First, the profit growth of the oil extraction industry continued to decline, and the decline in the profits of the petroleum processing industry narrowed.
From January to August, the oil and natural gas extraction industry's profits increased by 93.2% year-on-year, an increase of 73.6 percentage points over the first five months; from January to September, the oil and natural gas extraction industry's profits rose 81.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1 - In August, it dropped again by 17 percentage points, of which the monthly profit in September fell again. This year's international crude oil price fluctuations narrowed, and most of the time it ran between US$70-85. Even after the Fed implemented the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, the price of oil did not rise significantly, and the trend was weaker than other commodities.
From the perspective of demand, the economic recovery in emerging countries has been rapid, and oil demand has recovered to the level before the financial crisis as a whole, and the increase in oil prices has been weak. The main reason is that the increase in oil supply has stabilized the price. China's crude oil output increased by 6.1% year-on-year to the end of October, which was higher than the increase in previous years. OPEC crude oil production increased, and the reduction in production reduction rate has dropped from 82.4% in March last year to about 55%. From the current situation analysis, the international crude oil price in the fourth quarter may still fluctuate around the current more than 80 US dollars, and the profit growth of the oil and natural gas extraction industry in the year will continue to fall.
This year, the domestic refined oil market fluctuates greatly. Affected by the macro-control, apparent growth in the first half of the year continued to fall, profits of the petroleum processing industry declined, profits of the petroleum processing industry fell by 25.7% from the same period in the first five months of the month, and profits declined in January-August. Further expand to 39.1%. In the past two months, the situation has changed significantly. The demand for refined oil products has increased significantly. Diesel consumption has been booming. Social diesel inventories have fallen and remained at a low level. In October, diesel production increased substantially but still failed to ease. The important reason for this situation is that in some regions, the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†energy-saving indicators have been used to limit electricity consumption, resulting in a substantial increase in the demand for diesel for power generation. Since the energy-saving emission reduction efforts by the end of December will not be significantly relaxed, the Diesel tension caused by electricity restriction may not be significantly alleviated in the short term.
From the perspective of industry efficiency, the profitability of the petroleum processing industry in August and September significantly improved. In August, the decline in the profits of the petroleum processing industry significantly narrowed, and the profit in September decreased. In August and September, the profits of the petroleum processing industry also increased significantly compared with that in July. It is expected that the profits of the petroleum processing industry in the fourth quarter will stop rising year-on-year, but the decline in profit for the whole year will not change.
From January to August, the oil and natural gas extraction industry's profits increased by 93.2% year-on-year, an increase of 73.6 percentage points over the first five months; from January to September, the oil and natural gas extraction industry's profits rose 81.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1 - In August, it dropped again by 17 percentage points, of which the monthly profit in September fell again. This year's international crude oil price fluctuations narrowed, and most of the time it ran between US$70-85. Even after the Fed implemented the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, the price of oil did not rise significantly, and the trend was weaker than other commodities.
From the perspective of demand, the economic recovery in emerging countries has been rapid, and oil demand has recovered to the level before the financial crisis as a whole, and the increase in oil prices has been weak. The main reason is that the increase in oil supply has stabilized the price. China's crude oil output increased by 6.1% year-on-year to the end of October, which was higher than the increase in previous years. OPEC crude oil production increased, and the reduction in production reduction rate has dropped from 82.4% in March last year to about 55%. From the current situation analysis, the international crude oil price in the fourth quarter may still fluctuate around the current more than 80 US dollars, and the profit growth of the oil and natural gas extraction industry in the year will continue to fall.
This year, the domestic refined oil market fluctuates greatly. Affected by the macro-control, apparent growth in the first half of the year continued to fall, profits of the petroleum processing industry declined, profits of the petroleum processing industry fell by 25.7% from the same period in the first five months of the month, and profits declined in January-August. Further expand to 39.1%. In the past two months, the situation has changed significantly. The demand for refined oil products has increased significantly. Diesel consumption has been booming. Social diesel inventories have fallen and remained at a low level. In October, diesel production increased substantially but still failed to ease. The important reason for this situation is that in some regions, the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†energy-saving indicators have been used to limit electricity consumption, resulting in a substantial increase in the demand for diesel for power generation. Since the energy-saving emission reduction efforts by the end of December will not be significantly relaxed, the Diesel tension caused by electricity restriction may not be significantly alleviated in the short term.
From the perspective of industry efficiency, the profitability of the petroleum processing industry in August and September significantly improved. In August, the decline in the profits of the petroleum processing industry significantly narrowed, and the profit in September decreased. In August and September, the profits of the petroleum processing industry also increased significantly compared with that in July. It is expected that the profits of the petroleum processing industry in the fourth quarter will stop rising year-on-year, but the decline in profit for the whole year will not change.