High melamine price consolidation

Sinochem New Online News Since September, the domestic melamine market has experienced high consolidation, with little price fluctuation. The current melamine factory price is mostly 9400 to 9900 yuan (t price, the same below), the market wholesale price is mostly 9700 to 10500 yuan, the low-end melamine at atmospheric pressure, high-end high-pressure method melamine.

Judging from the recent trend of melamine prices, the sharp increase in raw material urea prices did not trigger further rise in melamine prices. As a result of the international urea price increase, export volume increase, and energy conservation and emission reduction, domestic urea prices rose in the first wave in August and the factory price rushed to 1,700 yuan. In September, the second wave rose again. Rising strength is even greater. In many areas, the urea factory price is more than 1,800 yuan, and even higher, it has reached 1,880 to 1,900 yuan. However, as the price of melamine in the previous period has risen sharply, the current price of melamine has been at a high level. The profitability of melamine manufacturers is better, and the bearing capacity of raw material prices is stronger, while the downstream demand is weak, the willingness to chase is not strong, and companies are more It is based on demand rather than production costs, so it caused a divergence of urea prices and melamine prices did not rise.

At present, most of the melamine export quotation is from US$1380 to US$1,400. Considering the relatively large appreciation rate of the recent ***, some manufacturers have quoted their offshore export quotation at US$1,420-1,450, but no transactions have been made. Converted into ***, the current export price of melamine is slightly lower than the domestic price.

Looking at the market outlook, the melamine market is expected to remain dominated by high consolidation. On the one hand, due to the current high prices, the operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and new capacity has also been increasing. For example, Shandong Luxi Chemical's annual production capacity of 160,000 tons of melamine phase I project is 80,000 tons. The project has been put into operation recently, and the price of melamine continues. It is more difficult to increase; on the other hand, due to the peak production season in the downstream plate industry after October, the demand for melamine increases, coupled with higher raw material urea prices, it is estimated that the price of melamine will drop, especially the possibility of a sharp drop. Big. The market is expected to be relatively stable and slightly volatile.