Copper (TRILAND Weekly Review) Market commentary Three-month copper prices hit new highs last week. Prices fought a few times near $3,600. Normal fund buying continued to occur, although at the same time, some people continue to claim that prices will appear immediately. Crashing fall. Some elements of the game have been speculative, and LME inventory shows that the invoicing order rose as metal was handed into the warehouse. Some consumers were disappointed because their product sales had dropped sharply because the price was higher. The higher the price, their short-term preserving value has been pressured by rising prices and futures premiums, and the accompanying marginalization has made their fate even more tragic. From their fundamental point of view, they believe that prices are the only reason for the decline. Outside China, demand levels are undoubtedly declining. Copper pipe demand in Europe fell by 20% year-on-year, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan fell by 7% and 10%. % Between US shipments of copper products fell by 8% in April, although demand for copper products will show a turnaround again after August, and if Asarco strikes continue, some shortages may develop. August 12 When the Japanese management of Asarco and the union meet again, the Mexican group will start a one-day sympathy strike to support the strike of ASARCO workers. China's demand remains stable, and imports of refined copper mines rose in June. 28%, China's refined copper output has expanded by 19.3%. It is not difficult to find the reasons for the market decline, and it fell sharply? You can almost hear what I said about your market resonate, but the market's reversal is difficult to confirm. , Although does not mean that the market will not rise again. Sometimes the price itself is a good guide? Technically, $3700 is still a reasonable goal. Technical analysis LME three-month copper price The price crossing 3550 still seems likely to be the end of the broad bull market cycle starting from $1,350 in November 2001. It is important to note, however, that no major top can be confirmed unless the important support level falls 3180/90. The price rise was closer to one time in October 2004. Since then, the price has started to drastically decline. The front signal of this kind of transfer will be the price closing below $3,500, after which the price should be tested again and then fall. Breaking 3180, confirming that the mid-term top has been formed, but once the price falls to the second key support level 2955 to ensure that the cyclical top has been confirmed. Technical strategy: After covering the short position above 3550, the exit is currently waiting to see. Market commentary prices reached $1900 during the three-month period due to continued fund buying and the US dollar's renewed weakness. At the same time premiums continued to expand to $24, which can be partially explained by the move of large funds. China's alumina tax rate Changes will soon be digested by the market, although the Chinese authorities did not give a broad promise. This expectation did not prevent Zhangjiang Aluminum from beginning Turning to its smelter, its annual production rate can reach 70,000 tons per year. The situation in North America tends to turn for the better, and car sales have rebounded in the fierce price competition. Canada's Noranda Company has increased the price of die aluminum and grain aluminum by 4 cents. Technically, the market is still good. Under the condition of holding $1880, there may be an opportunity to increase to $1920/25. Copper prices are still a strong positive influence. The market is already relatively calm (but very strong). There may be drastic fluctuations, which will affect the price of aluminum. Norsk Hydro expects that aluminum prices may fluctuate in the range of $1700-$1800 in the second half of 2005, meaning that a significant drop will occur soon. Technical Analysis LME Three The monthly price is closer to the short-term trend is positive, but the bottoming work is still relatively limited before this wave of rise, technical research shows that the mild rise beyond the current resistance is unlikely to 1890/00. Once to 1725/ 50 short-selling will look ahead, if the price can rise again, but the expected price will appear at the top, at least after the sharp rise in the past few weeks Consolidation. The previous low of 1675 is still unattainable if some necessary consolidation is necessary before the price rises again. Although the previous high of 2020-1675's fall seems to have stimulated the rebound impulse of the previous weeks, it seems that It is also part of an important revision. The major selloff has already occurred near the current resistance level around 1900, and the resistance may extend to 1950. Technical Strategy: Hold short position from 1895, established in 1955 Protection above.