillion yuan investment have begun to stop destocking, and demand has gradually increased,†said Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the Asian Bank's representative office in China.
Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Southwest Securities, said that from the CPI trend, the deflation cloud is dissipating. He expects that the growth rate of PPI and CPI will rebound sharply during the year. Tang Jianwei, a senior macroeconomic researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Department, said: "The Chinese export situation during the year may prompt many companies to export their domestic products, which will increase domestic commodity supply and put downward pressure on domestic prices."
Li Daokui still reminds that the outlook should not be too optimistic. The macroeconomic changes are not immediately transmitted to the lives of ordinary people. The employment problem of college students and the income increase of rural and urban residents are difficult to follow with the macro economy. Changes in data are resolved at one time. Behind the data, solving employment and protecting people's livelihood are still issues that need to be focused on.
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