Abstract On the morning of September 14, 2016, during the International Manufacturing Technology Exhibition (IMTS2016) in Chicago, the China Machine Tool Industry Association held a press release at the McCormickPlace News Center on the show floor...
On the morning of September 14, 2016, during the Chicago International Manufacturing Technology Exhibition (IMTS2016), the China Machine Tool Industry Association held a press conference at the McCormickPlace News Center. The meeting was chaired by Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of the Machine Tool Association. Mr. Yao Jun, deputy general manager of China International Exhibition Center and Mr. Wang Liming, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Industry Association attended the conference. At the press conference, Chen Huiren briefly introduced China's macroeconomic situation, the machine tool consumption market and the preparations for CIMT2017. Mr. Wu De, President of the American Manufacturing Technology Association (AMT), and representatives from domestic and foreign industry organizations, manufacturers, distributors and professional media reporters attended the conference. 
The upcoming CIMT 2017 exhibition in Beijing has identified the theme as “New Demand, New Supply, and New Powerâ€. Around this theme, we will organize a series of special events such as information release, exhibit promotion, technical exchange, and business matching to provide support for exhibitors to develop their business. . The organizer China Machine Tool Industry Association (CMTBA) will continue to promote the professional layout of CIMT2017, focusing on the establishment of metal forming and laser processing machine tools, 3D printing exhibition area, industrial robot exhibition area and accessories and cutting tool exhibition area, etc. In the field of product technology, domestic and foreign exhibitors compete on the same stage, which is more conducive to professional visitors and buyers to visit and negotiate.
At this IMTS exhibition, more and more Chinese machine tool companies are involved. Although there are still few outstanding booths, large-area booths and top-level exhibits, they are also actively improving and internationally benchmarked. A specialized enterprise with competitive products. Director of the Machine Tool Association, Long Xingyuan, Executive Vice President and Secretary General Chen Huiren, and Executive Vice President Wang Liming visited the booths and visited the company to discuss their participation. The performance of Chinese machine tool enterprises in international exhibitions is still not exciting and exciting. Chairman of the board of directors of Beiping Machine Tool, Rong Ronghua said that in fact, the current information and communication technologies and perfect social resources can provide us with unlimited development space. The great synergy of the company is likely to rapidly improve the technological innovation capability of Chinese machine tools. In today's innovative environment, private machine tool tools should have a firm belief and responsibility, and the road is at the foot, expecting Chinese companies to have more outstanding performance in the future EMO2017 and IMTS2018.
Related reading: China Machine Tool Industry Association Press Release
Ladies and gentlemen:
good morning guys!
First of all, please allow me, on behalf of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, to express my warm welcome and heartfelt thanks to all the guests and friends from all walks of life who participated in today's press conference!
At today's press conference, we will introduce the following aspects: the new situation of China's economy, the new changes in China's machine tool consumption market and the preparations for the 15th China International Machine Tool Show (CIMT2017).
I. The new situation of the Chinese economy 1. The position of the Chinese economy in the world economy
As we all know, China has become the world's second largest economy in 2009. It has been more than seven years now, and the gross domestic product (GDP) has reached more than 10 trillion US dollars. According to data released by the World Bank, China’s GDP in 2015 was 10.9 trillion US dollars (a growth rate of 6.9%), which was 60% of the first US (2.43% growth rate) and the third Japan (0.47% growth rate). It is 2.7 times, which is 3.2 times that of the fourth Germany (1.69% growth rate) and 5.2 times that of India (7.57% growth rate). In terms of global import and export trade, China’s total import and export volume in 2015 was 3.96 trillion US dollars, accounting for 11.9% of the total global import and export trade, ranking first. In the context of the sluggish global trade situation in the first half of 2016, most of the major economies’ export trade showed double-digit negative growth, while China’s exports only declined slightly (-7.8%), accounting for the majority of world trade. The share "does not fall and rises." The above macro data shows that the Chinese economy has firmly stood on the second step of the world and has become an indispensable and important part of the world economy and trade. Although China's economic growth has slowed markedly in recent years, China, with such high economic volume and growth rate, is still the most important engine for world economic development.
2. The operating status of the Chinese economy
Affected by the worldwide financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese economy is experiencing structural adjustments. In particular, under the combined effects of weak world economic recovery, falling commodity prices, increased international trade frictions, prominent internal structural contradictions, rising factor costs and an aging population, China's economic development has entered a new normal. The external manifestation of the new normal of China's economy is characterized by the change of economic growth from high-speed to medium-high speed range, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment is declining, and consumption instead of investment has become the biggest factor contributing to GDP growth; the internal factor is the development of kinetic energy switching and Structural adjustments such as the upgrading of development models urgently need to be promoted.
