Overcapacity of methanol should be innovatively developed

In the course of the development of the methanol industry in China in the past few years, its excess capacity has also been in the shadows and has been accompanied by it. In 2012, it may be the worst year for companies engaged in methanol in the past decade or so. According to statistics, more than 80% of the methanol companies are loss-making or flat.

Methanol is one of the basic organic raw materials and is mainly used in medicine, coatings, and agriculture. In recent years, the methanol industry in China has developed rapidly. As a result, it has also had a major impact on China's national economy and industrial structure. However, the development of the methanol industry has not been easy. Problems such as overcapacity and non-standard industries have also hampered the healthy development of the methanol industry.

Business community methanol industry analyst Pan Na said in an interview with a reporter from the "China Sankei Shimbun" that the slow downstream demand for methanol is due to deep adjustments in the real estate, construction and other industries related to methanol downstream products. The lack of demand has directly led to the upstream methanol industry. Downturn.

In the face of shrinking downstream demand, it has encountered excess capacity. Pan Na told reporters that at present, the methanol industry is sluggish, and the most important factor is excess capacity. Upstream work and new methanol projects have become a source of excess capacity, while downstream demand has continued to slump. As a result, it has also created a 'strange circle' where the industry is in a downturn.

According to the data from the 2013-2017 China Methanol Industry Forecast and Investment Strategy Report published by China Business Intelligence Network, the national output in 2012 reached 2,440,460 tons, an increase of 15.08% year-on-year.

According to Chang Yuzhi, a researcher in the chemical industry who was interviewed by a reporter from the "China Sankei Shimbun", because of the low barriers to entry, a large amount of money has flowed into the methanol industry. As China's economy has slumped, it has also led to contradictions between supply and demand. The more intense the performance.

Chang Zhizhi stated that under the stimulation of the downstream buyer's control and the increase of upstream inventory, some companies started to enter the downstream market. However, due to the industry's own characteristics, a simple integrated operation can not effectively improve the industry's entry threshold. As a result, funds will continue to flood into the downstream industries, eventually leading to excess capacity in the entire methanol industry.

According to the latest data released by the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, by the end of 2012, China's total methanol production capacity reached 51.481 million tons, accounting for about 50% of the world's total production capacity. The industry-wide methanol plant start-up load increased by 4.3 percentage points over the previous year, but still Only 60.8%, the output was 31.29 million tons and the apparent consumption was 36.22 million tons.

Although the operating rate of the methanol industry in China has increased compared to last year, in the face of overcapacity in the industry, if the problem of overcapacity cannot be properly resolved, then the methanol industry will still face various problems in the future development. problem.

According to Pan Na, as the intensity of methanol gasoline pilot promotion is increased, methanol, olefins, methanol and aromatics, etc., will be put into operation in emerging consumer projects. The actual demand for methanol will also increase.

Chang Yongzhi also believes that the future opportunities for the development of the methanol industry will be reflected in new application areas. From the current point of view, manufacturing of olefins production products is the most effective diversion of resolving the excess capacity of upstream methanol.

Faced with the economic downturn at home and abroad, what challenges will China's methanol industry face in the future? Chang Zhizhi told reporters that the challenge facing the future development of the methanol industry lies in how to effectively improve industry entry barriers. In this regard, it is necessary to prevent large influx of funds into the upper-middle-stream area, resulting in more serious overcapacity and avoiding new ones. The consumption sector once again evolved into excess capacity.