September 2009 Macroeconomic Monthly: August data dissipated and recovered

The overall data is slightly better than expected. Industrial growth, investment growth and new loans that the market is worried about are better than expected. Self-investment seems to follow suit. The growth rate has been rising since the beginning of the year, and the growth rate of non-government investment has increased significantly in August compared with July. Consumer demand has risen steadily, and consumption upgrades are the main factor driving consumption acceleration. Although the export is lower than expected, the recovery trend does not change. Under the strong domestic demand, output growth has accelerated. After the seasonal adjustment, the industrial growth rate in August increased by 1.2%, and the annual growth rate was about 15%.
The recovery trend is further confirmed. We have pointed out that the July growth is lower than expected does not change the recovery trend, and the August data supports our judgment. The trend of economic recovery is expected to continue. First, non-government-led investments will gradually follow. Second, in the context of the global economic recovery, the trend of external demand recovery can be expected. Third, in the context of consumption upgrading and employment recovery, consumption growth will continue to maintain a steady upward trend. Of course, future economic data may fluctuate, but the trend of economic recovery will not change. There are fluctuations in the economic recovery process, and the expectations for the future may not be reasonable based on the peak or trough data.
Crossing the inflection point, inflation has entered a rising channel. Both CPI and PPI rose in August, indicating that the economy has already bid farewell to deflation, which confirms our previous views. Starting in August, the price index (whether PPI or CPI) will enter the rising channel, CPI will turn positive in October or November, and PPI may turn positive during the year. The recent north-south drought may be the trend of rising food prices. We expect inflation to be between 2-3% in 2010, which is 2.7% for CPI and around 3% for PPI.
Credit normalization and currency monetization. New credits returned to normal levels, and general loan replacement bills accelerated. The average monthly new loan of around 400 billion in the rest of 2009 is a relatively normal level. Monetary growth, Ml growth rate increased significantly, indicating that the economic boom continues to rise.
The tone of the monetary policy in 2010 may gradually shift to neutral, and China will transfer to the interest rate hike cycle in 2010. We estimate that the new loans in 2010 will be around 7 trillion, that is, the loan growth rate will be around 17%.

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