A new round of the leaps and bounds of the photovoltaic industry

The new round of “Great Leap Forward” in China's PV industry has rapidly formed.

On March 16, the National Energy Administration issued a notice to formally adjust the scale of the new PV power plant construction in 2015 to 17.8GW, which is equivalent to the total installed capacity of the Three Gorges Project. At the beginning of the consultation period, the construction scale was only 15GW.

This situation is very different from 2014. Last year, the National Energy Administration initially planned to add 14 GW of installed capacity, but only completed 3.3 GW in the first half of the year. The Energy Bureau then lowered its target to 10 GW, eventually achieving 10.6 GW. Even so, the final statistics show that in 2014 China's new PV installed capacity accounted for about one-fifth of the world's total, accounting for about one-third of China's photovoltaic module production.

"Compared to 2014, China's PV industry set an annual growth rate target of more than 70% in 2015, which is a very aggressive goal." An industry expert who did not want to be named said that China's PV industry's new round of leap forward may have jumped. On paper.

2014: Say goodbye to sorrow

If the Chinese PV industry in 2013 is still “sad and sorrowful”, then 2014 has already “turned around”.

According to the ranking of “Top Ten Global PV Module Suppliers in 2014” published by HIS, the authoritative market research organization in the United States, Trina Solar has surpassed Yingli Green Energy for the first time in its history to become the world's largest supplier of PV modules; “Global Ten Among the big ones, Chinese manufacturers occupy 6 seats, and the United States and Japan each hold 2 seats. Compared with 2013, Jingao ranks the largest in terms of rankings. In 2014, it ranked fifth in the world, and its shipments doubled compared with 2013. The growth rate is faster than other "nine".

As of March 20, 2015, six of the “Top Ten Global” manufacturers have announced their 2014 results in Trina Solar, Artes Solar, Jinko Energy, JA Solar, and Huihui Sunshine. Report, and the collective performance is good.

According to financial data, in terms of PV module shipments, Trina Solar, Artes Solar, Jinko Energy, JA Solar, and Huihui Sunshine reached 3.66GW, 3.11GW, 2.94GW, 2.4GW, and 1.97GW, respectively. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of Trina Solar, JA Solar and Suihui Sunshine reached 41.9%, 105% and 14.0% respectively.

Of the performance reports of the above-mentioned several manufacturers, four gave gross profit margin data. The gross profit margins of Trina, Jingke, Jingao and Yuhui increased from 12.3%, 20.3%, 10.6%, and 7.4% in 2013 to 16.9%, 22.4%, 15.6%, and 13.4% in 2014, respectively.

From the perspective of net profit, it can better reflect the “peak turn” of major domestic PV manufacturers in 2014. According to financial data, Tianhe and Jingao respectively lost from US$72.24 million, RMB426.5 million (6.2150, 0.0042, 0.07%) in 2013 to 2014 profit of US$61.26 million and RMB446 million, achieving a gorgeous turn; The net profit of Sis, Jingke and Qihui expanded from US$31.7 million, 188 million yuan and US$113.1 million in 2013 to US$239 million, US$673 million and US$209.3 million in 2014 respectively.

“In 2014, we achieved strong performance in both manufacturing and downstream business, and we have become one of the largest solar module suppliers in the world.” Gao Jifan, chairman and CEO of Trina Solar, believes that the reason for achieving this performance is “tight” Seize the business opportunities in the domestic market and expand the share of the Asia-Pacific and the Americas market."

Yan Xiaoying, chairman and CEO of Artes Solar, said that the company’s fiscal year 2014 was a record year for the company’s solar project sales, solar module shipments, revenue, net profit, and free cash flow. All reach new heights.

2015: Vigilance and arrogance

The National Energy Administration recently issued the "Notice on the Implementation Plan for the Construction of Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2015", which has determined the scale of the construction of new photovoltaic power plants nationwide in 2015 to be 17.8GW, which is 720MW higher than the actual new scale in 2014, compared with 2015. The 15GW target for the “Draft for Comment” issued at the beginning of the year was also 280MW higher. In addition, the biggest difference in the 2015 plan is that the “Notice” did not set specific installation targets for centralized power stations and distributed power stations. During the interview, this change was well received by respondents.

“This is undoubtedly a good news for the industry.” An insider of a major domestic PV company accepted an interview with the China Business Journal. The 2014 target downgrade is the result of multiple factors superimposed and digested and adjusted after one year. Now, the short board that hinders the installation has been improved, and the goal of achieving 2015 is not a big problem.

“In 2015, we will continue to focus on technological innovation, enhance performance through a diversified portfolio of components, and adjust our global resources to strengthen our leading position in the component field while further expanding the ground and distributed downstream markets.” Gao Jifan said publicly.

The aforementioned PV industry insiders told reporters that in the first three quarters of 2014, the installed capacity of PV in China was actually only 400MW. In the last quarter, the “grab-loading” scale exceeded 600MW, and the newly-built construction scale of 10.6GW was finally realized; because the National Energy Administration In 2015, we will conduct an assessment of the completion of the annual plan. It is expected that in 2015, the domestic “preemptive loading” of photovoltaics will be staged.

Based on this expectation, major domestic PV manufacturers will further “surge ahead” in capacity expansion. The data shows that Trina will fully expand its production capacity in 2015. Among them, the capacity of silicon ingots expanded from 1.7GW at the beginning of 2014 to 2.8GW in 2015; the output of solar cells increased from 2.5GW at the beginning of 2014 to 3GW at the end of 2014, and will further expand to 3.5GW in 2015; component production will expand in 2015. 800MW reached 4.8GW.

Artes has publicly expressed its willingness to replace Trina Solar as a global market leader in 2015. The company plans to put into operation two plants in Changshu and Luoyang with an additional capacity of 500MW, which is expected to be the first in 2015. After the new capacity is launched in the second quarter, the total component capacity will reach 3.5GW. At the same time, the company plans to expand its total battery capacity to 1.9GW in 2015.

Although Jingke did not disclose the capacity expansion of its silicon wafers and batteries, the company plans to increase its production capacity by 640 MW to 800 MW to 4 GW in terms of component size. JA Solar also plans to expand its solar cell and module capacity by 20% in 2015.

"The collapse of the photovoltaic industry a few years ago, the bankruptcy tide seems to be still yesterday, especially in Wuxi Suntech, Jiangxi Saiwei, Yingli and other representative enterprises because of the huge losses brought about by blind expansion," in the eyes of many insiders The new wave of expansion of the domestic PV industry induced by policy factors should cause vigilance to practitioners.

Relevant forecasts show that, according to the price of 8.5 yuan / watt, the domestic PV installed market will exceed 150 billion yuan in 2015. The reporter further combed the major PV companies' 2015 plan and found that the Chinese PV industry, which has just “recovered” from the overcapacity mud, has once again fallen into the “madness” of capacity expansion. In 2015, only for PV modules, major manufacturers such as Trina, Jingke, Jingao and Artus plan to add 800MW, 640~800MW, 600MW and 500MW respectively, so that their annual output will reach 4.8GM in 2015. 4GM, 3.6GM, 3.5GM.

The expert said that some of the notorious garbage companies in the photovoltaic industry will soon die out during the rush.

The winter of the photovoltaic industry has quietly gone, and a new wave of installed surges has surged.

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