According to a recent report published by Roskill Corporation, a metal consultancy based in London, UK, as new and expanded projects are planned to be completed and put into production, the supply and demand in the international tungsten market continue to shortage in 2011~2012. After that, the shortage situation will be significantly alleviated by 2013, and even it will be turned into excess. However, once these new and expanded production capacity projects are postponed, the shortage of market supply and demand will continue for some time. According to the report, in recent years, the international tungsten market price has become stronger than other similar rare metals such as cobalt, nickel and molybdenum. For example, during the financial crisis of 2009, the average price of tungsten was only 28% lower than the average price before the crisis. In contrast, the price of molybdenum fell by 64%, the price of cobalt fell by 48%, and the price of nickel fell by 61%. And the post-crisis tungsten market price recovery momentum is also stronger than other metals. For example, the recent supply of Rotterdam warehouses in the strategic metal market in London, the price of paratungstic acid ammonia (APT) has risen to 430-435 US dollars per metric ton, up 30.3% from the beginning of last year, and 1.32 times more than during the 2009 financial crisis. In contrast, the other three metals have rebounded since 2010, but they are still significantly lower than pre-crisis levels. The recent molybdenum market price was $14.8 per pound, which was only 30.9% higher than in 2009, but still below 51% in 2007. Statistics show that from 1998 to 2008 global global tungsten production increased from 35,650 tons to 56,500 tons, an average annual increase of 4.7%. Despite the sharp drop in demand caused by the financial crisis in 2009, production has increased to 61,500 tons. Almost all of this growth came from China, with an increase of 7,500 tons. The main reason is that although the world economy is facing difficulties, China's demand is still growing strongly. Moreover, due to the continuous growth of production in China, the global production in 2010 has continued to expand to nearly 70,000 tons. However, from the historical experience, global tungsten production is difficult to meet the needs of the market, and it is also necessary to make up for the supply of stocks. The former Soviet Union was once the world's largest tungsten reserve country, but the current reserves have been exhausted. At the same time, the US national defense strategic reserve tungsten has also declined at a rate of about 2,000 to 3,000 tons per year in recent years. The global economic recession caused by the US credit crisis in 2009 also caused delays and even cancellations of new tungsten production and expansion projects in many countries, most of which were delayed for at least 12-18 months. However, in 2011, as the credit crisis tended to ease, and many projects resumed construction, especially as some projects have been completed and put into production, production has continued to rise. It is expected that most of the new construction projects will be completed and put into operation during the period from 2013 to 2015. However, this timetable may still be postponed, which means that the mass production of new and expanded tungsten projects will be postponed until 2014~2016. To this end, Roskil expects that world tungsten production will continue to increase from 72,000 tons in 2011 to 100,000 tons in 2016. Despite the impact of the European debt crisis, the price of paratungstic acid ammonia fluctuated last year, but from the beginning of the year, it still rose from 330-340 US dollars per metric ton at the beginning of the year to 420-425 US dollars at the end of the year, of which the highest price last year was 460~480 dollars in summer. And the average price for the whole year is also 1.2 times higher than 2010, reaching $430 per metric ton. Since 2012, it has been firmer and has reached 430~435 US dollars per metric ton. Looking forward to 2012, in view of the fact that the number of new construction and expansion projects will not increase significantly, and the market still needs existing equipment production to meet the increase in demand, it is estimated that supply and demand in the tungsten market will remain tight this year, and the corresponding APT average price may rise further. To $475 per metric ton. Only when a large number of newly built and expanded tungsten projects are completed and put into production between 2013 and 2015 will it be possible to cause the market to turn from a deficit to a surplus, which will lead to a weaker price.
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