Since the official release of the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Revitalization of Equipment Manufacturing Industry" in June this year, follow-up policies have been continuously introduced, including the "Regulations on Mergers and Acquisitions of Domestic Enterprises by Foreign Investors" and "Regulations on Adjusting the Export Tax Rebate Rate of Some Export Commodities" The notice was the most impactful, and the special plan for guiding the development of specific industries, “Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Shipbuilding (2006~2015)†was also issued, and the revitalization policy was developed in a refined and operational manner as scheduled.
According to information revealed by some leaders at recent related equipment manufacturing conferences, industry insiders believe that there will be several highly-regarded policies in the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of next year. For example: the revision of the foreign investment guidance catalogue, encourage the export policy of mechanical and electrical products, encourage independent innovation policies, encourage the use of domestic equipment, special plans for the machine tool industry, etc. Moreover, the impact of these follow-up policies on enterprises is more specific and direct. Relevant industries, such as machine tools, construction machinery, shipbuilding, aircraft manufacturing, mining machinery, etc., will receive unprecedented support in taxation, capital, research and development, and market. Both the recent performance and the long-term development will benefit (the main policies that have been introduced and expected to be introduced in the near future are detailed in the attached table).
For a large industry, such a high-density introduction of a series of policies can be said to be unprecedented, which is enough to illustrate the government's determination to revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry. Behind the determination, perhaps people can see the big ideas that promote industrial upgrading and drive economic restructuring.
From the experience of foreign countries, the rise of developing countries and regions has experienced the low value-added, labor-intensive and resource-intensive stages. If the upgrading of manufacturing industry cannot be achieved, the development of capital, technology, knowledge and innovation will be higher. Industry, products, and economic growth will eventually be flat. The winners are Japan and South Korea, and the losers are Brazil and Argentina, which are Latin American countries. Recently, a series of policies of the Chinese government are clearly aimed at this issue. In the next few years, the domestic manufacturing industry will undoubtedly follow the general direction of industrial upgrading and become the main field for stimulating exports, economic growth and structural adjustment. Due to the unique conditions of China's manufacturing policy, market, talents, capital, technology, industrial base, etc., the development trend is very worthy of optimism.
Investment growth, although there are variables, but will not fall too far. From the recent investment data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, urban fixed asset investment in August increased by 21.5% year-on-year, down 5.9% from the previous month, and the rate of decline exceeded expectations. Since the 7% decline in July, fixed-asset investment has fallen for two consecutive months. Since the second quarter, the effect of high-frequency macro-control policies has gradually emerged. Although the fixed asset investment from January to August was 29.1%, it is still in a high range. With the decline in growth rate, it is expected that the next step of the policy will be to maintain the existing regulatory results, and the more severe regulation is expected to gradually weaken.
However, the decline in investment growth has caused new concerns for everyone. Will the trend of decline continue? Will the fall in investment affect downstream demand? Which segments are less affected? Moreover, will the high base brought by the rapid growth in the first two quarters of this year adversely affect the growth rate of next year's performance?
It is difficult to define the growth rate of investment. It is difficult to define itself. However, since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" has just begun, it is necessary to achieve a set of targets. From the historical data, the growth rate of 20% to 25% is an ideal interval. . From the perspective of economic growth, the investment-driven economic growth model is difficult to change in the short term, so there is no need to worry about the excessive decline in growth rate.
The policy revitalization of the protagonist machine tool industry first benefited from the policy point of view, the state attaches great importance to the development of machine tool industry, the development of the CNC industry has been listed in the "National Medium- and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan" and "State Council on the revitalization of equipment manufacturing, several opinions" important task Among them. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, at the latest until the first half of next year, the long-awaited "Nuclear Machine Tool Special Plan" will be introduced. Judging from the current information, the planning objectives are quite specific, and the related supporting fiscal, taxation, and tariff policies are more favorable, which will bring direct benefits to machine tool enterprises.
From the sales data, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased by 34.42% from January to August this year, among which the output of high-precision machine tools and CNC machine tools increased evenly, reaching 75.82% and 50.99% respectively, showing a good growth trend. If you look at the demand for upgrading from downstream manufacturing, as the "master machine", the prosperity of the machine tool industry will be long-term. From the perspective of import substitution and industrial transfer, China, as the world's largest machine tool consumer, has an import demand of more than US$6 billion per year.