In recent years, due to the continued slowdown in China's economic growth, China's industrial economic growth has also continued to decline. The growth rate of industrial added value in 2015 was 6.1%, down 9.6 percentage points from 2010. Recently, with the introduction of various measures of “steady growth and restructuring†of the Chinese government, China’s industrial economy showed a downward trend in the first half of 2016, and the effect of structural adjustment was beginning to emerge. From January to June 2016, industrial added value increased by 6% year-on-year. From the perspective of quarterly growth, the growth rate of industrial added value from the third quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016 fluctuated slightly within the range of around 6%, and the industrial growth rate tends to be stable. In terms of industrial economic structure, from January to June 2016, the mining industry grew by 0.1%, far below the industrial growth rate. In the key industries for overcapacity, raw coal production fell by 9.7% year-on-year, crude steel production fell by 1.1%, and electrolytic aluminum production fell by 1.9%. In contrast, the added value of strategic emerging industries, including energy conservation and environmental protection industries, new generation information technology, bio-industry, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy industry, new materials industry, and new energy vehicles, increased by 11% year-on-year. In general, China's economic and industrial operations have stabilized, and its volatility changes mainly reflect the consumption response of new and old kinetic energy conversion and structural upgrading to economic operations.
3. Main factors affecting the future Chinese economy
At the end of 2015, the Chinese government proposed the strategic direction of supply-side structural reform according to the new characteristics of economic development changes, and then further clarified the five key tasks of “three to one, one reduction and one supplement†that need to be implemented in the near future to realize the supply-side structural reform. That is, “to de-capacity, destocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boardingâ€. The main contents are: de-capacity, dissolving excess capacity and disposing of zombie enterprises; destocking, resolving real estate inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities; de-leveraging, reducing corporate debt ratio and leverage; reducing costs, reducing institutional transaction costs, and enterprises Unreasonable burden; make up the short board, supplement the shortcomings by increasing investment, and promote structural adjustment. On July 23, 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized at the twenty-sixth meeting of the Central Committee for the Comprehensive Deepening of Reform, "Ensuring that the reform direction is not deviated, and that the clear reform tasks are not lost." Therefore, the above reform direction and key tasks will become the main internal factors affecting the Chinese economy, machine tool consumer market and industrial operation trend in the coming period.
On the other hand, China's internationalization process is steadily advancing. For example, the new round of RMB market reform mechanism initiated in August 2015, the internationalization of the RMB is accelerating; the “Belt and Road†and “going out†strategies Steady implementation, China's foreign investment accelerated to promote deeper and more frequent interaction between domestic industries and international markets and industrial chains; China is promoting the negotiation and implementation of multiple unilateral and multilateral FTAs, the Chinese market will be more open, etc. .
"China is the world's largest developing country, the world's largest manufacturing country, a major trade in goods and services, the world's second largest consumer market, and an emerging market with great growth potential in the world. "Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at the Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin, China this year, "We are optimistic about the Chinese economy, both current and future."
Second, the new changes in China's machine tool consumption market 1, the overall situation
As mentioned above, in recent years, due to the slowdown of China's economy, investment growth and the upgrading of demand structure, the total scale of China's machine tool and tool consumer market has shown a stage of decline. The following is a description of the changes in consumption, production and imports from the two main sub-product areas of metalworking machine tools and tools.
The consumption of metalworking machine tools has experienced a three-step decline from 2015 to the highest level in 2015. The first step is the relatively high level in 2011-2012, which is 390.9 and 38.28 billion US dollars respectively; the second step is a significant decline in 2013-2014, which is 319.1 and 31.83 billion US dollars respectively; the third step is from 2015 to the present. A slight decline, machine tool consumption in 2015 was 27.5 billion US dollars, in the first half of 2016 was 12.9 billion US dollars, down 9.2%. The production trend of metal processing machine tools is similar to the change in consumption, and it basically forms a three-step decline in synchronization with consumption. In the first half of 2016, the production of metal processing machine tools was 10.4 billion US dollars, down 8.8% year-on-year. Although the import of metalworking machine tools has also declined, the third step is not obvious, mainly due to the gradual slowdown of imports in the later period. In the first half of 2016, the import value of metal processing machine tools was US$4 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year.
The Chinese tool consumer market experienced a significant decline in 2015 after experiencing a slow-changing “turtle-back†growth. In 2015, the consumption of tools was US$4.5 billion, down 12.1% year-on-year. In the first half of 2016, the consumption of tools was US$1.9 billion, down 20.8% year-on-year. Among them, the operating trend of China's tool production is basically synchronized with the consumption, and the main reason for the significant decline is that the demand for low-end cutting tools has shrunk dramatically. The fluctuation of import value of tools is not large. In the first half of 2016, the import value of tools was 700 million US dollars, down 6.2% year-on-year. This is related to the fact that import tools are mainly oriented to the middle and high-end sectors and the middle and high-end demand remains relatively stable.
