Abstract Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of private investment has declined for many consecutive months. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 13th, from January to May, private fixed assets investment was 1,163.8 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points from January to April...
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of private investment has declined for many consecutive months. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 13th, from January to May, private fixed assets investment was 1,163.8 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points from January to April.
Private fixed assets investment accounted for 62.0% of the country's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers), down 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year.
Private investment continues to fall back <br> National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Laiyun said that the growth rate of private investment has declined, indicating that the endogenous power of the economy needs to be strengthened. One reason for the decline is that the ex-factory prices of industrial products have continued to decline in recent years, especially in the part of industries with excess capacity, the growth rate of corporate profits has dropped sharply, which has affected the enthusiasm of investment to some extent.
"The most important thing is that the economic situation is not very good." Peng Yu, executive vice president of the Guangzhou Private Economic Development Research Association, analyzed the first financial analysis. Private enterprises invest in their own money and must consider the profit and return of the project. In the case of a large downward pressure on the economy, investment should be much more cautious. “Recently, the boss of the design industry around me said that many industries have been affected by the downturn. Some senior talents who came back from abroad are very popular. It is not easy to find a job now, because the project is much less.â€
"I can't make any money, you still ask him to vote, how is this possible!" Peng Yu said that if there are good projects, everyone is still willing to vote, the key is that it is difficult to find promising projects.
On the other hand, the decline in growth rate is also related to the inadequacy of certain industries. Sheng Laiyun said that the State Council sent nine supervision teams and also specially held a press conference to talk about the problems found in the investigation. Some areas have not released enough private capital to enter the market. There are still many "spring gates." ", "Glass Door", which limits the entry of some private capital to a certain extent.
Sheng Laiyun said that among the problems found in the report of the supervision team, private capital does have the phenomenon of difficult loans and expensive loans. Although the two years have been positively improved under the government's efforts, they are still not sufficiently loose. These aspects have affected the enthusiasm of private capital investment.
He said that at present all levels of government have realized the importance and urgency of this issue. Some time ago, nine supervision teams were sent to supervise and inspect 18 provinces and cities nationwide. "I believe that through this inspection, especially the relevant issues, the relevant departments will further improve the management of private investment, including the formulation of relevant supporting policies and measures. With the joint efforts of all, private capital will change this continuation. The downward trend."
Rapid rise in housing prices is not conducive to private investment
In terms of regions, the investment in private fixed assets in the eastern region was 559.33 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in the first four months. The central region was 341.175 billion yuan, up 5.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.1 percentage points. 2,410.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0%, the growth rate dropped by 0.9 percentage points; the Northeast region was 487.6 billion yuan, down 29.3%, a decrease of 6.2 percentage points.
It is worth noting that the growth rate of investment in the central and western regions was 2.1 and 1.7 percentage points higher than that in the east, respectively. However, the growth rate of private investment in the eastern region was the highest in the four regions, which was 2.3 percentage points higher than the central region and 6 percentage points higher than the western region. It is 37.3 percentage points higher than the Northeast. More critically, while the growth rate of private investment in the east has increased slightly, the growth rate of private investment in the other three regions has dropped significantly.
The growth rate of private investment in the east is higher, which is related to the higher degree of marketization in the east and the adjustment of the transformation and upgrading structure. In May, Zhuo Yongliang, vice president of the Zhejiang Provincial Reform Research Association, wrote that the economic growth in the central and western regions is more driven by state-owned investment, while the eastern part is more dependent on civilian power.
However, even so, it cannot be too optimistic about the growth rate of private investment in the eastern coastal areas. This is because the growth rate of private investment in the east is relatively fast, which is related to the hot property market this year. In particular, the current hot cities in the property market are mainly concentrated in the first- and second-tier cities along the eastern coast, and a large amount of capital flows to the real estate investment field.
Taking Guangdong, the largest economy in the economy, as an example, from January to April, Guangdong real estate development enterprises completed a total investment of 247.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the first quarter and 5 percentage points higher than fixed assets investment. . In recent years, nearly half of Guangdong's private investment has concentrated on real estate.
On the one hand, the profits of the real economy are becoming increasingly meager. On the other hand, since the end of last year, the prices of first-tier cities and second-tier core cities such as Nanjing, Suzhou, Xiamen and Hefei have risen rapidly. This situation has also prompted more private capital to flow into the real estate sector.
“A lot of entrepreneurs are going to buy a house. It’s so hard to do business, but if you buy a house there, you won’t do it. If you have a lot of appreciation in half a year, how many people will try to do business?†Peng Yu said, like the east, Although the surface of private investment is very active, the field and motivation of investment have changed a lot, and the funds are further “de-realisticâ€, which has great hidden dangers.
It is worth noting that from the two curves of private fixed asset investment growth rate and national fixed asset investment growth rate, before December last year, the two lines basically matched, but the two lines began to differentiate, and private investment grew rapidly. Sliding down. By May of this year, the growth rate of private investment was 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the whole society. In the past six months, it has happened to be a period of rapid rise in housing prices in first-tier cities and second-tier core cities.
Peng Yu said that the rapid rise of the property market has ostensibly supported economic development, but the excessive rise in housing prices may in turn weaken other growth drivers. For example, housing prices are too high, which in turn increases the cost of industrial and commercial operations, and may further reduce the enthusiasm of private investment.
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