Abstract On November 16, 2012, Suntech Power, a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, closed at $0.77. If the stock price cannot be traded for more than US$1 for 30 days before March next year, Suntech will bid farewell to the NYSE. Since August, Suntech has played twice...
On November 16, 2012, Suntech Power, a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, closed at $0.77. If the stock price cannot be traded for more than US$1 for 30 days before March next year, Suntech will bid farewell to the NYSE.
Since August, Suntech has started the "1 dollar defending war" twice, each time only lasting a few days above the "life and death line", and the strength of the attack is getting weaker and weaker. After the global solar counter-guarantee fraud incident was exposed, the US American New Group’s valuation of Suntech was 0 cents! If there is no accident, the delisting is already a nail. On the same day, Jiangxi Saiwei closed at 0.91 US dollars, Yingli Green Energy closed at 1.39 US dollars, and Trina Solar closed at 2.32 US dollars. The total market capitalization of Suntech, Yingli and Tianhe listed companies was only 521 million US dollars, and the total liabilities reached 8.884 billion US dollars (as of the first quarter of 2012). It is no wonder that domestic and foreign investment bank analysts generally believe that Chinese PV companies are on the verge of bankruptcy.
Even more terrifying is the technological advancement. Today's international photovoltaic field star GT advanced technology company will launch a new large-scale crystalline silicon manufacturing technology next year. The new process is expected to reduce costs by 40% and increase power generation by 40%, which means that the photovoltaic power generated per unit of currency will more than double!
It’s really a dream of ten years, and China’s photovoltaic industry has invested hundreds of billions of dollars to buy technology, buy equipment, circle land, pollute the environment, and even the money has not come to earn back. In the first quarter of 2012, the top ten PV companies had total liabilities of more than 100 billion yuan. Financial institutions are also deeply involved. In particular, CDB has only granted a total of 245 billion yuan in credit lines to Jiangxi Saiwei, Trina Solar, and Yingli Green Energy.
In the fiery years of the concept of photovoltaics, local governments have boldly drawn out “new energy industrial zones†to attract enterprises to settle in with tax incentives, electricity security, and even zero land prices, and build a 100 billion-level industrial cluster. Crystalline silicon manufacturing is a big power consumer, while 78% of China's electricity comes from thermal power. In other words, while contributing to the green and environmental protection of European and American countries, we are polluting our own environment, consuming our own coal resources, and being investigated by the world for “anti-dumping†and “counter-subsidyâ€.
There are no four major reasons for the Chinese PV Corps to cover the entire military: facing the European and American markets, raw materials are difficult to self-sufficient, demand is non-rigid, and there is no core technology. The first two reasons are combined and called "two heads out."
Let me talk about the market first. How much money the European governments subsidize each year depends on the economic situation of their own countries, and financial difficulties are less or no subsidies. It has nothing to do with our supply. It’s like a person planning to spend 2 bucks to eat breakfast, you give him two buns, even one dollar; he plans to spend two four, you give him three buns, even eight cents; he said that there is only one dollar, you stuff Four buns were given to him, so I had to count two and five. As a result, we saw that Suntech’s sales revenues kept rising and profits continued to fall. In 2007, Suntech shipped 358 megawatts and earned a net profit of $143 million. In 2011, its production capacity and shipments reached 2,400 megawatts and 2015 megawatts, respectively, and the loss exceeded $1 billion.
Looking at polysilicon, international giants have high quality, low energy consumption and low cost (the cost of solar grade products is about $30/kg). With the pace of capacity expansion of Chinese companies, they have pushed prices up to more than $400 per kilogram. As a result, the Chinese began to “alcheming†and invested billions of polysilicon projects everywhere. According to the boss's thoughts, "I even earned if I cost $200 to sell for $400." As a result, with the gradual formation of China's production capacity, coupled with the sluggish European PV market, international companies that had earned a lot of money began to maliciously suppress prices. In the first half of 2012, polysilicon prices fell below US$25.
In 2008, the ambitious Miao Liansheng launched the “Jiusix Silicon Industry†project with a total investment of 12 billion yuan. Known as "the use of the new silane process, greatly reducing energy consumption and pollution", the cost per kilogram can be reduced to 22 US dollars after production! Yingli executives also announced that the production capacity of Liujiu Silicon will reach 18,000 tons in 2013. The words of the beautiful world are endless. When the first phase of the 3,000-ton production line was put into production, it was found that the cost was as high as $60 to $70 per kilogram, and the equipment was in constant condition, with a maximum output of several tens of tons per quarter. In the fiscal year of 2011, Yingli had to accumulate 2.275 billion yuan of “preparation for impairment†(equivalent to the amount of investment in the first phase), and declared the project to fail completely.
In addition to the two ends, Chinese PV companies have two dead spots: demand is non-rigid and there is no core technology. Photovoltaic cells are not necessities like ore, grain, and oil, and their markets are completely subsidized by governments. Chinese PV companies are hanging in such a tree, can fate not be terrible? The loss of no core technology is also reflected in the previous description.
Then, from the annihilation of the Chinese PV Corps, what do we have to reflect on? Some areas can't get involved, some money can't be earned! In the words of Confucius, it is: "The state is not in danger, the chaos is not living, and the gentleman is inferior." It is like a girl looking for an object, not to mention Gao Fushuai, always have to find a healthy body and a legitimate income?
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