Despite a significant decline, China's machine tool consumer market is still the world's largest market, occupying an important position. According to global machine tool consumption and trade data [1], China's machine tool consumption ranked first in the world in 2015, accounting for 34.8% of all, 3.7 times that of the second US; in 2015, machine tool imports accounted for the world's number One, accounting for 20.6% of the total, is 1.9 times that of the second US. According to the relevant data estimates for the first half of this year, it is expected that the decline in China's machine tool consumption will further narrow this year, and will maintain its position as the world's largest market.
2, structural changes are obvious
The prominent feature of the recent Chinese machine tool consumer market and industry is the obvious structural changes. The following is an analysis of structural changes from both the subdivision and the import.
Demand in emerging markets is rapidly increasing, and demand in traditional industries is sluggish. From the analysis of fixed assets investment data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2016, among the 30 sub-sectors of China's manufacturing industry, investment growth rate increased by 66.7%, and investment growth rate declined by 33.3%. The data at the end of 2015 were respectively 86.7% and 13.3%. In terms of growth rate, the investment growth rate in the first half of 2016 in the double-digit segment is: culture, education, sports and entertainment products manufacturing (17.1%), food manufacturing (15.9%), textile industry (12.9%). ), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (12.3%), pharmaceutical manufacturing (11.7%). In the first half of 2016, the drop in investment in the double-digit segment was: metal products, machinery and equipment repair (-34.9%), tobacco products (-17.7%), and transportation equipment manufacturing (-11%). . In terms of investment amount, the top three are non-metallic mineral products ($113.1 billion), chemical products manufacturing ($99.9 billion), and general equipment manufacturing ($90.2 billion); the last three are tobacco products ( $1.3 billion), metal products, machinery and equipment repair ($1.9 billion), and chemical fiber manufacturing ($8.1 billion).
Metal cutting machine tools have slowed down, and metal forming machines have not yet bottomed out. Regardless of market consumption or production data, the decline in metal cutting machine tools has narrowed recently. In the first half of 2016, the consumption of metal cutting machine tools was US$8.3 billion, down 3.5% year-on-year. Compared with the end of 2015, the growth rate rebounded by 10.9 percentage points; the consumption of metal forming machine tools was US$4.6 billion, down 17.9% year-on-year. Compared with the growth rate, the growth rate dropped by 5.6 percentage points. In recent years, the structure of China's machine tool consumer market has accelerated, and the outstanding performance is that the demand for non-CNC machine tools is shrinking rapidly. As the segmentation of metal cutting machine tools has entered an early stage of adjustment, the adjustment has been carried out more fully, and the proportion of CNC products has been continuously improved, so it has begun to adapt to the current market demand structure. In contrast to the segmentation of metal forming machine tools, the adjustment has just begun, and the rapid decline in non-CNC demand will inevitably drive the market down.
The decline in demand for low-end tools further reflects the under-employment of low-end manufacturing. In the first half of 2016, the import of cutting tools, cemented carbide blades increased by 2.8%, ordinary turning tools decreased by 10.9%; cemented carbide files increased by 12.9%, and ordinary boring tools decreased by 13.1%; cemented carbide The drill bit decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the average drill bit decreased by 9%. From 2015 to the present, the sales of high-speed steel standard tools represented by high-speed steel drills, turning tools, milling cutters, etc. have fallen sharply, with a drop of about 30%, which echoes the trend of shrinking sales and use of non-CNC machine tools. Since tool consumption reflects the operating rate of manufacturing, structural changes in tool consumption also indirectly reflect structural changes in equipment use in manufacturing.
Changes in the source of imports, the top five sources of metal processing machine tools imported in the first half of 2016 were: Japan (1.19 billion US dollars, -9.6%, share 30%), Germany (1.08 billion US dollars, 4.8%, share 27.1%) ), Taiwan (US$420 million, -17.4%, share of 10.5%), South Korea (US$290 million, -17.3%, 7.2%), Switzerland (US$220 million, -0.2%, 5.6%) . The top five import sources of cutting tools are: Japan (190 million US dollars, -6.7%, share 29.4%), Germany (120 million US dollars, -18.9% year-on-year, 19.5% share), Sweden (0.6 billion US dollars, 24.7% year-on-year) %, share 10.2%), Taiwan ($0.6 billion, -5.4%, share 9.9%), South Korea ($0.5 billion, 9.9% year-on-year, 8.3% share).
Changes in the import structure, the top three imports of metal cutting machine tools in the first half of 2016: processing centers (1.5 billion US dollars, -7.3%, share 45.9%), grinding machines (550 million US dollars, 9.2% year-on-year, share 16.8) %), special processing machine tools ($420 million, year-on-year -10.2%, share of 12.8%). The top three metal forming machine tools are: punching and shearing machine tools ($310 million, -3.9%, share of 43.7%), forging machine tools ($190 million, -24.1%, share of 26.8%), presses ($100 million) , -38.8% year-on-year, 14.1% share). The top three cutting tools are: carbide inserts ($280 million, 2.8%, 40% share), drills/tapping tools ($130 million, -11.7%, 18.6%), milling cutters (0.9 billion) US dollar, -6% year-on-year, 12.9% share).
