Photovoltaic industry meets the cold winter strategy emerging industry can not "fast-moving"

"The collection of anti-subsidy anti-dumping punitive tariffs, even if a penny on Chinese companies will be a catastrophe," said Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Association. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of global photovoltaic products have fallen fiercely, and they have encountered “double reverse” lawsuits on European debt and US anti-dumping and anti-subsidy laws. As a result, nearly 90% of Chinese PV companies that sell overseas have become more difficult.

Exports have shrunk, and the total number of installed photovoltaic power plants for individual small and medium PV companies accounted for nearly 66.5% of the world last year. Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic began to adjust their subsidies in the first half of the year. In February, Germany announced that the mid-2011 on-grid tariff reduction will be determined based on the annual installed capacity from March to May of this year. When the installed capacity exceeds 3.5 GW (gigawatts), the installed capacity will increase by 1 GW, and the PV subsidies will be adjusted downwards. 3%; In June, Italy introduced a new photovoltaic policy, and the original on-grid tariff subsidies will be further reduced by 4% to 11%. From June on-grid tariffs will be adjusted monthly, and it is expected that by the end of 2011, on-grid tariff subsidies will be implemented. Declined by 26% to 42%; the Czech Republic announced that it plans to increase the amount of taxes and fees for the already-built PV power plants by 26% from 2011 onwards. European demand therefore began to shrink.

“The company’s conservative estimate for European orders this year has fallen by 50%. At present, we mainly rely on the domestic market to maintain. The national Golden Sun demonstration projects in Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Gansu can do, but the profits are very low.” The products have been exported to Guangxi in the European market. Dikai Technology Co., Ltd. Photovoltaic Division Manager Wang Yi said. In fact, many small and medium-sized PV companies like Dikai have fallen in the winter. With the shrinking global PV demand, the overcapacity in the domestic PV industry is an indisputable fact.

In response to the shrinking demand in the European market, companies have chosen to change their strategy to open up new markets in North America and Southeast Asia. On October 19th, seven US solar cell manufacturers filed applications with the US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission. The U.S. government is required to conduct anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on solar photovoltaic cells and components that China exports to the United States and adopt trade restrictions.

Li Junfeng believes that the US “photovoltaic companies” proposed “anti-dumping and countervailing” lawsuits against Chinese PV companies in order to seize the market and seek to squeeze Chinese PV companies out of the US market. “Once the US lawsuit is successful, the European Union will certainly follow suit. The US market is in short supply. But the share of China’s PV products exported to the EU is 70%. This is the most terrible thing,” said Li Junfeng.

Blindly launched, overcapacity is more than doubled. In fact, in addition to the influence of overseas markets, China's photovoltaic companies have developed in a “flock” manner, which is also an important reason for the advent of the winter period.

Taking Zhejiang as an example, the province has a total of 205 photovoltaic companies, of which 110 were established after September 2010 and all have a scale of less than 100 MW. More and more influxes will inevitably lead to increased competition. As of now, the domestic industry's profit margin has fallen from 139% to 20%. Many small businesses have closed down or have stopped production. Some of the earlier planned projects have also been forced to slow down.

The Heyuan project, with a total investment of about RMB 1.1 billion, was originally scheduled to be put into trial operation on December 16. However, due to the influence of the environment, the entire project is currently slowing down. An insider of the CSG Group told reporters: “When it comes time to return to work depends on the market conditions. When the industry is in a sluggish state, blindly expanding production capacity is not good for the company.”

An executive of GCL-Poly told reporters: “At present, there is more than one time oversupply, the global market demand is about 20GW, and the production capacity is 40GW to 50GW, and the excess 20GW can only be eliminated.” For profit, blindly, not to In the long run, it has always been a hidden danger in the photovoltaic industry. The European debt crisis has accelerated its outbreak.

The performance of domestic photovoltaic concept listed companies generally fell Under multiple pressures, the prices of imported polysilicon decreased by 27% in October and the price of modules decreased by 20%. As a result, the three-quarter performance of domestic photovoltaic concept listed companies has generally declined. According to the three quarterly reports released recently, as of the end of last month, a total of 24 Chinese photovoltaic power generation concept stocks disclosed three quarterly reports, and their performance decreased by 8 compared to the same period of last year, and the number fell from the previous quarter to 16 and accounted for about 70% of the disclosed number. .

Taking Tecsun New Energy as an example, from the second quarter of this year, the prices of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) photovoltaic cells and modules have dropped significantly, and the gross profit rate of products has continued to decline. In the first three quarters, the company realized operating income of 37,768,500 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%, and a total loss of 39,411,700 yuan from January to September. In the third quarter, it achieved a revenue of 12,151.34 million yuan in a single quarter and a loss of 47,641,100 yuan in a single quarter.

Industry insiders predict that due to the impact of the European debt crisis and the sluggish US economy and international economic situation, component prices are expected to decline in the fourth quarter, profitability of battery and component manufacturers in the midstream of photovoltaics will further decline, and the industrial downturn in the fourth quarter will be difficult to recover quickly. .

According to Cui Rongqiang, director of the Shanghai Solar Energy Society and director of the Shanghai Institute of Solar Energy Solar Energy Research Institute, domestic listed companies are required to use international legal and resource advantages. But the most important thing is to start the domestic market. It is undeniable that the introduction of the on-grid tariff in September to a certain extent promoted the start-up of the domestic photovoltaic market. Some companies have accelerated the construction of power stations in order to catch up with the high on-grid tariffs at the end of this year, resulting in a slight increase in domestic orders, but this is relatively As for the huge productivity of domestic photovoltaic products, it is still a drop in the bucket. For quite some time, overseas markets such as Europe will continue to be the main battlefield for domestic photovoltaic companies. (Han Ying)

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Strategic Emerging Industries Can't "Do It Fast"

The just-started photovoltaic industry suddenly faced a “winter” of overcapacity and low-price competition, reflecting the deep-seated puzzles of the development of strategic emerging industries: Many companies did not have a clear profit model and fell into a low level, relying on concepts and relying on policies. Repeated construction of the mud pit can not extricate themselves.

The conditions for the development of new industries have a certain degree of particularity. In the area of ​​technological breakthroughs, new industries must be resilient. After 10 years of grinding, it is very difficult to “carry over”. However, some localities have planned for industrial development out of market demand and are keen to engage in large-scale projects, large-scale introductions, and large-scale investments. As a result, companies are getting together and their production capacity is rapidly expanding. In just a few years, China's photovoltaic product production capacity was actually a serious surplus, which is the result of this kind of “fast-moving”. In the context of shrinking demand and the failure of product quality, new industries must be caught in the mud of low-price competition. Sit down calmly to study the market and find the profit model that suits you. Perhaps it is the top priority for domestic PV companies to “winter”.