International Markets: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals rose mixed on Monday, with copper ending higher, as the market has gained stable support due to tight supply. LME three-month copper closed at US$3,112 per ton, and the composite trading price closed at 3,081 on Friday. Spot/three-month inversion spreads widened to about $150 and last Friday was $137. Three-month aluminum fell by $2 to 1,847, but received strong support. Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed higher at lighter conditions on Monday. The benchmark index rose by approximately 0.65 cents to end at 1.4450 US dollars per pound, and the intraday trading range was 1.4225 to 1.4540 US dollars. 0.90 cents to 1.4405 US dollars, hitting a contract high of 1.45 US dollars. Estimated volume is approximately 20,000. Shanghai Market: The main copper contract of SHFE copper Cu0501 opened higher at 30,000. It gradually rose throughout the day and closed at 30260. The gains in medium range, Cu0501 lightened 1568 positions, and Cu0502 increased 5176 lots. The turnover was relatively active. Aluminum AL0502 opened slightly higher at 15950. After opening for about 35 minutes, the price rose slightly. Later it showed a sideways trend. The late price was pulled up to a higher price of 16020 throughout the day. Trading and positions were enlarged. Fundamental analysis: The strike of the El Abra copper mine in northern Chile for 22 days has ended on Friday. A trade union leader claimed that 450 strikers and workers who had been on strike had already voted for a new contract. The copper mine is the United States. Copper producer Phelps Dodge Holdings. Union spokesman Rodrigo Hernandez said union workers will resume work on Sunday. The strike is a long-running copper mining industry in Chile in recent years. At one time, the company said that the output was not affected. According to the CRU's statistical data, the balance of supply and demand data for the world's copper in the second half of this year alone has basically balanced and slightly decreased from the cumulative supply shortage of 552,000 tons in the first half of this year. Tens of thousands of surplus changes. However, even if the demand growth trend slows down to less than 10% per year between 2004 and 2010, China’s import demand for various forms of copper (copper, copper scrap, brass, and electrolytic copper) will grow by more than 60%. In the import of raw materials and electrolytic copper, China is still expected to be a bullish factor in the global copper market. The accelerating decline of dominant inventory cannot be attributed to the mere consumption. In the context of the expected increase in production in 2005 and the appreciation of the renminbi, further price increases will still lack sufficient fundamental support. With the continuous increase in high copper prices and processing fees, global copper mining companies and smelting enterprises have resumed production and expanded production. By 2008, the global copper supply gap will reach a balance of supply and even excess. The current high spot price impact on downstream processing companies is also increasing. The main copper rod manufacturers have begun to reduce their output because they do not have equipment. The increase in prices also brings problems to the cable industry. Some downstream companies are Forced to cut production or even shut down due to high raw material prices. At present, the downstream consumption of copper is in a relatively short-lived state due to excessive prices. The lack of demand for high copper prices will gradually fall back. The continued depreciation of the US dollar is another strong support for the rise in copper prices. After U.S. President Bush renewed his post, he expressed support for the strong US dollar and devoted economic reforms during the second term to reduce the deficit. The two-day meeting of the finance ministers of the Group of 20 (G20) and central bankers ended on the 21st in Berlin, Germany. The G20 finance officials attending the meeting reached an agreement and said that they would not welcome "substantial changes" in exchange rates and oil prices. US Treasury Secretary Snow said that the United States will promise to reduce the deficit by about half by 2009. Therefore, it is unlikely that the dollar will continue to depreciate. LME copper stocks fell by 150 tons to 59,300 tons over the weekend, of which 41,975 tons were available for delivery. Copper and aluminum stocks have fallen, indicating that the fundamentals are quite strong. The cancellation of warehouse receipts also increased, indicating that short-term demand is still strong. On the whole, short-term copper prices may still oscillate higher, but I expect that copper prices will fall in the fourth quarter of this year, but the global economy is still going well. Due to the strong demand, the decline will not be too great and the speed will not be too fast. Xie Aihong Shanghai Fuel: Sideways consolidation of the international market: Singapore 180 CST Fuel Oil (Information Forum) prices fell on Monday, spot 180 cst fuel oil prices fell 3.5 US dollars over the previous trading day, reported to 200.25 US dollars per ton. 380 cst cargo prices are also Prices closed at $184.13 per tonne, down $3.25 from last Friday. Traders said physical market and swap market conditions were stagnant, there was no transaction, and there was only one seller in the physical market. NYMEX crude oil futures closed higher on Monday. Previous gas leaks caused a large field in the North Sea to close. NYMEX January crude oil futures rose about 0.32 US dollars, the price reported 49.76 US dollars a barrel. The technical support for this period is around US$48 with resistance at US$50. British Brent crude oil futures rose 1.18 US dollars to 45.75 US dollars a barrel. Shanghai Market: The main contract of FU0503 opened slightly higher at 2175. The price fluctuates little throughout the day, showing a sideways trend and closing at 2174. Fundamental analysis: On November 29, domestic fuel oil prices fell slightly. On Monday, the price of fuel oil in South China market fell slightly. Singapore's quality mixed high-sulphur 180CST refutation quotation was in the range of 2250-2280 yuan/ton, and the quotation for ships was in the range of 2280-2300 yuan/ton. The international crude oil market is unclear. The Singapore market's fuel oil prices have not shown clear signals. The large gap between the prices quoted by various businesses reflects the fact that the market has no clear guidance on the situation in the future. The Huangpu market is not expected to trade heavily. The buyer's bid price was around 2,200 yuan/ton, and the transactions were scarce. The market generally bears bearish trend. The straight-run oil resources in the Huangpu market are scarce. It is understood that the Russian oil imported by Dongfeng International once on the 26th was no longer available, and the company was sold before the arrival of the cargo. The current Russian oil premium is higher than 40 US dollars / ton above, it is estimated that the cost price in the Huangpu market is about 2,600 yuan / ton, the user deterred from this, so the importer's ordering intentions are lukewarm. According to the schedule, in early December, there will be a total of 65,000 tons of Russian oil and two vessels of 80,000 tons of straight-run oil from Saudi Arabia, which will relieve the shortage of straight-run oil, but shippers will also feel the pressure of sales. This week (November 29 to December 3), the arrival of goods is relatively concentrated, with an initial estimate of approximately 400,000 tons. If the external oil price is high, the Huangpu market will be under double pressure. On November 29, the price of fuel oil in East China remained stable. The Shanghai fuel oil market price was unchanged from last Friday, as most of the merchants still took a wait-and-see attitude due to the unclear performance of international crude oil futures. Buyers are buying on demand, leading to the phenomenon that the market does not have a large number of shipments. The oil companies also stated that the current market fundamentals do not allow fuel oil prices to fluctuate. In addition, the international market expects that the demand for fuel oil in the Chinese market will not increase significantly in the next few months, as the Chinese New Year will not have enough demand during the period from the beginning of February. Usually the Chinese market buyers will carry out oil-refining operations within one to two months before the new year. Overall, although domestic spot prices have risen slightly, the wait-and-see atmosphere is still relatively strong and trading is light. Buyers are generally bearish and the trend of international crude oil is unknown. It is expected that the short-term fuel oil will be more likely to go sideways. Xie Aihong
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