3. New challenges and new opportunities
As China's machine tool and tool consumer market shows a downward trend, there will always be people who care about China's economy and market to ask whether the engine of China's machine tool and tool consumer market is going to be turned off? We feel that answering this question is far more complicated than asking this question, and it requires more rigorous attitude and in-depth analysis. Mainly because today's China's economy is very large, and the degree of market openness is also the highest in history. The factors involved in politics, economy, regional development, population, cultural habits, resources and environment, industrial system, capital and international relations are complicated and far from other small and medium-sized. The volume of the country is comparable, and it is not only which genre economic theory and model can be analyzed clearly. From the current development of China's current situation, combined with the government's policy orientation, this paper analyzes the new challenges and new opportunities that China's machine tool consumer market may face in the future.
In the analysis of the status quo of China's economic operation, it has been clearly pointed out that the downturn in recent years is mainly due to the impact of new and old kinetic energy conversion and structural upgrading of economic development. Machine tool products belong to the production materials. It is obviously impossible to be independent when the domestic user industry needs change and structural adjustment and upgrading, and it will definitely be directly or indirectly affected. In recent years, heavy machine tool manufacturers have experienced severe performance declines due to changes in energy and steel demand, which is the most typical example. It can be said that these incompatibility with changes in market demand and how to adapt to new market demands are new challenges that need to be faced in today's machine tool consumer market in China.
There is an old saying in China that "the old is not going, the new is not coming". As far as China's industrialization and consumption potential are concerned, these new challenges are born with more new opportunities. First of all, China's industrialization has not yet been completed, and many basic links and equipment conditions are still weak, and there is huge room for growth. By comparing the industrialization development process of “Industry 4.0â€, only a very small number of Chinese industries are in the “Industry 4.0†stage, most of them are in the middle and early stage of “Industry 3.0â€, and even certain industries or enterprises are in “industrialâ€. 2.0" stage. This makes it understandable that in the past decade or so, there will always be about one-third of the Chinese market's consumption structure being non-CNC machine tools. This imbalance in industrial development means that the stable demand for machine tool consumption in the future may not be as large as historically, but the added value will certainly be higher than before. Second, China is the world's largest manufacturing country, has established a complete industrial system, and has many high-quality laborers. These advantages will help Chinese manufacturing to serve both domestic and foreign markets in the future. As China is entering the stage of population aging, the quality and quantity of labor will show a downward trend. In order to make up for the shortage of labor and rising costs, the requirements for manufacturing equipment will continue to increase in efficiency, automation and intelligence. Some of the low-end machine tool stocks formed during the high-speed growth of investment in the past few years will be eliminated or modified ahead of this increase, rather than waiting for their life to expire. We estimate that this part of the demand will form a certain degree of explosive growth with the changes in China's labor structure. Finally, it is the energy-saving and environmental protection requirements that match the growth of China's economy and the improvement of international status, and the upgrading of the consumption level of machine tools brought by the development of emerging strategic industries. High-precision, high-efficiency, high-performance, automated and complex manufacturing demand solutions in manufacturing, such as medical, aerospace, defense, energy, transportation, and electronic information, with better unit energy productivity The sustainable development of China's economy and manufacturing.
As the saying goes, falling into the water does not necessarily drown, and staying in the water will be drowned. The positive changes in the Chinese market have provided a broad space for growth and innovation companies, including international machine tool manufacturers, and the challenge will be a souvenir for the winners.
In summary, we have reason to have confidence in the long-term development of China's machine tool consumer market.
Third, the preparation of CIMT2017
China International Machine Tool Show (CIMT) is a highly internationalized machine tool event founded by China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association in 1988. It is also known as EMO, IMTS and JIMTOF as the world's four international machine tool exhibitions. After 14 successful sessions, CIMT2017 will be held in Beijing on April 17-22, 2017.
Looking back at the previous China International Machine Tool Show (CIMT2015), in the context of the global economic downturn and the transformation and upgrading of China's machine tool and tool consumer market, CIMT2015 has re-created the largest scale with a display area of ​​131,000 square meters, including domestic and overseas. Exhibitors' exhibition area each accounted for 50%. The exhibition attracted 1,554 exhibitors from 28 countries and regions around the world, and the world-renowned machine tool manufacturers participated in the exhibition. During the 6-day exhibition, more than 315,000 high-quality professional visitors were ushered in. The exhibits of CIMT2015 mainly reflect the latest developments in advanced manufacturing technology in terms of high precision, high efficiency, compound, intelligent and environmental protection.
