Abstract : By 2015, large-scale production will be realized, and shale gas production will reach 6.5 billion cubic meters per year. This is a picture of the shale gas 12th Five-Year Plan published in March last year. Recent blueprints. Since then, "65 billion squares" has become a lot of people hanging on their lips...
"By 2015, the initial large-scale production will be achieved, and shale gas production will reach 6.5 billion cubic meters per year." This is a recent report of the "Shale Gas" 12th Five-Year Plan announced in March last year. blueprint. Since then, "6.5 billion squares" has become a shackle for many people. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Land and Resources, as of the end of March 2013, the national shale gas exploration and development has invested a total of 7 billion yuan, and a total of 130 shale gas wells have been implemented (including 46 geological survey wells and 55 vertical wells). 28 horizontal wells, 9000 kilometers of 2D earthquakes, 800 square kilometers of 3D earthquakes, mainly distributed in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing and Other places, invested and explored by companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec and Yanchang Petroleum. In 2012, the country's shale gas production was about 30 million square meters, and it sold 15 million square meters through natural gas pipeline network.
According to the statistics of the Oil and Gas Resources Survey Center of the China Geological Survey, after hydraulic fracturing and testing, there are currently 23 shale gas wells with a daily output exceeding 10,000 square meters, 10 with more than 100,000 square meters, and 4 for trial mining. It is estimated that this year's shale gas production can reach 200 million square meters.
However, over half of the time, production is far from half of the expected target, and the development of the second round of shale gas tendering blocks is slow and difficult. "Two barrels of oil" as the main force, the results are remarkable, but the cost is very high; many enterprises entering the shale gas development field through bidding are suffering from insufficient funds or lack of experience and technology, and they are in a dilemma.
"From the past two years, the overall development of shale gas in China is not very good. Last year's output was 50 million cubic meters. This year's output is expected to reach 200 million cubic meters. But this is far from the expected goal of the '12th Five-Year Plan'. Far. The stability of some shale gas wells is still not enough. The investment in shale gas investment is still not enough, and the technology of exploration has not been substantially improved. Some enterprises have more serious problems in the enclosure, and some have Exploring the phenomenon of '. Ren Haoning, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, said in an interview with the reporter of China Sankei Shimbun.
Zhang Yousheng, director of the Energy Economics and Development Strategy Research Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the development of China's shale gas industry is still in its infancy, and there is still no understanding. Under this background, plans are made to guide and promote the shale gas industry. Development, its positive role is undeniable, but scientific is also controversial. Ren Haoning said that the expectations for shale gas holdings were high, but the related companies did not treat shale gas as a real shameful and sustainable development industry. I hope that shale gas will achieve good results in the next three to five years and promote China's energy structure adjustment. Many of them are based on policy considerations and do not focus on industrial positioning. The understanding of the industry is still not enough.
The third round of bidding for shale gas is about to start, and the news that the scale exceeds the previous two sums stimulates the shale gas concept stocks to go against the trend. At present, there are more than a dozen gas wells in the country to enter the commercial development stage. After the first two rounds of bidding, the shale gas has once again become the focus of the market after a period of silence.
Seriously summarizing the experience and lessons of the first round of the round, for the third round of bidding, Ren Haoning said that no matter whether the private enterprises and state-owned enterprises participate, these are not important. The people care about the phenomenon that some enterprises will not explore after winning the bid. Get curbed. Government departments should let the winning bidders list a detailed mining schedule and publish it. Moreover, the government is deciding who will finally win the bid to use the mining schedule as an important basis. At the same time, the winning bidders should strengthen their in-depth cooperation with local enterprises in shale gas to improve efficiency.
For the development of shale gas, it is still in the accumulation stage and should not be blindly sought. Li Yulong, a strategic management expert at CNPC, pointed out that since China's shale gas development is still in the early stage, it should focus on technology research and development rather than setting too specific targets. The opening of the "golden age" of shale gas requires more rationality and patience.
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