Analysis of the Development Status and Prospect of China's Polysilicon Industry

The world is transitioning from an industrial society to an information society. Information technology has become a key technology for promoting social development and progress. The level of informatization has become a symbol of a country's modernization level. Microelectronics technology is the foundation and key technology of information technology. Integrated circuits are also the core of microelectronics technology. The emergence of more and more excellent integrated circuits from one generation to the next advances the process of global economic integration, while semiconductor silicon materials are integrated. The most important and irreplaceable basic functional materials of the circuit, polysilicon is the "base stone" or "grain" of the integrated circuit building. In recent years, due to the rapid development of the world's semiconductor integrated circuit industry and solar photovoltaic industry, especially driven by the development of solar cell industry, the polysilicon market has developed rapidly.

Polysilicon is a form of elemental silicon. When the molten elemental silicon solidifies under supercooling conditions, the silicon atoms are arranged in a diamond lattice shape into a plurality of crystal nuclei, and if these crystal nuclei grow into crystal grains with different crystal orientations, these crystal grains combine to crystallize into polysilicon. .

With the development of global economic integration and international cooperation in economic division of labor, China has abundant silica resources, small hydropower resources, and cheap labor. In addition, the industrial silicon production process is not complicated, and the development of industrial silicon production is more suitable for China’s national conditions. The silicon industry has a wide range of development prospects in China.

China's polysilicon industry has experienced a period of detour in recent decades. Until 2005, the actual production of polysilicon in China was only 160 tons. The capacity reached 400 tons by 2006. Ninety-five percent of the required polysilicon depends on foreign high-priced imports. In the "polysilicon crisis" and "surge of solar cell surging, in the two years from 2005 to 2006," the domestic industry is booming and big on the polysilicon project. According to incomplete statistics, there are 370 photovoltaic companies in 29 provinces, cities and regions in China, including more than 80 polysilicon enterprises, more than 100 silicon ingots and wafer companies, and more than 120 solar cell companies.

With the support of the central government in promoting new energy policies, the local provinces are also actively following up and developing advantageous industries. Jiangxi Province seized the opportunity to rely on the resource advantages of powder quartz (the major raw material of silicon materials) in China and introduced various measures to ensure the development of the photovoltaic industry. In a short period of 3 or 4 years, a large number of upstream and downstream photovoltaic industry projects quickly gathered in Jiangxi and became an important photovoltaic industry base in China.

China Investment Advisor's latest report on "China's polysilicon industry investment analysis and forecast report for the period 2010-2015" shows that in the first quarter of 2010, GCL-Poly produced 3,112 tons of polysilicon, representing an increase of approximately 184.5% year-on-year, maintaining a gross profit margin of approximately 30%. Compared with other domestic manufacturers, the advantages are more obvious. The latest data show that from January to May, GCL-Poly sold 5713 tons of polysilicon, an increase of 300% over the same period of last year.

However, this is not a reflection of the overall status of the domestic polysilicon industry. On the contrary, with the advent of the industry's low-profit era and the impact of government regulation and control policies, the status of most domestic polysilicon companies can even be described as difficult.

Although there are a large number of polysilicon companies in China, due to the issuance of “38 files”, many companies are on the verge of shutting down and failing. The hot market did not allow the results of expansion and production to directly lead to the crazy rise in polysilicon prices.

The demand for polysilicon from Chinese integrated circuits and solar cells has grown rapidly. In 2005, the integrated circuit industry required about 1,000 tons of electronic-grade polysilicon, and solar cells required about 1,400 tons of polysilicon; by 2010, the annual demand for China's electronic-grade polysilicon will reach about 2,000 tons. The annual demand for photovoltaic grade polysilicon will reach about 4,200 tons. China's independent supply of polysilicon has a serious gap, more than 95% of polysilicon materials need to be imported, long-term supply constraints, coupled with skyrocketing prices, has jeopardized the development of many companies downstream polysilicon, becoming a constraint on China's information industry and photovoltaic industry The bottleneck problem of industrial development.

At the same time, compared with the international advanced level, the polysilicon manufacturing companies in the industrialization gap is still very large, mainly in the following areas:

1, low production capacity, outstanding contradiction between supply and demand. In 2005, the operating rate of Chinese solar monocrystalline silicon companies was between 20% and 30%, and the operating rate of single-crystal silicon companies for semiconductors was between 80% and 90%, and full-load production could not be achieved. The polysilicon technology and market remained firmly in the United States. Japan and Germany, a small number of manufacturers, seriously restrict the development of China's industries.

2, the production scale is small. The currently recognized minimum economic size is 1,000 tons/year, and the optimal economic scale is 2,500 tons/year. However, at present, the polysilicon production enterprises in China are still far away from this scale.

3, behind the process equipment. The consumption of materials and power of similar products is too large, and there are many problems in the three wastes. Compared with the international level, domestic polysilicon production material consumption is more than 1 times higher, and product cost is less competitive.

4, innovation ability is not strong. Local governments and corporate projects are investing in polysilicon projects, but their technological innovation capability is not strong, and basic research funding is too low. This is especially true for non-standard equipment, which has poor R&D and manufacturing capabilities and the potential for low-level redundant construction.

Faced with many development bottlenecks, how can the domestic polysilicon industry get out of the difficulties?

Li Shengmao, a senior research fellow at China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., said that first of all, the government departments should formulate a development plan for the polysilicon industry based on their own research and extensive listening to the opinions of all parties, so as to guide the development of the domestic polysilicon industry in an orderly manner.

Second, polysilicon production companies must effectively improve the relevant technology, strengthen energy-saving emission reduction efforts, and enhance the geographical adaptability of the polysilicon industry.

Finally, the polysilicon industry must widely implement the business model of selling to production, so that the overall market supply and demand balance. At present, China's photovoltaic module enterprises with large amounts of silicon have basically signed long-term supply contracts with several large polysilicon manufacturers. This model is worth promoting.