CIMT2017 was reloaded. The theme of this exhibition is “New Demand, New Supply, New Powerâ€. Around this theme, we will organize a series of special activities such as information release, exhibit promotion, technical exchange, and business matching to provide support for exhibitors to develop their business. .
In order to better serve exhibitors and visitors at home and abroad, the organizer China Machine Tool Industry Association (CMTBA) proposed to build an upgraded version of CIMT. To this end, it is planned to continue to promote the professional layout in the area of ​​131,000 square meters of CIMT2017 exhibition, focusing on the establishment of metal forming and laser processing machine tool exhibition area, 3D printing exhibition area, industrial robot exhibition area and accessories and cutting tool exhibition area. The organizer intends to achieve domestic and foreign exhibitors competing in the same product technology field, which is more conducive to professional visitors and buyers to visit and negotiate. We will build an exhibition information platform and highlight the advanced nature and representativeness of international exhibitors on the basis of ensuring a high degree of internationalization, and strive to enrich and enhance the exhibition activities. Through the above efforts, it aims to make CIMT2017 a more professional, informatized and international communication and interactive platform, providing a full range of services for exhibitors, visitors and the media.
Welcome global exhibitors and visitors to participate in CIMT2017, let us take advantage of CIMT2017's display and communication platform to jointly move towards a new future.
Ladies and gentlemen:
good morning guys!
First of all, please allow me, on behalf of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, to express my warm welcome and heartfelt thanks to all the guests and friends from all walks of life who participated in today's press conference!
At today's press conference, we will introduce the following aspects: the new situation of China's economy, the new changes in China's machine tool consumption market and the preparations for the 15th China International Machine Tool Show (CIMT2017).
I. The new situation of the Chinese economy 1. The position of the Chinese economy in the world economy
As we all know, China has become the world's second largest economy in 2009. It has been more than seven years now, and the gross domestic product (GDP) has reached more than 10 trillion US dollars. According to data released by the World Bank, China’s GDP in 2015 was 10.9 trillion US dollars (a growth rate of 6.9%), which was 60% of the first US (2.43% growth rate) and the third Japan (0.47% growth rate). It is 2.7 times, which is 3.2 times that of the fourth Germany (1.69% growth rate) and 5.2 times that of India (7.57% growth rate). In terms of global import and export trade, China’s total import and export volume in 2015 was 3.96 trillion US dollars, accounting for 11.9% of the total global import and export trade, ranking first. In the context of the sluggish global trade situation in the first half of 2016, most of the major economies’ export trade showed double-digit negative growth, while China’s exports only declined slightly (-7.8%), accounting for the majority of world trade. The share "does not fall and rises." The above macro data shows that the Chinese economy has firmly stood on the second step of the world and has become an indispensable and important part of the world economy and trade. Although China's economic growth has slowed markedly in recent years, China, with such high economic volume and growth rate, is still the most important engine for world economic development.
2. The operating status of the Chinese economy
Affected by the worldwide financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese economy is experiencing structural adjustments. In particular, under the combined effects of weak world economic recovery, falling commodity prices, increased international trade frictions, prominent internal structural contradictions, rising factor costs and an aging population, China's economic development has entered a new normal. The external manifestation of the new normal of China's economy is characterized by the change of economic growth from high-speed to medium-high speed range, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment is declining, and consumption instead of investment has become the biggest factor contributing to GDP growth; the internal factor is the development of kinetic energy switching and Structural adjustments such as the upgrading of development models urgently need to be promoted.
In recent years, due to the continued slowdown in China's economic growth, China's industrial economic growth has also continued to decline. The growth rate of industrial added value in 2015 was 6.1%, down 9.6 percentage points from 2010. Recently, with the introduction of various measures of “steady growth and restructuring†of the Chinese government, China’s industrial economy showed a downward trend in the first half of 2016, and the effect of structural adjustment was beginning to emerge. From January to June 2016, industrial added value increased by 6% year-on-year. From the perspective of quarterly growth, the growth rate of industrial added value from the third quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016 fluctuated slightly within the range of around 6%, and the industrial growth rate tends to be stable. In terms of industrial economic structure, from January to June 2016, the mining industry grew by 0.1%, far below the industrial growth rate. In the key industries for overcapacity, raw coal production fell by 9.7% year-on-year, crude steel production fell by 1.1%, and electrolytic aluminum production fell by 1.9%. In contrast, the added value of strategic emerging industries, including energy conservation and environmental protection industries, new generation information technology, bio-industry, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy industry, new materials industry, and new energy vehicles, increased by 11% year-on-year. In general, China's economic and industrial operations have stabilized, and its volatility changes mainly reflect the consumption response of new and old kinetic energy conversion and structural upgrading to economic operations.
