After the TPP agreement is reached, China's exports of low-end and mid-range products such as textiles and clothing and electronic products to North America are facing competitive substitution in Vietnam, Malaysia and Mexico. China exports high-end products such as semiconductors, computers, machinery and equipment to mobile phones in Southeast Asia. Facing the day...
After the TPP agreement is reached, China's exports of low-end and mid-range products such as textiles and clothing and electronic products to North America are facing competitive substitution in Vietnam, Malaysia and Mexico. China's exports of high-end products such as semiconductors, computers, machinery and equipment to mobile phones in Southeast Asia are facing Japan, the United States squeezed. The short-term impact is limited and cannot be ignored in the long run. On October 5, the 12-nation economic and trade ministers of the United States issued a joint statement announcing the conclusion of the negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), which lasted more than five years, and reached a basic agreement.
The TPP has made substantial progress, and it will take some time from the completion of the negotiations to the final approval and implementation of the national parliaments. The US-led TPP is both an economic strategy and a diplomatic strategy. The focus of the world economy is shifting from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Rim, facing the growing influence of China in the Asia-Pacific region. In recent years, the Obama administration has adopted a strategic eastward move and integrated two-wing and two-wing (TPP, TTIP) strategy, from military and trade. It will squeeze China's external development space, expand its political and economic interests in the Asia-Pacific region, and regain its dominant position.
TPP is essentially a regional free trade integration agreement, not only to eliminate trade barriers, but also to cover trade terms such as environmental protection, government procurement, intellectual property, investment, etc., is a higher standard trade agreement. Currently, it includes 12 member states including the United States, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Peru, and Chile, covering 40% of the world's economic scale.
Possible impact of TPP on China:
First, due to the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers between member states, the long-term trend towards zero tariffs has triggered a trade transfer effect. The specific impact depends on the competitiveness and mutual substitution between China and other TPP members. China's exports of low-end and mid-range products such as textiles and clothing and electronic products to North America are facing competitive substitution in Vietnam, Malaysia and Mexico. China's exports of high-end products such as semiconductors, computers, machinery and equipment to mobile phones in Southeast Asia are facing the squeeze of Japan and the United States. After pressing, there is a strong enemy and there is a tendency to pursue the situation. The short-term impact is limited and cannot be ignored in the long run;
Second, with the cost reduction and trade transfer between member states, FDI may also be transferred, but the industrial chain relying on China's huge market and strong manufacturing capacity is less affected;
Third, China’s influence and voice in the Asia-Pacific region have been weakened.
China's possible future response: Accelerate the China-Japan-ROK FTA negotiations, the East Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) negotiations; accelerate the construction and functioning of all the way, the AIIB, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, etc.; accelerate the China-US investment agreement (BIT) negotiations, the two sides exchanged their negative list improvement bids on September 11, but there are still many differences. China hopes that the United States will increase investment in China in the high-tech manufacturing sector. The US believes that China should increase its service industry. US openness.
It is dangerous to have a basic agreement that the TPP negotiations without China's accession will increase the urgency of domestic reform and opening up. The biggest reform is openness, open reform, and if the success of the past three decades is the success of manufacturing openness, the success of the next three decades will be the success of the service industry. Openness includes both the opening of foreign international capital, the opening of private capital, and the introduction of competition mechanisms.
China’s huge trade deficit in high-tech fields and the increasing purchasing power of outbound travel indicate that domestic demand is not demand but effective supply. The service industry areas that will be further opened in the future include: finance, medical care, communications, the Internet, military-to-civilian, education, and media. (The author of this article: Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute Managing Director, Chief Macro Analyst, China Finance 40 People Forum invited researcher, China New Supply 50 Forum Forum, Renmin University of China part-time researcher, etc.. Previously served as the Macro Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. Deputy Director of the Research Office.)
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