From April onwards, the National Bureau of Statistics will release seasonally adjusted four-digit statistical indicators of gross domestic product (GDP), industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) and total retail sales of consumer goods. Peng Zhilong, director of the National Bureau of Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, said on the 8th that in monthly or quarterly statistics, the growth rate of statistical indicators is divided into year-on-year speed and ring-wise speed according to the different base periods. The year-on-year speed is easy to calculate, but because of the long interval between the two comparison periods (monthly data interval of 11 months, quarterly data interval of 3 quarters), it is not convenient to reflect the recent changes in the economy. Compared with the year-on-year speed, the base period is different from the same period of last year. The comparison base period of the ring speed is the adjacent previous period, which can reflect the short-term economic changes more sensitively and better serve the macro decision-making and analysis. At present, most developed countries carry out ring-count statistics on major economic indicators, and make seasonal adjustments, and release ring-by-quarter statistics. However, for a long time, most of the monthly and quarterly statistical indicators in China only calculate the year-on-year speed. Peng Zhilong said that in order to adapt to the rapid development of China's economy and society and strengthen and improve the statistical system, the National Bureau of Statistics conducted a comprehensive research on ring-based statistics from the beginning of 2009. After repeated demonstrations, it determined the seasonal adjustment method with Chinese characteristics and developed the National Bureau of Statistics. Seasonal adjustment software NBS-SA, and based on the importance of indicators, data availability and seasonal characteristics, selected GDP, industrial added value above designated size, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) and total retail sales of social consumer goods The indicators carry out ring statistics. He said that the difficulty in carrying out the comparative work of the ring is that the seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival and other moving holidays affect the comparability of the data in the adjacent two periods. The ring data generally needs to process the original statistical data through the seasonal adjustment model. Eliminate the effects of seasonal factors. When the seasonal factors are removed, the selected seasonal adjustment model is different from the parameter determination method in the model, and the obtained loop ratio statistics will be different. At the same time, since the seasonal adjustment object is time series data, when any month or quarter data in the time series changes, or the data of the latest period is added, the seasonal adjustment result will be affected by the automatic correction of the seasonal adjustment model. In this regard, Sheng Laiyun, director of the National Bureau of Statistics of the National Economic Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, stressed that the statistical data of the ring has to be revised several times, which is an objective requirement of statistical technology. He said that for the convenience of users, from April onwards, while the current period data is released, the National Bureau of Statistics website will release the current year-on-year data of the model automatically revised. In addition, Peng Zhilong said that the fluctuations of the ring statistics are usually greater than the fluctuations of the year-on-year statistics. For example, the US GDP in the four quarters of 2010 was 2.4%, 3.0%, 3.2%, and 2.7%, respectively, while the GDP ratio was 3.7%, 1.7%, 2.6%, and 2.8%, respectively. Therefore, when using loop data for economic analysis, you should not only look at one month or quarter of the ring data, but should continuously observe the ring time data for a period of time.
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