3. Main factors affecting the future Chinese economy
At the end of 2015, the Chinese government proposed the strategic direction of supply-side structural reform according to the new characteristics of economic development changes, and then further clarified the five key tasks of “three to one, one reduction and one supplement†that need to be implemented in the near future to realize the supply-side structural reform. That is, “to de-capacity, destocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boardingâ€. The main contents are: de-capacity, dissolving excess capacity and disposing of zombie enterprises; destocking, resolving real estate inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities; de-leveraging, reducing corporate debt ratio and leverage; reducing costs, reducing institutional transaction costs, and enterprises Unreasonable burden; make up the short board, supplement the shortcomings by increasing investment, and promote structural adjustment. On July 23, 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized at the twenty-sixth meeting of the Central Committee for the Comprehensive Deepening of Reform, "Ensuring that the reform direction is not deviated, and that the clear reform tasks are not lost." Therefore, the above reform direction and key tasks will become the main internal factors affecting the Chinese economy, machine tool consumer market and industrial operation trend in the coming period.
On the other hand, China's internationalization process is steadily advancing. For example, the new round of RMB market reform mechanism initiated in August 2015, the internationalization of the RMB is accelerating; the “Belt and Road†and “going out†strategies Steady implementation, China's foreign investment accelerated to promote deeper and more frequent interaction between domestic industries and international markets and industrial chains; China is promoting the negotiation and implementation of multiple unilateral and multilateral FTAs, the Chinese market will be more open, etc. .
"China is the world's largest developing country, the world's largest manufacturing country, a major trade in goods and services, the world's second largest consumer market, and an emerging market with great growth potential in the world. "Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at the Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin, China this year, "We are optimistic about the Chinese economy, both current and future."
Second, the new changes in China's machine tool consumption market 1, the overall situation
As mentioned above, in recent years, due to the slowdown of China's economy, investment growth and the upgrading of demand structure, the total scale of China's machine tool and tool consumer market has shown a stage of decline. The following is a description of the changes in consumption, production and imports from the two main sub-product areas of metalworking machine tools and tools.
The consumption of metalworking machine tools has experienced a three-step decline from 2015 to the highest level in 2015. The first step is the relatively high level in 2011-2012, which is 390.9 and 38.28 billion US dollars respectively; the second step is a significant decline in 2013-2014, which is 319.1 and 31.83 billion US dollars respectively; the third step is from 2015 to the present. A slight decline, machine tool consumption in 2015 was 27.5 billion US dollars, in the first half of 2016 was 12.9 billion US dollars, down 9.2%. The production trend of metal processing machine tools is similar to the change in consumption, and it basically forms a three-step decline in synchronization with consumption. In the first half of 2016, the production of metal processing machine tools was 10.4 billion US dollars, down 8.8% year-on-year. Although the import of metalworking machine tools has also declined, the third step is not obvious, mainly due to the gradual slowdown of imports in the later period. In the first half of 2016, the import value of metal processing machine tools was US$4 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year.
The Chinese tool consumer market experienced a significant decline in 2015 after experiencing a slow-changing “turtle-back†growth. In 2015, the consumption of tools was US$4.5 billion, down 12.1% year-on-year. In the first half of 2016, the consumption of tools was US$1.9 billion, down 20.8% year-on-year. Among them, the operating trend of China's tool production is basically synchronized with the consumption, and the main reason for the significant decline is that the demand for low-end cutting tools has shrunk dramatically. The fluctuation of import value of tools is not large. In the first half of 2016, the import value of tools was 700 million US dollars, down 6.2% year-on-year. This is related to the fact that import tools are mainly oriented to the middle and high-end sectors and the middle and high-end demand remains relatively stable.
Despite a significant decline, China's machine tool consumer market is still the world's largest market, occupying an important position. According to global machine tool consumption and trade data [1], China's machine tool consumption ranked first in the world in 2015, accounting for 34.8% of all, 3.7 times that of the second US; in 2015, machine tool imports accounted for the world's number One, accounting for 20.6% of the total, is 1.9 times that of the second US. According to the relevant data estimates for the first half of this year, it is expected that the decline in China's machine tool consumption will further narrow this year, and will maintain its position as the world's largest market.
2, structural changes are obvious
The prominent feature of the recent Chinese machine tool consumer market and industry is the obvious structural changes. The following is an analysis of structural changes from both the subdivision and the import.
Demand in emerging markets is rapidly increasing, and demand in traditional industries is sluggish. From the analysis of fixed assets investment data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2016, among the 30 sub-sectors of China's manufacturing industry, investment growth rate increased by 66.7%, and investment growth rate declined by 33.3%. The data at the end of 2015 were respectively 86.7% and 13.3%. In terms of growth rate, the investment growth rate in the first half of 2016 in the double-digit segment is: culture, education, sports and entertainment products manufacturing (17.1%), food manufacturing (15.9%), textile industry (12.9%). ), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (12.3%), pharmaceutical manufacturing (11.7%). In the first half of 2016, the drop in investment in the double-digit segment was: metal products, machinery and equipment repair (-34.9%), tobacco products (-17.7%), and transportation equipment manufacturing (-11%). . In terms of investment amount, the top three are non-metallic mineral products ($113.1 billion), chemical products manufacturing ($99.9 billion), and general equipment manufacturing ($90.2 billion); the last three are tobacco products ( $1.3 billion), metal products, machinery and equipment repair ($1.9 billion), and chemical fiber manufacturing ($8.1 billion).
