Since China officially approved the commercial production of transgenic insect-resistant cotton in 1997, the planting scale of transgenic insect-resistant cotton has gradually expanded. In addition, at the end of last year, the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China issued two kinds of genetically modified rice safety certificates. Currently, the commercialization of transgenic rice is planted in Hubei. Such places have been quietly carried out. Therefore, in the future, the scale of planting of GM crops will increase year by year.
Zhong Jianzhi, a researcher in the chemical industry of China Investment Advisors, believes that in the long run, the commercialization of Bt genetically modified crops will have little impact on the pesticide industry. First of all, the transgenic technology is mainly aimed at pests, and the transgenic technology is very targeted, only for a specific pest, has no effect on other pests. Second, because organisms are highly adaptable to the environment, target pests will gradually become resistant to transgenic crops and evolve to adapt to genetically modified crops. Again, if GM crops can completely suppress the occurrence of target pests, other pest species may also accelerate reproduction and produce more pests due to less competition.
According to the "Investment Analysis and Forecast Report of China's Pesticide Market 2010-2015" released by the China Investment Advisor, scientists from China and the United States have conducted long-term follow-up surveys for 481 cotton farmers in China for 7 years. The results of the study show that these farmers are The economic benefits of the third year of planting genetically modified cotton (information, market) are the greatest. Their average pesticide dosage is 70% lower than that of ordinary cotton farmers, and their income is 36% higher. However, the situation reversed from the fourth year. Although GM cotton inhibited the bollworm, it could not kill other pests such as aphid, which led to blind moth infestation of the cotton field. The use of insecticides in GM cotton growers that year increased input costs three times higher than that of ordinary cotton growers, and their income was 8% lower. By the 7th year, the pesticides used by GM cotton growers have been significantly higher than ordinary cotton growers.
In the earlier period, Monsanto also admitted that India's GM cotton has failed. Because genetically modified cotton grown in India produces antibodies to insect-resistant proteins due to pests, there is almost nothing to be done. According to relevant news, during the field monitoring of transgenic cotton in India in 2009, the Bt cotton varieties planted in four regions of India, namely, Areri Amreli, Bhagnagar Bhavnagar, Junagar Junagarh and Rajkot Rajkot were found. It attracts the pink bollworm, which is the main pest that hits the cotton field and has produced antibodies against the protein.
In addition, the report of the British Institute of Science and Society (ISIS) on January 18, 2010 also stated that the cultivation of GM crops in the United States increased the amount of agricultural pesticides in the United States by 383 million pounds from 1996 to 2008. Since 2006, the three major GM crops that have been commercialized, corn (information, quotation), soybeans (information, quotation), and cotton, have all continuously increased in pesticide use, and have greatly exceeded the pesticide application requirements of natural crops.
Chang Zhizhi pointed out that these actual cases and data can tell that although GM crops can effectively control pests in a short period of time, long-term planting will not only lead to the plague of other pests, but also make the pests resistant to insects and thus increase their resistance. Demand for pesticides. Therefore, the promotion of genetically modified crops can only change the demand for insecticides, and the overall demand for pesticides will not be greatly reduced, and may even increase.
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