**The market outlook is expected to continue to warm up

On September 13th, Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies successively raised ** prices, and the domestic mainstream transaction price reached 6,600 to 6,700 yuan (t price, the same below). This time, the market formed a quick and easy bottoming rebound, which was reduced from 6,800 yuan on the 8th to 6,500 yuan, and then quickly reversed. Within a week, a typical "V" trend was observed. Taking into consideration the situation of all parties, the recovery of the market outlook is expected to continue, and the domestic transaction platform may again rise.

First, the market fell back to release the market risk. Sinopec and PetroChina's two major benzene companies reduced their prices by 200 to 300 yuan around September 8 respectively, reducing the company's inventory pressure. The release of goods by traders has accelerated the risk of the market bottoming out. It is reported that since the end of August, the continuous decline in port inventory, mainly because of the impact of the two major domestic companies to lower prices, traders shipping prices fell to about 6,400 yuan, some of the larger stocks of the transaction price is even lower, and heavy volume transactions. According to incomplete statistics, as of the beginning of September, the port inventories fell by more than 30%, which laid a certain foundation for the follow-up market to go well.

Second, the external disk is expected to take a good step and exports may increase. In mid-September, international spot prices were consolidated at around US$850, and the transaction volume was stable. From the end of September to November, the price of ** was US$850-880 (South Korea's FOB), showing a continuous upward trend. In terms of transaction volume, the demand for ** from November to December has been magnified. At the same time, due to the overhaul plan of some aromatic pipelines from foreign manufacturers, the international supply has a downward trend. For example, Japan's JFE produces 1.2 million tons of aromatic hydrocarbons per year. September 13 On the 20th of the next month, the Japanese parking system will be repaired. The annual output of the plant will be 214,000 tons. The equipment will be repaired for 30 days in late September. It was also learned that in the past month, more than 30,000 tons of ** were sent from Asia to the United States and other places, further reducing the availability of supplies in Asia. Therefore, the Asian arbitrage window is expected to open, does not rule out the possibility of domestic exports to increase exports, and then lead to tight domestic supply.

Third, the volume of domestic goods has declined. It is understood that some Sinopec and PetroChina stocks have been transferred to traders and port warehouses in early September. The pressure on the company’s inventory has been effectively released, and it is not ruled out that some of the port stocks will have export plans. Sales companies in some parts of Sinopec have limited The total amount of external shipments prepared for the system's own use. Therefore, the availability of domestic commodities in September may show a downward trend, which is expected to push the market to rebound again.

Fourth, the downstream demand is magnified. Starting in mid-September, styrene, which is the largest consumer product of pure benzene, gradually recovered, and companies or devices that have been shut down for maintenance were also opened one after another. This will inevitably increase the purchase of pure benzene; the aniline enterprises will be promoted by the market and start construction. The rate has also increased significantly, and the demand for pure benzene continues to increase. Others such as phenol, bisphenol A, and cyclohexanone also need to be stable. These are the biggest motivators to drive the ** market well.

Thanks to the revival of petroleum benzene, the domestic market for hydrogenated benzene, refined benzene and other alternatives has also been actively traded, and the operating rate has gradually increased, and there may be a phenomenon that alternatives are dragging on the market. However, due to the elimination of outdated production capacity in the coking industry in September, it will limit the supply of crude benzene for hydrogenation of benzene raw materials, and its operating rate cannot be effectively magnified to a certain extent, weakening the degree of negative impact.