Metal cutting machine tools have slowed down, and metal forming machines have not yet bottomed out. Regardless of market consumption or production data, the decline in metal cutting machine tools has narrowed recently. In the first half of 2016, the consumption of metal cutting machine tools was US$8.3 billion, down 3.5% year-on-year. Compared with the end of 2015, the growth rate rebounded by 10.9 percentage points; the consumption of metal forming machine tools was US$4.6 billion, down 17.9% year-on-year. Compared with the growth rate, the growth rate dropped by 5.6 percentage points. In recent years, the structure of China's machine tool consumer market has accelerated, and the outstanding performance is that the demand for non-CNC machine tools is shrinking rapidly. As the segmentation of metal cutting machine tools has entered an early stage of adjustment, the adjustment has been carried out more fully, and the proportion of CNC products has been continuously improved, so it has begun to adapt to the current market demand structure. In contrast to the segmentation of metal forming machine tools, the adjustment has just begun, and the rapid decline in non-CNC demand will inevitably drive the market down.
The decline in demand for low-end tools further reflects the under-employment of low-end manufacturing. In the first half of 2016, the import of cutting tools, cemented carbide blades increased by 2.8%, ordinary turning tools decreased by 10.9%; cemented carbide files increased by 12.9%, and ordinary boring tools decreased by 13.1%; cemented carbide The drill bit decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the average drill bit decreased by 9%. From 2015 to the present, the sales of high-speed steel standard tools represented by high-speed steel drills, turning tools, milling cutters, etc. have fallen sharply, with a drop of about 30%, which echoes the trend of shrinking sales and use of non-CNC machine tools. Since tool consumption reflects the operating rate of manufacturing, structural changes in tool consumption also indirectly reflect structural changes in equipment use in manufacturing.
Changes in the source of imports, the top five sources of metal processing machine tools imported in the first half of 2016 were: Japan (1.19 billion US dollars, -9.6%, share 30%), Germany (1.08 billion US dollars, 4.8%, share 27.1%) ), Taiwan (US$420 million, -17.4%, share of 10.5%), South Korea (US$290 million, -17.3%, 7.2%), Switzerland (US$220 million, -0.2%, 5.6%) . The top five import sources of cutting tools are: Japan (190 million US dollars, -6.7%, share 29.4%), Germany (120 million US dollars, -18.9% year-on-year, 19.5% share), Sweden (0.6 billion US dollars, 24.7% year-on-year) %, share 10.2%), Taiwan ($0.6 billion, -5.4%, share 9.9%), South Korea ($0.5 billion, 9.9% year-on-year, 8.3% share).
Changes in the import structure, the top three imports of metal cutting machine tools in the first half of 2016: processing centers (1.5 billion US dollars, -7.3%, share 45.9%), grinding machines (550 million US dollars, 9.2% year-on-year, share 16.8) %), special processing machine tools ($420 million, year-on-year -10.2%, share of 12.8%). The top three metal forming machine tools are: punching and shearing machine tools ($310 million, -3.9%, share of 43.7%), forging machine tools ($190 million, -24.1%, share of 26.8%), presses ($100 million) , -38.8% year-on-year, 14.1% share). The top three cutting tools are: carbide inserts ($280 million, 2.8%, 40% share), drills/tapping tools ($130 million, -11.7%, 18.6%), milling cutters (0.9 billion) US dollar, -6% year-on-year, 12.9% share).
3. New challenges and new opportunities
As China's machine tool and tool consumer market shows a downward trend, there will always be people who care about China's economy and market to ask whether the engine of China's machine tool and tool consumer market is going to be turned off? We feel that answering this question is far more complicated than asking this question, and it requires more rigorous attitude and in-depth analysis. Mainly because today's China's economy is very large, and the degree of market openness is also the highest in history. The factors involved in politics, economy, regional development, population, cultural habits, resources and environment, industrial system, capital and international relations are complicated and far from other small and medium-sized. The volume of the country is comparable, and it is not only which genre economic theory and model can be analyzed clearly. From the current development of China's current situation, combined with the government's policy orientation, this paper analyzes the new challenges and new opportunities that China's machine tool consumer market may face in the future.
