For most of this year, the renminbi has appreciated unilaterally against the US dollar, but since mid-November, the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar has depreciated by about 0.55%. Although the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar has risen more than 200 basis points last week, the mid-price stagnation has failed to change the continued sluggishness of the renminbi spot exchange rate. Following the three-day “down limit†of the RMB-to-dollar spot market exchange rate last week, the RMB spot market hit the lower limit of the mid-price volatility announced by the central bank, and the market opened again. After the first negative growth in domestic foreign exchange in October, the expectation of RMB depreciation caused by hot money outflows has become more intense. However, experts generally believe that it is too early for the qualitative RMB to enter the depreciation channel. The oscillation and moderate appreciation are still the “main theme†of the future trend of the RMB. . The RMB continued to weaken. Yesterday, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar continued to weaken. It hit the limit line several times in the session. The weakening of the euro overnight dragged the RMB middle price lower, and the current exchange rate followed the decline. Yesterday, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was 6.3349, compared with 6.3310 on Friday. The RMB finally closed at 6.3641 in the inquiry trading system, which was 6.3597 in the previous trading day. Calculated according to the fluctuation range of five thousandths of the middle price, 6.3666 is the lower limit of the RMB trading range yesterday. The spot exchange rate has dropped several times to the down limit, and this kind of down limit has appeared continuously last week. However, compared with the spot exchange rate trend, the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar has almost gone out of the opposite trend. Last Friday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.3310, which was 43 basis points higher than the previous trading day. On the previous two days, the central parity of the RMB rose by 129 basis points and 105 basis points respectively, which is a strong rebound. Forex traders believe that although the mid-price support signal is obvious, the spot exchange rate that is “suppressed†by the market continues to weaken. Compared with the higher median price, there is a downtrend trend, which is behind the current strong demand for foreign exchange purchases by investors. Expectations of the depreciation of the renminbi have increased. In September, there was also a wave of decline. In fact, similar exchange rate movements appeared in September this year. In the same month, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar showed a rapid rise, but the spot exchange rate also frequently suffered a down limit. "This is a signal that the renminbi has been seen." Some foreign exchange traders said that from late September to early November, the overseas non-deliverable forward foreign exchange market also had a depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. Among them, the October NDF offer shows that the overseas expectation of RMB depreciation of 0.43% in one year is the first time since April 2009. Corresponding to this trend, the September data showed that China's foreign exchange reserves fell by a net monthly decrease of US$60.8 billion, the first time in 16 months; in October, foreign exchange holdings also fell for the first time in four years. However, the industry generally expects that foreign exchange holdings in November will continue to be low. The growth rate of China's exports in October also continued to be sluggish. The trade surplus of the month was 17.033 billion US dollars, far below market expectations. A series of data shows that under the realistic pressure that the European debt crisis cannot be resolved in the short term, investors' demand for safe havens is stronger. Some funds flow from emerging economies to mature markets, and the willingness to purchase US dollars will increase, which will undoubtedly suppress the formation of the renminbi. In addition, the recent “short-selling of China†by foreign capital is also an important reason for the renminbi to be seen. Traders revealed yesterday that there are indeed many foreign-funded institutions that are betting on the devaluation of the renminbi, and the scale and intensity of shorting are large. The "depreciation channel" did not open the renminbi against the US dollar spot exchange rate continuously hit the down limit, so that the renminbi has been re-introduced into the "depreciation channel" debate, but analysts generally believe that it is too early to conclude this conclusion. Wang Rongji, deputy director of the Securities Research Institute of Fudan University, pointed out in an interview that the reason for the weakening or even slight depreciation of the appreciation of the renminbi is mainly due to the deterioration of China’s net export situation and the return of some foreign investment in China. The country’s self-help and the fall in real estate prices in China have caused some of the foreign speculative capital invested in it to flow out. It is not surprising that the renminbi has experienced a phased decline after a sustained and rapid appreciation in recent years, but it is too early to conclude that the renminbi will embark on a long-term depreciation. Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC, also said that the recent exchange rate movement also indicates that the appreciation of the renminbi will definitely slow down. The first is the end of anti-inflation. The appreciation of the renminbi in the past year is consistent with the anti-inflation policy. After the policy is adjusted to maintain growth, if the renminbi continues to appreciate, it will be contrary to policy guidance. In addition, China's trade has entered a basic equilibrium after years of adjustment. The total net export volume accounts for about 2%-3% of GDP. This trend of lower trade surplus will continue, and now there is no more. The pressure of substantial appreciation.
Pull Out Kitchen Faucet,Pull Out Sink Faucet,Brass Kitchen Mixer,Chrome Pull Out Kitchen Faucet
kaiping aida sanitary ware technology co.,ltd , https://www.aidafaucet.com