The top pressure is still slightly stable

• Weekly market rebar: week K line shows that the main thread contract RB1310 closed with a small Yangxian with a long upper and lower hatch. Last week's opening price was 3630 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3674 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3587 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3639 yuan/ton, which was 60 yuan/ton higher than the previous week, a decrease of 1.68%; last week's trading volume was 15,571,536 lots; Positions 1,592,226 hands.

• Industry data and news 1. The National Bureau of Statistics data show that in April 2013, the national consumer price level rose by 2.4% year-on-year. From January to April, the national consumer price level rose by 2.4% over the same period of last year. In April, the nation’s overall consumer price index rose by 0.2%. In April 2013, the factory price of industrial producers nationwide fell by 2.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.6% from the previous month. From January to April, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers fell by 2.0% year-on-year, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year.

2. The Central Bank recently issued the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the first quarter of 2013. The report shows that the central bank will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, enhance policy foresight, pertinence, and flexibility, and overall consider stabilizing growth, controlling inflation, preventing risks, and grasping the key points, strengths, and pace of monetary policy control. Comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools such as quantity and price to improve the macro-prudential policy framework, guide the stable and moderate growth of money and credit and social security, maintain the stability of the monetary environment, optimize the allocation of credit resources, and focus on improving financial services to the real economy. Maintaining a stable overall price level, further strengthening the role of market control through deepening reforms, improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, effectively preventing systemic financial risks, and promoting sustainable and healthy economic development.

3. The Central Bank announced that financial statistics for April showed that at the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 103.26 trillion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year, 0.4 and 3.3 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of last year; narrowly defined currency (M1) The balance of 30.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, was 0.1 and 8.8 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period last year. In the same month, the increase in the number of ************************************************************** January-April ***** increased 3.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 405.6 billion yuan year-on-year.

4. According to the data released by the China Railway Corporation on the 7th, the national railway freight volume for the first four months of 2013 was 130.169 million tons, a decrease of 30.79 million tons year-on-year, which was a decrease of 2.3%, and the rate of decline was 1.5 percentage points higher than that in the first three months. Based on this calculation, in the month of April, the national rail freight volume was 31.095 million tons, which was a decrease of 18.37 million tons year-on-year and a decrease of 5.6%.

5. According to customs statistics, in April 2013, China’s imports of steel (3650,-4.00,-0.11%) were 1.26 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous period, and the average daily growth was 5.9%, an increase of 140,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 12.5 %; steel exports were 5.55 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons, the average daily increase of 8.6%, an increase of 890,000 tons, an increase of 19.1%; billets imported 40,000 tons, exports of 0, continue to remain low. The net export volume of crude steel for conversion was 4.52 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons compared with the previous period, and an average daily increase of 9.8% from the previous period; an increase of 780,000 tons, an increase of 20.8%.

• In terms of fundamentals reading the spot market, the Myspic composite index remained weak last week at 132.83 points, down 0.63% from the previous week. The sustained economic recovery is under pressure, the market volume is always poor, steel mills are still operating at full capacity, and the steel market under multiple pressures continues to look for the bottom. Last week, the domestic steel spot market continued to show a general decline. The price of each major species fell to varying degrees, among which wire materials (0, -3750.00, -100.00%) had a weekly decline of 1.56%. As of last Friday, the average prices of the 6.5mmQ235 high-line and 25mm HRB400 rebar in 28 major cities in China were 3640 yuan/ton and 3681 yuan/ton, respectively, down 6 yuan/ton and 2 yuan/ton from the previous week.

In terms of inventory, the current national rebar inventory in major cities is 9,143,400 tons. Compared with the previous week (2013-5-3), the national inventory of rebars fell by 255,900 tons last week, a decrease of 2.72%, and the decline was larger than the previous week; Compared with the same period of last year (2012-5-11), the increase was 1.8571 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.49%, and the year-on-year increase narrowed.

In respect of raw materials, domestic iron ore prices fell steadily in the past week; imported iron ore basically stopped falling, remained stable after a slight increase in the first half of the week, the volume of external disks increased slightly, and the total volume of port resources increased, but trade resources increased. Not much volume, market transactions in general. Most of the steel mills are still not optimistic about the recent market, but at the same time also think that there is little room for price fall. For raw material procurement, some steel mills added some resources last week and will wait and see this week. It is expected that the domestic iron ore price will change this week. Little, imported iron ore may drop slightly.

• PPI data and manufacturing PMI data recently announced by this week's trend forecast show that China's economic stabilization trend is not strong, while the continued gloomy price of steel, high crude steel production, and turbulent raw material prices make rebar The period price continues to be under pressure. Baosteel introduced the ex-factory price of steel products in June, and lowered the main varieties of hot-rolled products by 100-180 yuan/ton. It is expected that the rebar 1310 contract will continue to operate in a weak pattern in the short term and focus on the rebound rate. If we can effectively stabilize the 3650, we can continue to follow up.