PV policy will double the market capacity

According to analysis, the surplus of China's PV industry in the second half of the year may be greatly eased.

According to Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities Power Equipment New Energy, China's PV support policy will be launched in the near future, which is strong and may support market capacity doubling. "We believe that domestic installed capacity has entered a period of rapid growth, domestically in 2013-2015. The demand is 11GW, 14GW, 18GW, and the compound growth rate is maintained at 30%."

The Chinese PV industry is facing the darkness before dawn.

In the face of the EU's "double-reverse" policy, Li said that the most difficult time for the photovoltaic industry may have arrived. "We estimate that the installed capacity in the European market this year will be no less than 30% of the global market. The market is in the doldrums." If you suddenly lose 30% of the market, it is undoubtedly fatal to many Chinese PV companies."

On May 15th, local time, the anti-dumping committee of the EU member states voted on the "double-reverse" case of China's photovoltaic products. At the time of writing yesterday, the final message has not yet been sent.

The slightest sight that can be seen is that some analysts said that the surplus of China's PV industry in the second half of the year may be greatly eased. According to Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities Power Equipment New Energy, China's PV support policy will be launched in the near future, which is strong and may support market capacity doubling. "We believe that domestic installed capacity has entered a period of rapid growth, domestically in 2013-2015. The demand is 11GW, 14GW, 18GW, and the compound growth rate is maintained at 30%."

Invalidity of the "double-reverse" policy

Before the final implementation of the PV “double-reverse” policy in the European Union in December this year, Solar World, a German PV company that initiated “double-reverse”, may have been difficult to protect itself.

An overseas PV investor told the Morning Post reporter, "Solar World now needs $1 billion in borrowing to avoid bankruptcy. Currently it is in the Middle East, looking for help from sovereign funds to complete the transformation. 'Beginners' can't get from 'double anti-' The survival of the industry is due to the shrinking of the entire industry, and Solar World's own operations are very inefficient."

Trying to protect the behavior of domestic companies by establishing trade barriers is often ineffective.

Barry G. Broome, president of the Greater Phoenix Economic Commission in Arizona, told the Morning Post reporter that "all anti-dumping actions in the United States have failed in the end, whether it is steel, automobiles, rubber, or eventually overseas products can enter the United States. In the market, the company that has closed down in the country is still closed down."

“In the future, many Chinese companies will also be regarded as American companies, hiring American workers. Suntech’s factory in Arizona is a good example. They have built intensive photovoltaic applications locally, and local residents are welcome, but in the end, because of the United States. The tariff policy, they are still closed," Barry Bloom said.

JeFF Nestel-Patt, director of market communications for GT Advanced Technologies in the United States, also said in an interview with the Morning Post that in the long run, trade barriers will not have much impact on Chinese PV companies, because Chinese companies will always think of ways to go around.

Andy London, global manager of the global photovoltaic silver paste leader Heraeus Optoelectronics, told reporters that European PV module companies are inferior in scale and efficiency compared to Chinese companies, and it is difficult to compete. Many companies have closed down two years ago. Even Bosch Solar is looking for buyers.

“Chinese companies have indeed done a good job, offering low-cost batteries and modules, which have also benefited European companies, including upstream equipment suppliers and downstream installations,” Andy London said.

PV companies carefully choose customers

According to data from consulting firm NPD Solarbuzz, demand for new solar power projects in Europe fell by about 12% year-on-year (from the same period last year) to 16.48 due to the economic downturn in the Eurozone and the reduction in subsidies for renewable energy projects. GW.

According to data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, in 2012, China's exports of photovoltaic products to Europe fell by 45.1% year-on-year to US$11.2 billion.

NPD Solarbuzz said that the sharp drop in China's PV products exports to Europe last year may have been affected by a 50% drop in the price of crystalline silicon solar panels in that year, and the total number of shipments has not decreased.

However, Li Xiande said that as long as it is fully prepared, it can avoid harm. "I can say that I can not want the European market. When we started the European 'double anti-' in 2012, we set a plan. I emphasized with the management. Don't be lucky. Since then, we have signed cooperation agreements with major energy groups such as the Three Gorges Group to open up the domestic market. In 2012, domestic component shipments accounted for 45% of the total shipments of Jingke, and 2011. The figure for the year is 17%.

However, the domestic PV market has a problem of slow payback cycles. Li Xiande told the Morning Post reporter that China's solar power station business model is mature, but there are risks, mainly because government subsidies are not in place, so the project financing is difficult, and then the payment default is caused. "Whether Jingke is in arrears, the key depends on customer choice. If you choose well, it will be better. It is more difficult to choose the bad ones. It is all over the country."

Although the photovoltaic industry is still in deep crisis, some companies' business data has begun to improve. Artes Solar Power announced that its first-quarter component shipments will be significantly higher than previously.

Artes said that its expected gross margin increase has exceeded the previous target, indicating that the average selling price pressure is not as bad as expected, and the gross profit margin is expected to be in the range of 9% to 10%, while the previous target was 8%-10. %, 5% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Zhang Hanbing, senior director of the global market for solar power in Artes, told the Morning Post reporter that “the performance of our financial report exceeded the previous expectations in the first quarter, which is attributed to our more careful choice of customers. For example, the payment method of the other party must be beneficial to us, as long as there is risk. We will not do it. At the same time, in terms of market strategy, we are also focusing on securing profits. We will not do anything at a loss, and will not lower prices in order to impact shipments."

Zhang Hanbing said that Artes also hopes that half of the total revenue this year will come from the system, further reducing the proportion of component revenue, because the system's income is higher.

Wang Haisheng said that in the first quarter, China's PV industry's fundamentals were slightly better than the previous quarter (compared with the previous quarter). In the first half of the year, it is expected to improve year-on-year. Most of the enterprises will turn from huge losses to slight losses, and some enterprises will turn losses. It is expected that the performance of some downstream enterprises is expected to pick up with the arrival of the power plant transfer settlement period from the end of the year to the first half of next year.

Overcapacity begins to reverse

Wang Haisheng said that if the domestic market starts as scheduled, the surplus of China's PV industry chain will ease in the second half of the year.

As an excipient, Heraeus has also felt the changes in the market. Andy London said that although China's PV market is difficult, it is still growing. "Many PV companies have lost money in the past year, but component prices have gradually stabilized, overcapacity has improved, some small companies have disappeared, and some have been acquired. Integrated."

The photovoltaic industry chain consists of upstream silicon wafers, mid-stream photovoltaic cells and components, downstream PV module installation and power station development. The most profound experience of the current slowdown in the expansion of PV companies should be PV equipment suppliers, which are at the forefront of the entire PV industry chain.

Reinhard Benz, director of solar strategy sales and product marketing at TEL (Tokyo Electronics), told the Morning Post reporter that "the demand for photovoltaic equipment is currently very weak. Because outdated equipment still exists and the number is large, in the case of the industry is still relatively low, the enterprise The demand for new equipment and new technologies is very low, investors are not confident enough, and they are unwilling to increase their financial burden. Naturally, no new production lines will be added."

According to Reinhard Benz, the overcapacity of the company is still very serious, exceeding 50% of demand, but the excess is decreasing. In the next two to three years, perhaps this number will drop to 10%-20%, although it still can't match, but it will be much more reasonable. Next, the market may enter a new round of cycles.

“China is still the most important market for the company. It has the strongest growth here. We expect China's PV installations to be around 10GW this year.” Reinhard Benz revealed that TEL Solar's largest customer in China is Hanergy.

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