How to treat the GDP growth rate "East slow west fast" (below)

Regardless of whether it is the eastern region or the central and western regions, while stabilizing growth is the current top priority, it is facing the problem of changing the mode and adjusting the structure. The focus should be on improving the quality of economic development in the first half of this year. The growth rate was 7.8%, and the growth rate in the second quarter was 7.6%. This is the time after three years, the growth rate has once again returned to below 8%. In terms of provinces, although the GDP growth rate of each province has declined compared with the same period of last year, the GDP growth rate of most provinces is still higher than the national level. Relevant experts said that both the eastern region and the central and western regions, while taking steady growth as their current top priority, are faced with the problem of transfer mode and structural adjustment. The focus should be on comprehensively improving the quality of economic development. Promoting the optimization of the eastern economic structure In the first half of this year, as the largest economic province in China, Guangdong's GDP growth rate was only 7.4%, which was only 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period of the international financial crisis in 2009. It hit a new low in recent years. The growth rate of major economic indicators also showed a different degree of decline. “Guangdong Province’s export-oriented economy is characterized by obvious economic dependence. In the context of the global economic downturn and the weak external demand market, the slowdown in GDP growth is expected.” Research on Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council Li Zuojun, deputy director of the institute, said. Since the beginning of this year, due to the continued sluggish international economy, rising domestic labor costs, and shortage of land supply, Guangdong's foreign trade growth has been slow. According to preliminary forecasts, in the first half of the year, the province's total import and export value increased by only 5.0% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 6.8%. At present, the weak external demand has caused the export to be blocked, and it is further appearing in the eastern coastal provinces. In Zhejiang, another major foreign trade province in the east, the total import and export volume of the province in the first half of this year increased by 3.5% compared with the same period of last year. The growth rate dropped significantly, especially for the EU, which continued to grow negatively, down 6.8% year-on-year. "At present, the international economy is in the second stage of the financial crisis - the stage of sovereign debt crisis, and the economic situation will continue to be sluggish." Li Zuojun said that under the situation that the international economic situation has not improved, there is not much hope for exports. Even if Western developed countries recover from the economic crisis, the situation of external demand continues to weaken and it is difficult to effectively change in the short term. Li Zuojun suggested that at present, the eastern provinces should seize the opportunity to accelerate the transformation of economic development from relying on external demand to "two-wheel drive" of internal and external demand. To achieve the improvement of domestic demand, the key is to solve the employment of ordinary people, improve income levels, improve consumption power, promote income distribution reform, narrow the income gap, and provide a broad space for expanding domestic demand by breaking the corresponding institutional mechanisms. In addition, the eastern provinces should also take advantage of opportunities for industrial transfer, accelerate the optimization of industrial structure, promote the upgrading of industrial structure to the middle and high end, and inject new impetus into economic development. Achieving sustainable development in the central and western regions In the first half of this year, fixed asset investment in many provinces in the central and western regions has maintained a relatively fast growth momentum, and investment has become an important supporting force for local economic development. Data show that in the first half of the year, Shanxi's fixed asset investment increased by 24.1% year-on-year, of which industrial investment increased by 28.6%; Guizhou's total social fixed assets investment increased by 58.1% over the same period of last year, of which industrial investment increased by 57.3%. In addition, investment in projects of 5 million yuan and above in Jiangxi Province increased by 31.3% year-on-year, fixed assets investment in Hubei Province increased by 28.1%, fixed assets investment in Hunan Province increased by 24.2%, and fixed assets investment in Yunnan increased by 37.7%. Lin Jiang, director of the Economics Department of the China Youth University for Political Sciences, said that in the context of the slowdown in the eastern economic growth, the central and western provinces have used their own resource advantages to accelerate the transfer of industries in the eastern region, which will inevitably lead to a continuous increase in fixed asset investment. . In the short run, such investment will inevitably become the main driving force for local economic development. However, once the labor costs in the central region rise and the resources and environment are strengthened, the pressure on economic restructuring and industrial transformation will increase. In this sense, the higher economic growth rate that is formed by relying on investment growth is not only unsustainable, but may add resistance to the transfer mode and structural adjustment. Lin Jiang told reporters that the current GDP growth rate in the central and western regions is higher than that in the eastern region. This is an inevitable result of the country's strategy of implementing the development of the western region and the rise of the central region. However, the central and western regions cannot simply pursue the speed of development, but must pay more attention to the input, output, and energy consumption behind GDP, with particular emphasis on improving the quality of economic development and achieving sustainable development. "Of course, industrial transfer and structural adjustment cannot be achieved in the short term." Lin Jiang said that while the central and western regions are undertaking, they must promote industrial transformation and upgrading to achieve sustainable economic development. Overall improvement of the quality of economic development "In general, accelerating the transformation of economic development mode is a major strategy for China's economic development. Whether in the eastern provinces or the central and western regions, more energy should be placed on adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure and upgrading the economy. In terms of the quality of development, the development model of simply pursuing GDP growth is tantamount to 'lifting your own feet'." Lin Jiang said. In recent years, many provinces in China have realized the importance of improving the quality of economic development, and accelerated the exploration of the transfer mode and structure, and achieved remarkable results. According to a report released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences recently, since 1993, China's GDP quality index has generally shown a steady upward trend. The report shows that in the first half of this year, the improvement of GDP quality in Ningxia, Hainan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Anhui, Hebei, Tianjin, Jiangxi and other provinces was the most obvious. The reporter learned that these provinces have different advantages in optimizing the economic structure and improving the quality of economic development. While maintaining the stable and good service industries such as commerce and trade, transportation and transportation, Tianjin has taken the emerging service industry such as building economy as its starting point and accelerated the development of modern service industry. The proportion of the tertiary industry has been steadily increasing. In the case of the building economy alone, the tax revenue in the first half of the year increased by 13.1% year-on-year, and 36 buildings had a tax of more than 100 million yuan in half a year. In the context of the weak external demand market, Chongqing has arranged special funds to help enterprises stabilize production and promote sales, and introduced a series of measures to stimulate consumption, such as “cars for farmers” and “home appliances for the benefit of the people”, to stimulate the domestic demand market for economic development. Inject endogenous power. In addition, Jiangxi and other provinces and regions have accelerated the development of strategic emerging industries, optimized the industrial structure of the secondary industry, enhanced the contribution rate of strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries to industrial growth, and gradually reduced the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries and promoted Structural optimization of the industrial economy. Lin Jiang said that the biggest challenge facing China's current economic development is how to achieve economic growth and industrial upgrading in the eastern, central and western regions while stabilizing growth. On the one hand, enterprises should take more initiative to rely on independent innovation, enhance the technological content of products, and take a capital-intensive and technology-intensive road. On the other hand, the government should also strengthen policy guidance and create a sound policy for comprehensively improving the quality of economic development. surroundings.

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