The cyclical characteristics are obviously low. The valuation of construction machinery is low. The downstream demand of machinery industry, especially construction machinery, is highly correlated with investment. The seasonal and cyclical changes in investment often have a greater impact on product sales. However, the response of different products to investment growth is somewhat different. Shovel-moving machinery, concrete machinery, compaction machinery, etc., which are highly correlated with infrastructure investment and real estate, are more affected by changes in investment growth rate, and the fluctuation range is large. Forklifts and cranes have smaller fluctuations and the growth momentum is obvious. From the control effect at the beginning of 2004, the sensitivity of these major categories of products from high to low is compaction machinery, earthmoving machinery, concrete machinery, cranes, forklifts. However, with the acceleration of infrastructure investment since the beginning of 2005, its proportion in fixed asset investment has increased, and the impact of related earthmoving machinery and concrete machinery has been greatly weakened.
The hot market for construction machinery in the first quarter of this year is obvious to all, and the sales growth rate of major products is above 30%. However, one of the main reasons for this high growth rate is the low base in early 2005 and the decline in demand due to the pessimistic expectations of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2005. If we look at the total amount, many products have basically reached the best level since the regulation in 2004, but the increase in output is not outrageous and will not form an excessive base for the growth in 2007. After the second quarter of regulation, although the output was affected by the seasonal impact, the output of the main products in addition to compaction machinery and concrete machinery maintained a relatively high growth rate (the decline in concrete machinery growth rate was due to the higher production base in the same period last year). Next year, the factors driving the domestic market demand, such as railways, highways, urban public transport, real estate, etc., will not change much, and with the development of foreign markets, the proportion of export revenue will further increase.
Orders and prices are high, and the efficiency of shipbuilding companies exceeds expectations. From the recent price of new ship orders, the price of various types of oil tankers and bulk carriers has reached a new high this year, and the global market is still hot. Since the orders of major shipyards in Korea and Japan are basically scheduled to be in 2009 or even after 2010, China's shipbuilding industry has begun to release large-scale production capacity after 2008. It is speculated that due to the impact of the elimination of the common specifications of single-hull tankers before 2009-2010, the oil tanker market will maintain its prosperity until 2008.
In the past few years, the quantitative reduction of bulk carriers has caused a shortage of supply of bulk carriers a few years later, thus further extending the boom cycle of the shipping market. Since the construction period of the shipbuilding industry is generally more than one year, the high-priced orders signed after 2005 will be built after the second quarter of 2006, and the steel prices will continue to fall in the near future. It is expected to remain basically low next year. It is expected that the major enterprises in the shipbuilding industry will benefit greatly this year and next. The momentum of increase is more certain and may exceed expectations.
Asset injection continues to be a huge capacity in the aviation manufacturing market. Recently, the asset injection of listed companies in the aviation industry has always been a hot spot in the market. The two major aviation groups in China and the airlines of the First Group have a clearer idea. The second airline basically completes the aviation and automobiles of local companies. Separation of industries and the future direction of capital operations are still unclear. From the orders of the aviation market, the procurement of military workers has been quite full in recent years. With the opening of the air transport industry and civil aviation in the future, the market capacity is considerable. Moreover, from the perspective of national security and industrial upgrading, aircraft manufacturing is also an important part of revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry.
The opportunity for upgrading has brought about a high-end coal machinery. Since the beginning of 2002, after four years of investment, the output of raw coal has increased by more than 58%, basically alleviating the shortage of coal in the previous period. It is expected that the investment in the coal industry will stabilize in the next few years. However, historical data shows that the investment in the coal industry accounted for a record low of 0.57% in 2000. The consequence of the coal industry is the shortage in the next few years. Therefore, from the perspective of energy security, it is expected that this will be the future. The ratio will not be below 1%, and the annual growth is not a big problem in double digits. From January to August this year, the growth rate of investment in coal mining and washing industry was 36.3%. Although it began to fall due to macroeconomic regulation and control in May, it remained at a relatively high level.
From the planning of the coal industry, the future coal industry will be oriented to large-scale enterprises, mechanization of production, high efficiency and high safety. The demand of the coal machinery industry will not only rely on new capacity, but the replacement of old equipment will be Bringing the main point of coal engine boom, bringing new development opportunities to the coal mining industry, especially high-end products
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