Zhou Xiaochuan: China cannot rely too much on monetary policy

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, attended the sub-forum of the G20: Global Vision China Program in the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia. He said that the current world economic recovery is weak, and this year's G20 summit will discuss macroeconomic policy coordination. Although monetary policy is important, it cannot be over-reliant on it, but it must also play the role of fiscal policy.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that the G20 is a product of the crisis. The first meeting in 1999 was to deal with the Asian financial crisis. In 2002, the summit was upgraded to cope with the global financial crisis. The so-called response to the crisis is what can be used to cause recovery, and how to maintain stronger, more balanced and sustainable growth after the recovery, which involves the coordination of macroeconomic policies.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that from the perspective of demand, the coordination of aggregate demand policy is the focus. It can be seen that in terms of monetary policy, some countries have implemented quantitative easing, some countries have implemented both quantitative and qualitative easing, and some countries have implemented negative interest rates. Therefore, this year’s G20 Finance and Economics will review the effect of quantitative easing and the future number is loose. How the policy exits, including its “spill effect”. In addition, some countries have just begun to implement easing policies, which need to be observed. All of the above need to be discussed to enhance the coordination of macro policies.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that although monetary policy is important, it cannot be over-reliant on it, but it must also play a good role in fiscal policy. The role played by fiscal policy in the near future is even more important. Since the fiscal policy space varies from country to country, it is necessary to discuss under what circumstances, such as the deficit rate or the total debt ratio, there is room for more fiscal policy. In addition to expenditure, fiscal policy and income, the tax that can be collected is only available, and there is room for these policies.
In addition, Zhou Xiaochuan said that this year's G20 discussion is more concerned with structural policies. Some economies have prominent structural contradictions. They cannot rely on fiscal and monetary policies to solve problems. They must reform their own structural characteristics. Although this will take longer, these policies will ultimately solve the problem.
In the context of global financial market volatility, Zhou Xiaochuan said that exchange rate disputes may be related to commodity price cuts, and commodity prices, especially oil prices, have fallen sharply, causing some oil-producing countries to suffer balance in payments. The larger impact, the exchange rate began to change first, and then caused financial market storms, including changes in various aspects of the stock market. Therefore, this summit will strengthen communication and coordination on the exchange rate policy, but everyone does not recommend a competitive devaluation approach to solve the problem, and cannot rely on excessive local exchange rate depreciation to stimulate exports.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that the exchange rate and macroeconomic policies together will have an impact on capital flows. There are some abnormalities in capital flows, especially in the recent period when capital flows are less favorable to emerging market countries. This is a problem that needs to be discussed in coordination. This kind of coordination discussion does not necessarily lead to a consensus document, but after communication, countries will refer to the results of joint discussions in formulating and implementing macroeconomic policies to make the policy more coordinated.
SDR, Zhou Xiaochuan said that SDR is designed by international organizations, it helps risk management and ease fluctuations, and the Chinese central bank will gradually increase the use of SDR.

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