In the analysis of the status quo of China's economic operation, it has been clearly pointed out that the downturn in recent years is mainly due to the impact of new and old kinetic energy conversion and structural upgrading of economic development. Machine tool products belong to the production materials. It is obviously impossible to be independent when the domestic user industry needs change and structural adjustment and upgrading, and it will definitely be directly or indirectly affected. In recent years, heavy machine tool manufacturers have experienced severe performance declines due to changes in energy and steel demand, which is the most typical example. It can be said that these incompatibility with changes in market demand and how to adapt to new market demands are new challenges that need to be faced in today's machine tool consumer market in China.
There is an old saying in China that "the old is not going, the new is not coming". As far as China's industrialization and consumption potential are concerned, these new challenges are born with more new opportunities. First of all, China's industrialization has not yet been completed, and many basic links and equipment conditions are still weak, and there is huge room for growth. By comparing the industrialization development process of “Industry 4.0â€, only a very small number of Chinese industries are in the “Industry 4.0†stage, most of them are in the middle and early stage of “Industry 3.0â€, and even certain industries or enterprises are in “industrialâ€. 2.0" stage. This makes it understandable that in the past decade or so, there will always be about one-third of the Chinese market's consumption structure being non-CNC machine tools. This imbalance in industrial development means that the stable demand for machine tool consumption in the future may not be as large as historically, but the added value will certainly be higher than before. Second, China is the world's largest manufacturing country, has established a complete industrial system, and has many high-quality laborers. These advantages will help Chinese manufacturing to serve both domestic and foreign markets in the future. As China is entering the stage of population aging, the quality and quantity of labor will show a downward trend. In order to make up for the shortage of labor and rising costs, the requirements for manufacturing equipment will continue to increase in efficiency, automation and intelligence. Some of the low-end machine tool stocks formed during the high-speed growth of investment in the past few years will be eliminated or modified ahead of this increase, rather than waiting for their life to expire. We estimate that this part of the demand will form a certain degree of explosive growth with the changes in China's labor structure. Finally, it is the energy-saving and environmental protection requirements that match the growth of China's economy and the improvement of international status, and the upgrading of the consumption level of machine tools brought by the development of emerging strategic industries. High-precision, high-efficiency, high-performance, automated and complex manufacturing demand solutions in manufacturing, such as medical, aerospace, defense, energy, transportation, and electronic information, with better unit energy productivity The sustainable development of China's economy and manufacturing.
As the saying goes, falling into the water does not necessarily drown, and staying in the water will be drowned. The positive changes in the Chinese market have provided a broad space for growth and innovation companies, including international machine tool manufacturers, and the challenge will be a souvenir for the winners.
In summary, we have reason to have confidence in the long-term development of China's machine tool consumer market.
Third, the preparation of CIMT2017
China International Machine Tool Show (CIMT) is a highly internationalized machine tool event founded by China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association in 1988. It is also known as EMO, IMTS and JIMTOF as the world's four international machine tool exhibitions. After 14 successful sessions, CIMT2017 will be held in Beijing on April 17-22, 2017.
Looking back at the previous China International Machine Tool Show (CIMT2015), in the context of the global economic downturn and the transformation and upgrading of China's machine tool and tool consumer market, CIMT2015 has re-created the largest scale with a display area of ​​131,000 square meters, including domestic and overseas. Exhibitors' exhibition area each accounted for 50%. The exhibition attracted 1,554 exhibitors from 28 countries and regions around the world, and the world-renowned machine tool manufacturers participated in the exhibition. During the 6-day exhibition, more than 315,000 high-quality professional visitors were ushered in. The exhibits of CIMT2015 mainly reflect the latest developments in advanced manufacturing technology in terms of high precision, high efficiency, compound, intelligent and environmental protection.
CIMT2017 was reloaded. The theme of this exhibition is “New Demand, New Supply, New Powerâ€. Around this theme, we will organize a series of special activities such as information release, exhibit promotion, technical exchange, and business matching to provide support for exhibitors to develop their business. .
In order to better serve exhibitors and visitors at home and abroad, the organizer China Machine Tool Industry Association (CMTBA) proposed to build an upgraded version of CIMT. To this end, it is planned to continue to promote the professional layout in the area of ​​131,000 square meters of CIMT2017 exhibition, focusing on the establishment of metal forming and laser processing machine tool exhibition area, 3D printing exhibition area, industrial robot exhibition area and accessories and cutting tool exhibition area. The organizer intends to achieve domestic and foreign exhibitors competing in the same product technology field, which is more conducive to professional visitors and buyers to visit and negotiate. We will build an exhibition information platform and highlight the advanced nature and representativeness of international exhibitors on the basis of ensuring a high degree of internationalization, and strive to enrich and enhance the exhibition activities. Through the above efforts, it aims to make CIMT2017 a more professional, informatized and international communication and interactive platform, providing a full range of services for exhibitors, visitors and the media.
Welcome global exhibitors and visitors to participate in CIMT2017, let us take advantage of CIMT2017's display and communication platform to jointly move towards a new future.
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